Archive | August, 2009

Soybean Market Commentary – 2009.08.31

by on August 31, 2009

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Forecasts of good weather are dominating the news this morning along with weakness in crude oil and equities. Temperatures in the Midwest are expected to return to normal this week and then move to above normal through the middle of September. Experts indicate that these would be ideal conditions for the soybean crop. Most of the soybean crop is past the point of needing more moisture. It now simply needs enough heat to finish developing and to take it past the danger point from an early frost. One analyst pointed out that the theoretical amount of damage that could be done by a moderate freeze will start to decline substantially by the middle of September if temperatures stay at normal to above normal levels until then. Heavy rains fell in India’s soybean belt over the past few days. This gave the crop a major boost according to local sources, but more rain is needed over the next three weeks. The CFTC released its latest Commitments of Traders Report on Friday and it left the report’s format unchanged for now. The latest report was for the week ending August 25th and it showed mixed activity by funds. In soybeans, index funds were net buyers of 1,154 contracts. However, trend-following funds were net sellers of 3,705 contracts to decrease their net long position to 41,465. The trend-followers have moved to the net short side in corn in recent weeks and they have a record large net short position in wheat. In soybeans, they have been gradually moving to reduce their long position since early this summer. In oil, index funds were buyers of a scant 252 contracts. Trend-followers were net buyers of a robust 6,436 which reduced their net short position to 5,316. In meal, large non-commercial traders were net buyers of 1,272 contracts to increase their net long position to 38,375. Today was First Notice day for September futures contracts. Deliveries were Zero in soybeans and meal with oil deliveries starting at 7,640 contracts.

WEATHER: The short term forecast calls for a warm up to near normal temperature levels by the end of this week with a move to above normal through as late as mid September. Drought conditions have expanded in NE China according to government sources. Monsoon rains improved in India in recent days, especially in the soybean belt in central India where rains have been heavy in recent days.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The weather forecast is particularly important in that there is still the potential for a big boost in yield from the USDA’s August Crop Report, which would add substantially to the record soybean crop already being predicted by the USDA. Rains in India’s soybean belt in recent days are also adding to the potential world supply. Traders will be looking to see if China responds to a lower market with another round of big purchases to start the week. If they do, we may simply test support levels. However, if China is not a substantial buyer on the break, we could easily move to the July lows or lower in fairly short order. First support is in a fairly broad area from 970 to 982 in the November soybean contract, with the next support near 958 to 959. Resistance has dropped to near 999 and then 1025 to 1030.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: A shift to warmer weather through the middle of September beginning today has helped shift the short-term trend from up to down and until there are more cold weather threats on the horizon, sellers could be more active. The 100-day moving average is at 981 1/2 today and a close under this level could attract more selling. Selling resistance is at 998 1/4 with 940 1/4 and 910 1/2 as next support. December meal selling resistance is at 307.20 with 290.20 as next support.

What Market Commentary – 2009.08.31

by on August 31, 2009

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Wheat traded moderately lower overnight with traders crediting the weakness mainly to selling in soybeans and corn. Those markets were under pressure from favorable weather forecasts in the Midwest and weaker crude oil and equities. Weather is also expected to be favorable in the northern Plains of the US which is considered very favorable to the late developing spring wheat crop there. There is a possibility of cooler weather and some rain starting next week, however, there does not seem to be a serious threat of frost in the near term forecasts. One analyst pointed out that the greatest threat to the spring wheat crop at this point may be an extended period of rain, rather than an early frost, but current forecasts do not call for heavy rains. India is approaching its wheat planting season with sub-par moisture levels in a number of major wheat-growing areas from north central through extreme northern India. In Australia, private forecasters are still pegging the wheat crop at near 23 million tonnes despite concerns over El Nino. The CFTC left the format unchanged on its latest Commitments of Traders Report. It showed mixed activity by funds. Index funds were net buyers of 1,713 contracts while trend-followers were net sellers of 1,546. This pushed the trend followers’ net short position to a new record high of 59,182. Today is the First Notice Day for the September contract and wheat deliveries were higher than expected at 5,464 contracts.

