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With US economic numbers disappointing the trade, the Greece situation remaining unsettled and the Obama Administration setting the stage for yet another assault on Health care reform, there are clearly more bearish influences than bullish influences in the marketplace. With Washington aiming its blame gun at health insurers and Congress moving to repeal a Federal Antitrust exemption for health insurers, it would appear that another industry is about to be ransacked. Typically seeing the US Federal Reserve Chairman promise lingering low rates is seen as a positive and at times the stock market yesterday even seemed to rally off the idea that soft US numbers would insure lingering low rates. In other words, the market tried to shift back into a position where soft numbers serves to temper the fear of higher rate. However, the market doesn’t even seem to be able to consistently embrace the soft number/higher equities theme, perhaps because some don’t believe the Fed, while others are just afraid of further anti growth measures coming from Washington. Mix in what could be a deteriorating Greece situation and there appears to be more risk than reward in the current market.
S&P 500: Critical up trend channel support is seen at 1094.80 today, but we have to think that support levels could be violated, given the docket of political and economic events scheduled for today. In fact, to alter the down trend pattern in the S&P would probably require a rally back above 1105.20. If the durable goods report disappoints early today, we suspect that bearish sentiment will dominate.
DOW: With a pattern of lower highs in the March Mini Dow this week, it would seem like the bear camp has the technical edge. In fact, the market was unable to benefit from potentially supportive corporate headline news and clearly the scheduled macro economic news this week has been discouraging. Today the markets probably won’t have as much support off Fed testimony (because it is the second day of testimony) and that could make the mid day auction results a bit of a negative for equity market sentiment. Critical support in the March Mini Dow looks weak at 10,299, with the market potentially unable to avoid a slide down to and below 10,250.
NASDAQ: Like the Mini Dow, the Nasdaq has a pattern of lower highs on the charts and it is likely that the March Nasdaq will see a slide below the even number 1800 level today. With a lower early US trade this morning being seen despite a series of favorable corporate earnings news items from the European markets it is clear that the trade is still looking at the glass as half empty. Critical up trend channel support is seen today at 1797.65, but we can’t argue against a return to the February 23rd low of 1785.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Too little reward seen today in the face of rising political and economic uncertainty.
Stock Market Commentary – 2010.02.25
by Dave Hightower on February 25, 2010
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
With US economic numbers disappointing the trade, the Greece situation remaining unsettled and the Obama Administration setting the stage for yet another assault on Health care reform, there are clearly more bearish influences than bullish influences in the marketplace. With Washington aiming its blame gun at health insurers and Congress moving to repeal a Federal Antitrust exemption for health insurers, it would appear that another industry is about to be ransacked. Typically seeing the US Federal Reserve Chairman promise lingering low rates is seen as a positive and at times the stock market yesterday even seemed to rally off the idea that soft US numbers would insure lingering low rates. In other words, the market tried to shift back into a position where soft numbers serves to temper the fear of higher rate. However, the market doesn’t even seem to be able to consistently embrace the soft number/higher equities theme, perhaps because some don’t believe the Fed, while others are just afraid of further anti growth measures coming from Washington. Mix in what could be a deteriorating Greece situation and there appears to be more risk than reward in the current market.
S&P 500: Critical up trend channel support is seen at 1094.80 today, but we have to think that support levels could be violated, given the docket of political and economic events scheduled for today. In fact, to alter the down trend pattern in the S&P would probably require a rally back above 1105.20. If the durable goods report disappoints early today, we suspect that bearish sentiment will dominate.
DOW: With a pattern of lower highs in the March Mini Dow this week, it would seem like the bear camp has the technical edge. In fact, the market was unable to benefit from potentially supportive corporate headline news and clearly the scheduled macro economic news this week has been discouraging. Today the markets probably won’t have as much support off Fed testimony (because it is the second day of testimony) and that could make the mid day auction results a bit of a negative for equity market sentiment. Critical support in the March Mini Dow looks weak at 10,299, with the market potentially unable to avoid a slide down to and below 10,250.
NASDAQ: Like the Mini Dow, the Nasdaq has a pattern of lower highs on the charts and it is likely that the March Nasdaq will see a slide below the even number 1800 level today. With a lower early US trade this morning being seen despite a series of favorable corporate earnings news items from the European markets it is clear that the trade is still looking at the glass as half empty. Critical up trend channel support is seen today at 1797.65, but we can’t argue against a return to the February 23rd low of 1785.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Too little reward seen today in the face of rising political and economic uncertainty.
Tags: DOW, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Stocks
About Dave Hightower