SOYBEANS
The USDA’s Crop Production and Supply/Demand Report this morning was considered somewhat bullish for soybeans with the early opening calls at 25-30 higher based in part on the lower dollar and strong action in the soybean complex overnight. The USDA pegged the US soybean yield at 40 bushels per acre compared to 40.5 bushels per acre on the August report. This lowers the US soybean crop to 2.934 billion bushels compared with 2.973 billion bushels last month and 2.585 billion bushels last year. Ending stocks were left unchanged at 135 million bushels while beginning stocks were raised 5 million to 140 million bushels. Traders expected ending stocks near 145 million. While the USDA revised crop production lower by 39 million bushels, demand was also revised lower with the crush down 30 million. World ending stocks were adjusted higher to 51.23 million tonnes from 49.28 million last month as Argentina production was revised 1 million tonnes higher and beginning stocks were higher. China import demand was left unchanged at 36 million tonnes despite the adjustment higher in production.
CORN
The report this morning was considered supportive this morning with the market called 7-10 higher. The corn yield was put at 152.3 bu/acre compared to 155.0 bushels per acre on the August report and a trend line yield of 154.9. This pushed production to 12.072 billion bushels, down 216 million bushels from last month. Usage was revised lower by 100 million bushels due to an adjustment lower for feed. This put corn ending stocks at 1.018 billion bushels as compared to 1.133 billion bushels in August and 1.576 billion last year. This is a stocks/usage of 8.1% which is the second lowest in history behind 95/95. World ending stocks were pegged at just 109.9 million tonnes as compared with 112.4 million last month and 123.5 million tonnes last year. This is very tight.
WHEAT
The report this morning was neutral for wheat and the opening call is 8-12 cents higher based on outside markets and bullish overnight action in wheat. The USDA left production, usage and ending stocks levels. This leaves ending stocks at a moderate 574 million bushels. This also leaves the US stocks/usage ratio unchanged at 25.0% compared to 13.1% for 2007-08. World wheat production for 2008-09 came in at 676.28 compared to 670.75 million tonnes on the August report. This was mostly in line with recent trade estimates. Australian production was lowered to 22.0 million tonnes from 25.0 million tonnes last month in line with recent private forecasts. Argentina was lowered to 12.5 million tonnes compared to 13.5 last month. This was also about as expected. The EU wheat crop was raised to 147.19 million tonnes from 143.17 last month and this was also in line with recent trade and governmental updates in Europe. Canadian production was raised slightly and China production was left unchanged.