WEATHER: Mostly warmer and dry weather is forecast calls for warmer and mostly dry weather in the northern Plains with the possibility of rain and cooler weather starting next week.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The COT report showed another increase in the record large net short position held by trend-following funds, and this suggest that it may get harder to find fresh sellers in coming weeks, unless farmers dump their crops or the dollar rallies. This does not indicate that the wheat market is ready to turn higher, just that it is not likely to have much momentum to the down side. Next support in the December is near 483 with 473 1/2 as next swing objective. First resistance is at 508 and then at 520 and 528.

Corn Market Commentary – 2009.08.31

by on August 31, 2009

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Forecasts of warmer weather in the Midwest through as late as the middle of September helped to pressure the corn market overnight. Traders said that weakness in crude oil and equities added to the selling pressure. One analyst noted that the current forecast moves the threat of a frost onto a back burner at this point, especially in corn which is farther advanced than soybeans. Last week’s crop progress reports showed 18% of the corn crop at the dent stage, which means that it is free from the threat of frost damage. If weather remains warm through mid September, well over half the corn crop will be safe from frost. The CFTC released its latest Commitments of Traders Report on Friday and it left the report’s format unchanged for now. The latest report is for the week ending 8/25 and it showed trend-following funds moving more clearly to the net short side. They were net sellers of 21,467 contracts which increased their net short position to 22,952 contracts. These large traders have made big swings back and forth in terms of net buying and selling in recent years, but the trend has actually been in the direction of net selling since early 2007. Index funds were net buyers of 5,689. Today is First Notice Day for September futures contracts and there were zero deliveries in corn. Official weather sources in China indicate that the drought there has expanded both in the major growing areas of the NE as well as in the south. It is getting late in the crop development cycle in the north, just as it is in the US, so the lack of rain is starting to lock in reduced yield potential in corn and soybeans.

CASH NEWS AND TENDERS: The USDA announced a sale of 105,000 tonnes of corn to South Korea yesterday and Malaysia bought 60,000 tonnes of corn from Brazil this week.

WEATHER: The short term forecast calls for a warm up to near normal temperature levels by the end of this week with a move to above normal through as late as mid September. Drought conditions have expanded in NE China according to government sources. Monsoon rains improved in India in recent days, especially in the soybean belt in central India where rains have been heavy in recent days.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The corn crop is less vulnerable to frost threats, so the current warm forecast is somewhat less negative for corn this morning than it is for soybeans. However, last week’s price action looked less and less like bottoming as the week wore on, and this suggests that new lows are coming. A look at the wheat market shows just how far trend-following funds can tip to the short side, and this suggests that there may be a lot more room for fund selling. First support in the December contract is at 311 1/2 and then 302 1/2. First resistance remains at 334 to 335 1/2 with the next resistance at 340 to 344 and at 349 1/2.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Short-term selling resistance for December corn comes in at 327 1/4 and a move under the August low would leave 301 1/2 and 291 1/2 as next downside objectives.

Silver Market Commentary – 2008.08.28

by on August 28, 2009

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OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: With international equity markets extending the recovery action seen in the US equity markets yesterday afternoon and mostly favorable economic news seen again overnight, it would seem like most physical commodity markets are benefiting from favorable bids into the early US Friday action. However, the Dollar wasn’t definitively lower in response to the ongoing strength in equities and that might temper some of the overall bullishness for gold and silver prices in the early going today. On the other hand, several US equity market measures seem to be poised to challenge highs for the year later today and with the trade generally expecting favorable US economic data flows this morning, the bull camp in precious metals seems to have more outside market information in its corner than the bear camp. While the trade generally expects to see favorable Personal Spending and Income readings, that potentially positive flow of economic news might be countervailed in the event that US inflation readings this morning are somewhat soft.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: While many traders will suggest that a pattern of declines in silver exchange stocks this week is largely unimportant, that news does seem to dovetail with a generally favorable economic environment. The bull camp might also point to the initial move to the highest levels since August 17th in December silver today as a positive indication for the trade later today. However, the silver bulls are probably somewhat discouraged by minor initial gains in the US Dollar this morning. Another issue that could undermine the silver bulls in the early going today is the news of a decline in silver holdings at a noted silver ETF. Like the gold market, the silver market seems to be behaving like a classic physical commodity, which has recently seen mostly favorable economic information. In the end, silver prices have seemingly tightened their positive correlation with the equity markets.

