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DOLLAR: The Dollar has generally held its ground to start the new week, as the G20 meeting produced little in the way of game-changing news. With no major impact for the equity markets as well, there has been a lack of strong momentum either way this morning. While there is a chance that the US Personal Income number may shake things up a bit, there appears to be enough Dollar strength to avoid making new lows for the move today. Look for the Dollar to find support around the 85.50 level, but it may be difficult to start a rebound unless fresh news fires up the market. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 22nd for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 20,710 contracts, a decrease of 1,287 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 23,745 contracts, a decrease of 935 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 3,035 contracts, an increase of 352 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 23,745 contracts. This represents a decrease of 935 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
EURO: The Sept Euro found little benefit from the G20 meeting, and has moved lower after being unable to hold a move above the 1.24 level. With the market focus still not fully returning to Euro Zone specific issues, the Sept Euro may find difficulty in sustaining momentum in either direction as the jury is still out on the future. In fact, unless there is a large improvement in overall sentiment, the Sept Euro will continue to find solid resistance around the 1.24 area and support just above the 122.50 area. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 22nd for Euro showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 64,509 contracts, an increase of 9,410 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 76,225 contracts, an increase of 6,252 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 11,716 contracts, a decrease of 3,158 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 76,225 contracts. This represents an increase of 6,252 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.
YEN: A weak Japanese Retail Sales numbers overnight has weighed on the Sept Yen, but there has been enough carryover strength from last week’s rally to keep prices in a relatively tight range so far. Although safe-haven support will remain a key factor, look for the Sept Yen to test support near the 111.50 area as there has been little positive news from Japan to sustain prices at these levels particularly because the flight to quality angle doesn’t appear to be playing loudly today.
SWISS: Comments from a Swiss National Bank official that deflationary risks were easing have helped to drive the Sept Swiss to new highs for the move. With the continued support coming from a string of new all-time highs against the Euro, the Sept Swiss looks to have the strongest momentum of any of the major currencies today. Look for the Sept Swiss to make a run at resistance above the 95.60 level during today’s trading.
POUND: While the Sept Pound has lost some of its upside momentum, an ability to consolidate above the 1.50 level indicates the underlying strength behind the recent rally. There may be another move towards support at 1.50 today, but look for the longer-term rally bias to remain intact.
CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Sept Canadian has been able to grind its way higher, but remains well below last week’s highs. Quieter markets may provide an opportunity for further gains today, but the upside for the Sept Canadian may be capped off around the 97.00 level as US scheduled data might serve to dampen expectations for North America later this morning.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Sept Swiss has the benefit of fresh news to propel this rally, and looks to have further upside potential during today’s trading.
Currency Market Commentary – 2010.06.28
by Dave Hightower on June 28, 2010
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
DOLLAR: The Dollar has generally held its ground to start the new week, as the G20 meeting produced little in the way of game-changing news. With no major impact for the equity markets as well, there has been a lack of strong momentum either way this morning. While there is a chance that the US Personal Income number may shake things up a bit, there appears to be enough Dollar strength to avoid making new lows for the move today. Look for the Dollar to find support around the 85.50 level, but it may be difficult to start a rebound unless fresh news fires up the market. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 22nd for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 20,710 contracts, a decrease of 1,287 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 23,745 contracts, a decrease of 935 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 3,035 contracts, an increase of 352 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 23,745 contracts. This represents a decrease of 935 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
EURO: The Sept Euro found little benefit from the G20 meeting, and has moved lower after being unable to hold a move above the 1.24 level. With the market focus still not fully returning to Euro Zone specific issues, the Sept Euro may find difficulty in sustaining momentum in either direction as the jury is still out on the future. In fact, unless there is a large improvement in overall sentiment, the Sept Euro will continue to find solid resistance around the 1.24 area and support just above the 122.50 area. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 22nd for Euro showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 64,509 contracts, an increase of 9,410 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 76,225 contracts, an increase of 6,252 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 11,716 contracts, a decrease of 3,158 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 76,225 contracts. This represents an increase of 6,252 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.
YEN: A weak Japanese Retail Sales numbers overnight has weighed on the Sept Yen, but there has been enough carryover strength from last week’s rally to keep prices in a relatively tight range so far. Although safe-haven support will remain a key factor, look for the Sept Yen to test support near the 111.50 area as there has been little positive news from Japan to sustain prices at these levels particularly because the flight to quality angle doesn’t appear to be playing loudly today.
SWISS: Comments from a Swiss National Bank official that deflationary risks were easing have helped to drive the Sept Swiss to new highs for the move. With the continued support coming from a string of new all-time highs against the Euro, the Sept Swiss looks to have the strongest momentum of any of the major currencies today. Look for the Sept Swiss to make a run at resistance above the 95.60 level during today’s trading.
POUND: While the Sept Pound has lost some of its upside momentum, an ability to consolidate above the 1.50 level indicates the underlying strength behind the recent rally. There may be another move towards support at 1.50 today, but look for the longer-term rally bias to remain intact.
CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Sept Canadian has been able to grind its way higher, but remains well below last week’s highs. Quieter markets may provide an opportunity for further gains today, but the upside for the Sept Canadian may be capped off around the 97.00 level as US scheduled data might serve to dampen expectations for North America later this morning.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Sept Swiss has the benefit of fresh news to propel this rally, and looks to have further upside potential during today’s trading.
Tags: Currencies, Dollar, Euro, Pound, Swiss
About Dave Hightower