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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The corn market started the week with a strong advance. This follows a series of winter storms across much of the Midwest that started around the middle of last week. Traders indicate that this, plus the Christmas holiday, has slowed farmer selling and stalled last-minute progress in this year’s harvest. A lower dollar index overnight and last week’s very strong export sales in corn were also considered supportive. Last week’s net export sales in corn were well above trade expectations at 1,591,800 tonnes, all for 2009/10. As of December 17, cumulative corn sales stand at 46.6% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010 versus a 5 year average of 50.5%. Sales need to average 755,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. There is somewhat of a disconnect between the recent heavier pace of export sales in corn and the light pace of recent corn shipments. This is due to the fact that shipments of soybeans are taking up most of the export shipping capacity into the start of 2010 as buyers such as China continue to rush to fill the gap left in the world’s soybean supply pipeline by last year’s drought in Argentina. Soybean shipments are expected to tail off as we approach the start of the South American harvest in March and the shift to corn shipments is expected to be well underway by that point. Weather forecasts in the US call for light scattered precipitation in the northern Midwest today and eastern Midwest tomorrow. This may be followed by light and scattered precipitation in the western Corn Belt on Wednesday.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The corn market is becoming the focus of traders’ attention and this should continue to pull in spec and commercial buying, including funds. The corn market may not be as susceptible to swings in the dollar in coming days as it appears to be ready to start making a move toward the 470 to 480 level. First support is near 405 to 407 1/2 in the March corn contract and then at 393. Resistance is at 421 to 425 and then at 440.
Corn Market Commentary – 2009.12.28
by Terry Roggensack on December 28, 2009
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The corn market started the week with a strong advance. This follows a series of winter storms across much of the Midwest that started around the middle of last week. Traders indicate that this, plus the Christmas holiday, has slowed farmer selling and stalled last-minute progress in this year’s harvest. A lower dollar index overnight and last week’s very strong export sales in corn were also considered supportive. Last week’s net export sales in corn were well above trade expectations at 1,591,800 tonnes, all for 2009/10. As of December 17, cumulative corn sales stand at 46.6% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010 versus a 5 year average of 50.5%. Sales need to average 755,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. There is somewhat of a disconnect between the recent heavier pace of export sales in corn and the light pace of recent corn shipments. This is due to the fact that shipments of soybeans are taking up most of the export shipping capacity into the start of 2010 as buyers such as China continue to rush to fill the gap left in the world’s soybean supply pipeline by last year’s drought in Argentina. Soybean shipments are expected to tail off as we approach the start of the South American harvest in March and the shift to corn shipments is expected to be well underway by that point. Weather forecasts in the US call for light scattered precipitation in the northern Midwest today and eastern Midwest tomorrow. This may be followed by light and scattered precipitation in the western Corn Belt on Wednesday.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The corn market is becoming the focus of traders’ attention and this should continue to pull in spec and commercial buying, including funds. The corn market may not be as susceptible to swings in the dollar in coming days as it appears to be ready to start making a move toward the 470 to 480 level. First support is near 405 to 407 1/2 in the March corn contract and then at 393. Resistance is at 421 to 425 and then at 440.
Tags: Corn, Grains
About Terry Roggensack