Gold Market Commentary – 2008.08.29

by on August 28, 2009

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OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: With international equity markets extending the recovery action seen in the US equity markets yesterday afternoon and mostly favorable economic news seen again overnight, it would seem like most physical commodity markets are benefiting from favorable bids into the early US Friday action. However, the Dollar wasn’t definitively lower in response to the ongoing strength in equities and that might temper some of the overall bullishness for gold and silver prices in the early going today. On the other hand, several US equity market measures seem to be poised to challenge highs for the year later today and with the trade generally expecting favorable US economic data flows this morning, the bull camp in precious metals seems to have more outside market information in its corner than the bear camp. While the trade generally expects to see favorable Personal Spending and Income readings, that potentially positive flow of economic news might be countervailed in the event that US inflation readings this morning are somewhat soft.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: While the gold trade might look to garner some support from news that a Platinum strike in South Africa was set to continue, the company and the union were not that far apart in their negotiations. Furthermore, unless the strike at the Impala mine were to spread to other mines, it would seem like the gold trade will remain mostly uninterested in the potential supply side threat. Clearly the gold market remains focused on the direction of the equity markets and therefore the meanderings of the US Dollar today might not be that important to the gold trade. Some traders suggest that it could take a slide in the September Dollar index below the recent low of 77.81, to make the action in the currency markets critical to the gold trade. Most of all, the gold market this week seems to be paying a lot of attention to classic physical commodity market fundamentals and that in turn suggests the bull camp in gold is still heavily reliant on a continuation of the recovery view.

Energy Market Commentary – 2009.08.28

by on August 28, 2009

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CRUDE OIL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Oct crude oil has added solid gains in the overnight trade following yesterday’s sharp upward price reversal after holding a test of key support near $70. While it was clear that the oil market ran into a wall of resistance at the $75 price level earlier in the week, seeing equity markets stall out near 10 month highs also seemed to shake the confidence of the bull camp and had traders questioning the fundamental value of crude oil in light of the market’s ample supply/weak demand setup. Yesterday’s sell off in crude oil looked to be tied to a general commodity liquidation wave triggered by the early weakness in equities rather than a major turn in sentiment. In fact, with oil’s price direction still highly linked to equity market trends, it wasn’t too surprising to see Oct crude oil vault higher as upside momentum in the stock market started to build. It also looks like part of the sharp recovery in oil is technically based since Oct crude oil basically held a test of the $70 support level and that seems to have triggered a fresh wave of speculative buying. The free fall in the Dollar yesterday has likely been another factor raising investor risk appetite for crude oil as an inflation hedge. With generally better than expected economic news seen so far this week and more importantly with equities back near 10 month highs, this situation would seem to give the bull camp in oil the edge again. It is also possible that news of some refinery issues and a forecast for OPEC exports to decline into early September may be providing some additional price support to crude oil. The sharp reversal action amid overnight price gains leaves Oct crude oil in a good technical position to retest the Aug highs. But the move to higher price levels will certainly require strong upward leadership in equities, a generally weaker Dollar and a flow of news that continues to build macro economic optimism. Otherwise, without a strong equity market raising hopes for a recovery in fuel demand, the oil market’s bearish fundamental setup including offshore oil supplies estimated at around 80 million barrels, hardly justifies prices up at these high levels. Look for the bull camp in oil to get a fresh resolve as long as equities can rally as that has the potential to lift oil back to test $75. Resistance for Oct crude oil comes in at $73.57 then around $74 and above there near $74.51 with support at near $72.49 then $72.10 and below there near $71.21.

