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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Corn moved lower overnight in conjunction with a higher dollar and fears of tightening in China. This contrasts with yesterday’s gain in corn futures, which included a strong close. Despite the new high for the move on Monday and the sharp break early in the day on December 30th, closes in the March corn contract have held within a narrow band of 413 3/4 to 421 3/4 for nearly two weeks. Weather has again become a factor in the corn market with snow hitting the central and northern Plains and the western and NW Corn Belt into yesterday. The system is starting to dump snow in the central Midwest today, although snowfall amounts are expected to be lower as the storm moves east. Cold temperatures have already caused some icing on the Illinois River and the areas of heavy snow will curtail cash movement in parts of the feed belt that stretches from the western Corn Belt into the Plains. Traders report that the weather and mixed price action are helping to keep farmers on the sidelines as they focus on their financial plans and planting intentions for 2010. Traders said that yesterday’s strength came in part from outside markets as well as a lack of substantial farmers selling. Basis levels were steady to firm at the Gulf in corn yesterday and higher in the western Midwest where transportation is becoming more difficult. The USDA will issue its latest Export Sales report this morning. Traders are expecting today’s figure to fall below last week’s total of 772,500 tonnes, and is also expected to be below the 754,600 tonnes in sales that are needed each week to reach the USDA’s export projection. Brazil has boosted its estimate of their 2009/10 corn crop to 50.49 million tonnes from the previous month’s estimate of 50.15 million. South Korea bought 55,000 tonnes of GMO corn for delivery in April and an Israeli private firm bought 32,000 tonnes of corn.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The March corn contract posted its highest close since June 19th yesterday. China’s move to tighten credit is likely to have a much bigger impact on soybeans than corn. First support is at 413 3/4 in the March contract with next support at 405 to 407. First resistance is near 425 and with next resistance at 440.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: With a “sell commodities day” corn buyers can be a bit more patient. Buying support for May corn is at 417 3/4 with 451 as next upside objective.
Corn Market Commentary – 2010.01.07
by Terry Roggensack on January 7, 2010
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Corn moved lower overnight in conjunction with a higher dollar and fears of tightening in China. This contrasts with yesterday’s gain in corn futures, which included a strong close. Despite the new high for the move on Monday and the sharp break early in the day on December 30th, closes in the March corn contract have held within a narrow band of 413 3/4 to 421 3/4 for nearly two weeks. Weather has again become a factor in the corn market with snow hitting the central and northern Plains and the western and NW Corn Belt into yesterday. The system is starting to dump snow in the central Midwest today, although snowfall amounts are expected to be lower as the storm moves east. Cold temperatures have already caused some icing on the Illinois River and the areas of heavy snow will curtail cash movement in parts of the feed belt that stretches from the western Corn Belt into the Plains. Traders report that the weather and mixed price action are helping to keep farmers on the sidelines as they focus on their financial plans and planting intentions for 2010. Traders said that yesterday’s strength came in part from outside markets as well as a lack of substantial farmers selling. Basis levels were steady to firm at the Gulf in corn yesterday and higher in the western Midwest where transportation is becoming more difficult. The USDA will issue its latest Export Sales report this morning. Traders are expecting today’s figure to fall below last week’s total of 772,500 tonnes, and is also expected to be below the 754,600 tonnes in sales that are needed each week to reach the USDA’s export projection. Brazil has boosted its estimate of their 2009/10 corn crop to 50.49 million tonnes from the previous month’s estimate of 50.15 million. South Korea bought 55,000 tonnes of GMO corn for delivery in April and an Israeli private firm bought 32,000 tonnes of corn.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The March corn contract posted its highest close since June 19th yesterday. China’s move to tighten credit is likely to have a much bigger impact on soybeans than corn. First support is at 413 3/4 in the March contract with next support at 405 to 407. First resistance is near 425 and with next resistance at 440.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: With a “sell commodities day” corn buyers can be a bit more patient. Buying support for May corn is at 417 3/4 with 451 as next upside objective.
Tags: Corn, Grains
About Terry Roggensack