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The S&P has already managed a fresh new high for the year this morning and has seemingly engineered that pulse up move on the back of news of a $40 billion Greek aid package. While the market will see the Alcoa earnings later today, we don’t get the sense that the market is being driven higher because of favorable corporate earnings expectations. Nonetheless, we think that the market needs something positive from Alcoa and then from Intel on Tuesday to extend the pattern of strength, as these reports cover cyclical as well as tech sector conditions and after the rather stellar run up over the last 2 1/2 months, we get the sense that the market needs bullish news to justify and feed the up trend pattern. At least in the early action today, it would appear that sentiment is set to start the week on a positive track and given the gains in energy, metals and other physical commodity markets, it is possible that Natural resource stocks are going to help the overall market move to even higher levels early this week.
S&P 500: The June S&P managed a big range up move this morning but the trade seems to have questioned that move by giving up a large portion of that move into the NYSE opening. In looking at the charts, the June S&P has mounted some fairly aggressive gains over prior two trading sessions and seeing the favorable EU debt developments should have given the market a bigger sustained lift. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of April 6th for S&P 500 Stock Index showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 8,531 contracts, a decrease of 855 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 7,164 contracts, an increase of -6,689 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 15,694 contracts, an increase of 5,833 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of only 7,163 contracts. While the COT positioning is probably understated due to the rally that was forged in the wake of the COT mark off early last week, the S&P would seem to have more classic technical buying capacity than either the Nasdaq or the Mini Dow. We would be bullish as long as the June S&P manages to hold above 1192.60 today.
DOW: Like the S&P, the Mini Dow has managed a fresh new high for the move this morning, but prices have seemingly given back a large portion of that pulse up ahead of the NYSE opening. The bias looks to be pointing upward today off an improvement in the EU debt situation and also because of hopes for an earnings lift later this week. Critical support in the June Mini Dow contract is seen at the prior close of 10,953, with up trend channel support today not seen until all the way down at 10,838. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of April 6th for Dow Jones Index $5 showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 25,762 contracts, an increase of 5,563 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 28,660 contracts, an increase of -8,577 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 2,897 contracts, an increase of 3,014 contracts which represents a change from a net short to net long position. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 28,659 contracts, which means the market is only marginally overbought.
NASDAQ: The June Nasdaq actually managed a gap up trade overnight but seemed to be unable to hold much of that gap up move. Given the significant 2 1/2 month rally in the Nasdaq, we would suggest that the Nasdaq needs something definitively positive from Intel earnings on Tuesday to give the market the capacity to extend on the upside. The middle of the up trend channel in the June Nasdaq is seen at 1981.50 today and we would remain bullish as long as the June Nasdaq manages to hold above 1992. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of April 6th for Nasdaq Mini showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 56,582 contracts, an increase of 838 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 62,859 contracts, a decrease of 3,258 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 6,276 contracts, a decrease of -4,097 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 62,858 contracts. As we suggested last week, the Nasdaq continues to hold the longest spec position of the Mini Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The bulls have the early edge but we get the impression that the market needs constant headline assistance or the market might see profit taking.
Stock Market Commentary – 2010.04.12
by Dave Hightower on April 12, 2010
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
The S&P has already managed a fresh new high for the year this morning and has seemingly engineered that pulse up move on the back of news of a $40 billion Greek aid package. While the market will see the Alcoa earnings later today, we don’t get the sense that the market is being driven higher because of favorable corporate earnings expectations. Nonetheless, we think that the market needs something positive from Alcoa and then from Intel on Tuesday to extend the pattern of strength, as these reports cover cyclical as well as tech sector conditions and after the rather stellar run up over the last 2 1/2 months, we get the sense that the market needs bullish news to justify and feed the up trend pattern. At least in the early action today, it would appear that sentiment is set to start the week on a positive track and given the gains in energy, metals and other physical commodity markets, it is possible that Natural resource stocks are going to help the overall market move to even higher levels early this week.
S&P 500: The June S&P managed a big range up move this morning but the trade seems to have questioned that move by giving up a large portion of that move into the NYSE opening. In looking at the charts, the June S&P has mounted some fairly aggressive gains over prior two trading sessions and seeing the favorable EU debt developments should have given the market a bigger sustained lift. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of April 6th for S&P 500 Stock Index showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 8,531 contracts, a decrease of 855 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 7,164 contracts, an increase of -6,689 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 15,694 contracts, an increase of 5,833 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of only 7,163 contracts. While the COT positioning is probably understated due to the rally that was forged in the wake of the COT mark off early last week, the S&P would seem to have more classic technical buying capacity than either the Nasdaq or the Mini Dow. We would be bullish as long as the June S&P manages to hold above 1192.60 today.
DOW: Like the S&P, the Mini Dow has managed a fresh new high for the move this morning, but prices have seemingly given back a large portion of that pulse up ahead of the NYSE opening. The bias looks to be pointing upward today off an improvement in the EU debt situation and also because of hopes for an earnings lift later this week. Critical support in the June Mini Dow contract is seen at the prior close of 10,953, with up trend channel support today not seen until all the way down at 10,838. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of April 6th for Dow Jones Index $5 showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 25,762 contracts, an increase of 5,563 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 28,660 contracts, an increase of -8,577 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 2,897 contracts, an increase of 3,014 contracts which represents a change from a net short to net long position. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 28,659 contracts, which means the market is only marginally overbought.
NASDAQ: The June Nasdaq actually managed a gap up trade overnight but seemed to be unable to hold much of that gap up move. Given the significant 2 1/2 month rally in the Nasdaq, we would suggest that the Nasdaq needs something definitively positive from Intel earnings on Tuesday to give the market the capacity to extend on the upside. The middle of the up trend channel in the June Nasdaq is seen at 1981.50 today and we would remain bullish as long as the June Nasdaq manages to hold above 1992. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of April 6th for Nasdaq Mini showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 56,582 contracts, an increase of 838 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 62,859 contracts, a decrease of 3,258 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 6,276 contracts, a decrease of -4,097 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 62,858 contracts. As we suggested last week, the Nasdaq continues to hold the longest spec position of the Mini Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The bulls have the early edge but we get the impression that the market needs constant headline assistance or the market might see profit taking.
Tags: DOW, Equities, Financials, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Stocks
About Dave Hightower