PRODUCT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: GASOLINE: Oct gasoline has also been able to follow through higher overnight after yesterday’s impressive price recovery leaving the market in a stronger technical position. Despite the sharp price swings this week Oct gasoline remains confined within a well defined trading range. However, seeing the market hold critical support at the $1.80 level in yesterday’s trade again puts gasoline in a position to retest this week’s highs. Generally bullish economic news this week and more importantly, the gains in equity markets have been the main factors behind the price recovery in gasoline giving the market renewed hope for a revival in fuel demand. But on a fundamental basis there is a good chance for gasoline demand to weaken this fall. In fact, Labor Day holiday driving is expected to be down by more than 13% compared to year ago. Therefore, the low refinery operating rate may not significantly tighten fuel supplies which are currently at a comfortable level. If the fundamentals for gasoline fail to improve, we suspect the market will need a steady stream of good economic news and equity market gains to build strong enough optimism toward fuel demand in order to lift Oct gasoline back into the upper end of the consolidation range between $1.9381 and $1.9520. Support for Oct gasoline comes in near $1.8850 then $1.8687 with resistance at $1.9255.

HEATING OIL: The higher price action in Oct heating oil overnight after the market was basically able to hold a test of support around $1.84 leaves the market in a position to migrate back towards the upper end of the consolidation range near $1.96. With the dollar still near recent lows and if equities can make another thrust higher the path of least resistance for heating oil should remain up even though the supply/demand setup remains quite bearish. In fact, the heating oil market has been mostly able to push aside the fact that distillate supplies are near 25 year highs while industrial demand continues to slide and instead focus on an improving macro economic picture. Therefore, if equities continue to gain upside traction and today’s economic reports promote more optimism toward a recovery in fuel demand, it should feed the speculative buying interest in heating oil.

TODAY’S ENERGY MARKET GUIDANCE: It is clear that oil market direction remains closely tied to the ebb and flow of equities. If equities gain upside traction this session and the S&P is lifted to a new high for the move, there is likely to be a strong bullish response in the oil markets.

Hog Market Commentary – 2009.08.27

by on August 27, 2009

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The market seems to have plenty of downside potential just ahead “if” there is additional liquidation from producers. While we have seen a strong recovery in pork values and a decent bounce in futures, it is probably not enough to avoid further producer herd-reduction selling which will probably be forced by bankers. In addition, the lower than expected slaughter for the third day in a row this week is likely related to weak packer demand and not a lack of supply, and with hefty weights already, slower packer demand at a time when seasonal supply is on the rise is likely to lead to a further backup of market ready hogs in the country. October hogs pushed sharply lower on the session yesterday, as traders just did not believe that the industry can slip by without further liquidation of the US hog herd. The CME Lean Hog Index as of August 24 came in at 49.12, down 9 cents from the previous session and down from 49.02 the week before. This leaves October at only a slight discount to the cash market as opposed to a normal discount of 600-800 points for this time of the year. The estimated hog slaughter came in at 421,000 head yesterday. This brings the total for the week so far to 1.264 million head, down from 1.288 million last week at this time and down from 1.299 million a year ago. Pork cutout values, released after the close yesterday, came in at $56.05, down 32 cents from Tuesday but up from $51.69 the previous week. Average weights for the week ending August 22 came in at 267.2 pounds, up from 267.1 the previous week and up from 258.3 pounds last year. Feeder pig imports from Canada for the week ending August 15th came in at 86,664 head, down from 87,229 head the previous week and compared to a 4-week moving average of 114,748. Feeder pig imports for the year have reached 3.44 million head, down 21.0% from last year. A lack of much of a discount for October futures to cash despite the outlook for rising supply ahead added to the bearish tone.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Traders see the slowdown in slaughter this week as a reason to suspect slower packer demand, and this slowdown could cause a further backlog of market-ready hogs in the country, which could force weights even higher into the fall just as supply seasonally increases. Selling resistance for October hogs comes in at 47.92 with light support at 46.02 and 45.32. Keep 40.77 as longer-term downside objective.

