Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Traders indicate that the wheat market keeps running out of fresh sellers after making new lows for the year. Funds have been leaning to the sell side in recent days, but quantities sold by them have not been large, and signs of increased export demand have tended to balance out the fund selling, according to one analyst. Egypt bought 180,000 tonnes of wheat yesterday, all of it from Russia. US wheat remains overpriced in that important region, especially in the eastern Mediterranean, so it was no surprise that the sale did not include wheat from the US. Japan bought 127,000 tonnes of wheat on its regularly scheduled weekly tender. Also, Tunisia bought 42,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 50,000 tonnes of durum according to traders. The USDA will issue its latest Export Sales report this morning. Traders are looking for a total of up to 650,000 tonnes in net new sales. The total will almost certainly be down from last week’s big sales total of over 825,000 tonnes, but it is expected to be well above the average of 273,400 tonnes in new sales needed each week to reach the USDA’s export projection for the marketing year. Traders indicate that weather in the US may be providing some minor support to the wheat market with much colder temperatures across a broad swath of both the hard and soft red winter wheat belts. This included some scattered areas of freezing rain, but most areas have adequate snow cover so damage should be minimal.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The push to a new 3 1/2 month lows in wheat yesterday suggests that the long term downtrend is still intact. However, increased open interest, including the continued buying interest by index funds seen on the last Commitments of Traders report suggests that investors may still have a long term appetite for commodities. This may mean erratic swings in the wheat market that include a series of new lows for the move followed by significant bounces. Next support in March wheat is near 470 to 475. Resistance starts as low as 502, then at 507 1/2 and 514 1/4.
Wheat Market Commentary – 2010.01.28
by Terry Roggensack on January 28, 2010
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Traders indicate that the wheat market keeps running out of fresh sellers after making new lows for the year. Funds have been leaning to the sell side in recent days, but quantities sold by them have not been large, and signs of increased export demand have tended to balance out the fund selling, according to one analyst. Egypt bought 180,000 tonnes of wheat yesterday, all of it from Russia. US wheat remains overpriced in that important region, especially in the eastern Mediterranean, so it was no surprise that the sale did not include wheat from the US. Japan bought 127,000 tonnes of wheat on its regularly scheduled weekly tender. Also, Tunisia bought 42,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 50,000 tonnes of durum according to traders. The USDA will issue its latest Export Sales report this morning. Traders are looking for a total of up to 650,000 tonnes in net new sales. The total will almost certainly be down from last week’s big sales total of over 825,000 tonnes, but it is expected to be well above the average of 273,400 tonnes in new sales needed each week to reach the USDA’s export projection for the marketing year. Traders indicate that weather in the US may be providing some minor support to the wheat market with much colder temperatures across a broad swath of both the hard and soft red winter wheat belts. This included some scattered areas of freezing rain, but most areas have adequate snow cover so damage should be minimal.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The push to a new 3 1/2 month lows in wheat yesterday suggests that the long term downtrend is still intact. However, increased open interest, including the continued buying interest by index funds seen on the last Commitments of Traders report suggests that investors may still have a long term appetite for commodities. This may mean erratic swings in the wheat market that include a series of new lows for the move followed by significant bounces. Next support in March wheat is near 470 to 475. Resistance starts as low as 502, then at 507 1/2 and 514 1/4.
Tags: Grains, Wheat
About Terry Roggensack