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Follow through gains were seen again overnight and with a large number of talking heads this morning touting more seasonal strength today ahead of the coming holiday, we are somewhat skeptical that prices will be able to drive higher throughout the shortened trading session. However, the US scheduled data looks to be supportive and without a negative headline development to trip up the bull camp, it might be difficult to take control of this market away from the bull camp. Apparently the market either sees the potential passage of the Health care bill as a positive development, or perhaps the market is simply relieved that the uncertainty from the process is about to come to an end. News of merger and buyout activity has also contributed to the upward tilt this week, but it is also clear that a certain amount of buying this week was indeed the result of improved macro economic psychology. With the possible passage of the Health care reform effort, Citi and Wells Fargo repaying TARP and some signs of improvement in the jobs market in November, one can say that the US economy comes to the end of the year, in a much better position than it started the year. We suspect that early momentum will manage to carry the markets to a higher close, especially since the trade ends at mid session today.
S&P 500: Up trend channel resistance is seen up at 1121.70 today and that resistance rises to 1122.25 on Monday. At least in the early action today, traders should expect the bull camp to attempt to push prices even higher. However, we also get the sense that the market is becoming overbought and that the bull camp might need dual confirmation of a good economy, from the claims and durable goods reports just to leave the bulls in control for the entire shortened trading session. We would remain bullish until the March S&P falls back below the 1115.60.
DOW: All things considered, the action in the Mini Dow this week has been disappointing, as other sectors of the market have forged a series of fresh new highs for the year this week and the Mini Dow this morning sits as much as 80 points below the 2009 highs. Unfortunately for the bull camp, up trend channel support in the March Mini Dow doesn’t come in until the 10,278 level, with that support level rising to 10,298 on Monday. Initial resistance today in the March Mini Dow is seen at 10,450, but positive momentum in the rest of the market might serve to pull up the Dow slightly early this morning.
NASDAQ: News of ongoing merger and buyout activity, as well as favorable holiday sales expectations has given the tech sector an ongoing lift overnight. Up trend channel resistance in the March Nasdaq is seen at 1857.75 and that could serve as a profit taking point by some, especially if the next critical Health care vote is completed before the close today, as that could create a political anti climax of sorts.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Expect the bulls to control out of the gate but traders might bank profits if the early scheduled numbers fail to distinctly extend the rally.
Stock Market Commentary – 2009.12.24
by Dave Hightower on December 24, 2009
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
Follow through gains were seen again overnight and with a large number of talking heads this morning touting more seasonal strength today ahead of the coming holiday, we are somewhat skeptical that prices will be able to drive higher throughout the shortened trading session. However, the US scheduled data looks to be supportive and without a negative headline development to trip up the bull camp, it might be difficult to take control of this market away from the bull camp. Apparently the market either sees the potential passage of the Health care bill as a positive development, or perhaps the market is simply relieved that the uncertainty from the process is about to come to an end. News of merger and buyout activity has also contributed to the upward tilt this week, but it is also clear that a certain amount of buying this week was indeed the result of improved macro economic psychology. With the possible passage of the Health care reform effort, Citi and Wells Fargo repaying TARP and some signs of improvement in the jobs market in November, one can say that the US economy comes to the end of the year, in a much better position than it started the year. We suspect that early momentum will manage to carry the markets to a higher close, especially since the trade ends at mid session today.
S&P 500: Up trend channel resistance is seen up at 1121.70 today and that resistance rises to 1122.25 on Monday. At least in the early action today, traders should expect the bull camp to attempt to push prices even higher. However, we also get the sense that the market is becoming overbought and that the bull camp might need dual confirmation of a good economy, from the claims and durable goods reports just to leave the bulls in control for the entire shortened trading session. We would remain bullish until the March S&P falls back below the 1115.60.
DOW: All things considered, the action in the Mini Dow this week has been disappointing, as other sectors of the market have forged a series of fresh new highs for the year this week and the Mini Dow this morning sits as much as 80 points below the 2009 highs. Unfortunately for the bull camp, up trend channel support in the March Mini Dow doesn’t come in until the 10,278 level, with that support level rising to 10,298 on Monday. Initial resistance today in the March Mini Dow is seen at 10,450, but positive momentum in the rest of the market might serve to pull up the Dow slightly early this morning.
NASDAQ: News of ongoing merger and buyout activity, as well as favorable holiday sales expectations has given the tech sector an ongoing lift overnight. Up trend channel resistance in the March Nasdaq is seen at 1857.75 and that could serve as a profit taking point by some, especially if the next critical Health care vote is completed before the close today, as that could create a political anti climax of sorts.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Expect the bulls to control out of the gate but traders might bank profits if the early scheduled numbers fail to distinctly extend the rally.
Tags: DOW, Financials, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Stocks
About Dave Hightower