Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
May sugar will need to move back over 17.81 to expect any new buying interest and for a confirmation of a near-term low. It will take a close over 18.64 to see a weekly closing price reversal to confirm the daily reversal on Wednesday. Traders will be monitoring the Commitments-of-Traders reports after the close as recent reports have shown a reluctance by speculators to move out of large net long positions. However, that may mean that these traders have started to sell this past week. May sugar could not find follow-through buying yesterday after Wednesday’s surge up from 10-month lows. After some choppy to lower trade early, the market deteriorated late in the session. A stable Dollar added to the reluctance of physical buyers to step into the market, even with prices losing nearly half of their value over the past two months. An estimate that this season’s production in India will be 17 million tons, about 1-2 million higher than estimates a few months ago helped to spark some selling but this news was also out as the market fell to the lows into the middle of the week. Traders are hopeful that India can produce near 24-25 million tonnes for the 2010/11 season as compared with usage which is thought to be near 23-24 million. This, combined with ideas of heavy incoming supply during the next few months from Brazil who could boost production by 3-4 million tonnes above last year helped to support. Tunisia bought 18,000 tonnes of white sugar for June arrival. Pakistan postponed a new tender to buy 200,000 tonnes of white sugar from March 27th to April 17th. Pakistan bought 200,000 tonnes on Monday. The US Agriculture Undersecretary yesterday indicated that there has been no decision yet on increasing US sugar import quota. April 1st is the first day in which the department can adjust the import quota for the season and many traders believe the US needs to import an additional 1 million tonnes to alleviate tight supply.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: China could emerge as a more significant importer for the coming year if their drought situation does not go away and Russia, US, Mexico and others could be close behind. The daily reversal on Wednesday is a clear sign of a near-term low but the market will need to experience follow-through buying to confirm a low.
Sugar Market Commentary – 2010.03.25
by Terry Roggensack on March 26, 2010
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
May sugar will need to move back over 17.81 to expect any new buying interest and for a confirmation of a near-term low. It will take a close over 18.64 to see a weekly closing price reversal to confirm the daily reversal on Wednesday. Traders will be monitoring the Commitments-of-Traders reports after the close as recent reports have shown a reluctance by speculators to move out of large net long positions. However, that may mean that these traders have started to sell this past week. May sugar could not find follow-through buying yesterday after Wednesday’s surge up from 10-month lows. After some choppy to lower trade early, the market deteriorated late in the session. A stable Dollar added to the reluctance of physical buyers to step into the market, even with prices losing nearly half of their value over the past two months. An estimate that this season’s production in India will be 17 million tons, about 1-2 million higher than estimates a few months ago helped to spark some selling but this news was also out as the market fell to the lows into the middle of the week. Traders are hopeful that India can produce near 24-25 million tonnes for the 2010/11 season as compared with usage which is thought to be near 23-24 million. This, combined with ideas of heavy incoming supply during the next few months from Brazil who could boost production by 3-4 million tonnes above last year helped to support. Tunisia bought 18,000 tonnes of white sugar for June arrival. Pakistan postponed a new tender to buy 200,000 tonnes of white sugar from March 27th to April 17th. Pakistan bought 200,000 tonnes on Monday. The US Agriculture Undersecretary yesterday indicated that there has been no decision yet on increasing US sugar import quota. April 1st is the first day in which the department can adjust the import quota for the season and many traders believe the US needs to import an additional 1 million tonnes to alleviate tight supply.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: China could emerge as a more significant importer for the coming year if their drought situation does not go away and Russia, US, Mexico and others could be close behind. The daily reversal on Wednesday is a clear sign of a near-term low but the market will need to experience follow-through buying to confirm a low.
Tags: Softs, Sugar
About Terry Roggensack