Cattle Market Commentary – 2009.08.27

by on August 27, 2009

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Traders remain concerned over the longer term demand for beef, the possibility of “extra” pork to absorb into the fall due to liquidation in the pork sector and weak export demand. The market seems to have the supply fundamentals to work higher into the fall, but traders do not trust demand, and speculators were active sellers yesterday despite the recent improving demand and supply news. Beef prices have inched higher in the past few weeks and have reached their highest level since June 1st. Boxed beef cutout values were up 76 cents at mid-session yesterday and closed 62 cents higher at $144.35. This was up from $141.65 a week ago. October cattle collapsed to trade sharply lower on the session yesterday to the lowest level since June 19th, while December cattle set back to near the August lows. Follow-through technical selling from the weak technical action on Tuesday, the premium of futures to cash and the strong dollar were used as reasons for the selling. The market is now down as much as 215 points off of Tuesday’s highs despite stronger beef prices and expectations for higher trade in the cash market this week. The showlist for cattle is down this week, which should help support the cash cattle market. Higher beef prices and a tighter supply should push cash cattle to near $84.00-$85.00 this week from $83.50 tops last week. Fund and speculative selling, thought to be long liquidation, appeared to be the primary reason for the weakness yesterday, and there was a lack of new buying interest on the move under 88.35. The estimated cattle slaughter came in at 126,000 head, which was below trade expectations and suggests that packer demand is not as strong as traders have believed. This brings the total for the week so far to 380,000 head, up from 378,000 last week at this time but down from 382,000 a year ago.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: With packer margins improving and the cash market trend up, it was surprising to see such an aggressive sell-off in futures along with a jump in open interest to the highest level since October. It almost seems like large traders are making a big commitment to a short position and that this is NOT a long liquidation sell-off.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Trade sentiment seems too negative given the short-term positive cash fundamentals. Watch for signs of a near-term low in the December contract, but wait for more positive action before entering the market from the long side. December cattle has failed to hold support, and a move under the August lows counts down to 86.62 with resistance at 87.87. Stand aside for now, but watch for lows near 86.62 in the December contract.

Soybeans: Has the Tide Turned Against the Bull Market?

by on August 26, 2009

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Has the tide turned against the bull market in soybeans? The long term answer may be yes, and the reasons are weather and the economy. Just like last year, a wet and cool planting season got the soybean and corn crops off to a slow but well-watered start.

Last year, this was followed by regular forecasts of a hot, dry spell that were expected to damage the developing crop. But these forecasts never quite materialized, and the same thing has happened this year. In fact, the extra warmth that did occur in recent weeks this year has been quite beneficial to both corn and soybeans. Corn needed heat to add Growing Degree Days which are needed to produce an optimal yield, and soybeans also needed some extra heat simply to speed up plant (and pod) development in order to diminish the substantial risk posed by an early frost.

In addition, timely rains have fallen on much of the soybean crop this year just when it was most needed: during podsetting and pod filling stages. Corn also saw favorable rain and temperature conditions during its critical pollination period in late July and early August, and the USDA responded on the August crop report with a big 6.1 bushel per acre (4%) jump in the projected corn yield versus their July projection. Since soybeans develop later than corn, the August report did not reflect the improved condition of the soybean crop. That is likely to happen in September.

If the soybean yield is increased by 4% in September (from 41.7 bushels per acre in August), it would result in a new record high yield of 43.36 bushels per acre. The USDA already called for a record US soybean crop of 3.199 billion on the August report due to higher acreage, and a 4% yield increase in September would take the 2009/10 crop to a whopping new all-time high of 3.33 billion bushels.

Soybean Yield Projection

If we keep total soybean usage at the current projection, this would raise the 2009/10 ending soybean stocks to a burdensome 341 million bushels in 2009/10 versus the 110 million forecast for the soon-to-expire 2008/09 crop year. Actually, the USDA lowered crush and exports by 10 million bushels each on the August report. Many traders were skeptical about the reduction when the report was released, but a couple of weeks later this reduction makes a good deal more sense. One of the main indicators of softening demand was the July crush usage report issued by the National Oilseed Processors Association. NOPA issues monthly crush estimates that are released in advance of the larger and more official Census Bureau report. They estimated that the July crush was down sharply to just 120.9 million bushels, which was well below the lowest pre-report estimate. This projects to just 126.6 million bushels for the larger Census Bureau number, and that is a big red flag on demand. (See chart.)

US Census Soybean Crush

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Currency Market Commentary – 2009.08.26

by on August 26, 2009

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DOLLAR: The Dollar seems to have carved out some support just under the overnight lows, but in general the charts in the Dollar still seem to give off a bearish tilt. We also think that a lack of definitive favor in other currencies is providing the Dollar with some artificial support. However, unless the general expectations for a slow and gradual global recovery are discarded, we doubt that the Dollar is going to see anything other than temporary technical short covering gains. However, with the Dollar showing some minor positive action in the wake of a better than expected German Ifo reading overnight one gets the sense that the Dollar is set to make a weak recovery bounce, perhaps in the event that US equity prices weaken later today. In the end, rallies in the Dollar appear to opportunities to get short for an eventual continuation of the downtrend pattern. Unless the US scheduled data points today are surprisingly weak, we doubt that the September Dollar Index will be able to rise above 78.65 today.

EURO: While the Euro is showing some initial positive action this morning, the bull camp has to be partially discouraged by the failure to get a big lift from better than expected German Ifo readings. In fact, the August Ifo reading came in at 90.5 versus an 88.8 reading in the prior month and that should have resulted in more favor flowing toward the Euro. Up trend channel support in the September Euro this morning is seen at 142.75, but we doubt that as expected US data flows later this morning, will serve to yield a distinct upside pulse in the Euro today. In fact, we get the sense that the Euro is showing signs of losing a portion of its recent bullish momentum. Even in the face of weakness, it would appear that the Euro has a secondary close-in support zone down at 142.50 on the charts.

YEN: The yen has clearly lost a good portion of the bullish bias that was in place into the August 21st highs. As suggested in other currency coverage today, there seems to be a lack of leadership in the currency markets right now and that is probably the result of a lack of fresh fundamental psychology. Pushed into the market, we would look to get short the Yen today on a rally to resistance of 106.55, but it is possible that the September Yen will find fairly solid support on the charts down at 105.95.

SWISS: The Swiss also seems to have lost a portion of its bullish bias that was in control of the market into the August 21st highs. The bull camp can suggest that the market retains a fairly solid consolidation support zone just above the 94.00 level on the charts and therefore we would suggest that short term traders look to be buyers of an early setback in the Swiss.

POUND: Clearly the weakness in the Pound this morning presents the most definitive trend in the currency markets. In fact, despite decent economic news from the IFo, mostly favorable equity market action over the last week and ongoing expectations of a global recovery, the Pound has acted like anything but a recovery currency. In other words, the market sees the Pound to be over valued and anything short of a much stronger than expected recovery, looks to see the Pound weaken. In the event that economic doubt on the recovery escalates, we suspect that the rate of slide in the Pound will expand. Near term downside targeting in the September Pound is seen at 162.50 but we can’t rule out a return to the 160 level into the next US unemployment report.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: Like the Pound, the Canadian is vulnerable to even more declines directly ahead. In fact, without very sterling economic readings and sharply higher global equity prices today, we suspect that the September Canadian is poised for a slide back down to the 90 level.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: A lack of definitive leadership in the currency markets for the coming trading sessions.

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