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While the market is showing initial positive signals this morning, we fear for another dose of negative economic reality from the US scheduled data flows. While the G20 meeting apparently ended with the leaders making nice with each other, we didn’t see anything significantly beneficial from that meeting. We do think that stocks were lifted Friday by favorable news from Oracle, but we don’t see much in the way of important cyclical earnings news due out until Constellation Brands on Thursday. We still don’t expect to see anxiety in the marketplace off the scheduled data, but we do think that the ultra slow readings will send a message to investors, that risk is out of whack relative to reward. In the end, seeing US Treasuries near their highs this morning and seeing gold prices relatively close to their recent highs suggests that the flight to quality mentality is still a front and center item.
S&P 500: The September S&P comes into the action this morning right back to the Friday highs and that would seem to give the bull camp a technical edge to start the session. The next significant resistance level on the charts is seen up at 1080.20 today, but the real test of the bull’s resolve should come in the wake of a very active flow of US scheduled data this morning. Apparently the market has managed to avoid fresh concerning news from the Euro zone again this morning and apparently the market is also discounting the threat of a double dip recession. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 22nd for S&P 500 Stock Index showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 6,883 contracts, a decrease of 4,056 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 20,718 contracts, an increase of 17,699 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 13,836 contracts, an increase of 21,756 contracts which represents a change from a net long to net short position. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 20,719 contracts and that could give the bull camp an initial technical edge.
DOW: While the September Mini Dow comes into the new week sitting close to the prior session’s high, we just don’t see the rational for calling an end to the downward bias that has been in place since June 21st. Certainly strength in European Bank stocks has provided the market with a positive start today, but we think the US scheduled data will generally remove the optimism and restart the downside track again. However, it will take a decline back below the 10,104 level, to give the bear camp the technical edge again. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 22nd for Dow Jones Index $5 showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 3,468 contracts, an increase of 3,297 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 874 contracts, an increase of 6,820 contracts which represents a change from a net long to net short position. The Non-reportable traders were net short 2,594 contracts, a decrease of 3,523 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 874 contracts. These traders have gone from a net short to a net long position.
NASDAQ: While the Nasdaq starts the new week out on a positive note, we doubt that tilt will remain in control throughout the trading session. Certainly the Nasdaq is emboldened by the Oracle news from last Friday, as that suggests the tech sector is capable of operating in the face of a slowing economy. However, until the September Nasdaq manages a climb back above last Friday’s high of 1856.00, we will remain bearish toward prices. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 22nd for Nasdaq Mini showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 11,737 contracts, an increase of 31,086 contracts which represents a change from a net short to net long position. The Commercial traders were net short 15,303 contracts, a decrease of 26,422 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 3,566 contracts, a decrease of 57,508 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 15,303 contracts. This represents a decrease of 26,422 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The bulls have initial control but the early numbers look to be the main threat to the trade today.
Stock Market Commentary – 2010.06.28
by Dave Hightower on June 28, 2010
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
While the market is showing initial positive signals this morning, we fear for another dose of negative economic reality from the US scheduled data flows. While the G20 meeting apparently ended with the leaders making nice with each other, we didn’t see anything significantly beneficial from that meeting. We do think that stocks were lifted Friday by favorable news from Oracle, but we don’t see much in the way of important cyclical earnings news due out until Constellation Brands on Thursday. We still don’t expect to see anxiety in the marketplace off the scheduled data, but we do think that the ultra slow readings will send a message to investors, that risk is out of whack relative to reward. In the end, seeing US Treasuries near their highs this morning and seeing gold prices relatively close to their recent highs suggests that the flight to quality mentality is still a front and center item.
S&P 500: The September S&P comes into the action this morning right back to the Friday highs and that would seem to give the bull camp a technical edge to start the session. The next significant resistance level on the charts is seen up at 1080.20 today, but the real test of the bull’s resolve should come in the wake of a very active flow of US scheduled data this morning. Apparently the market has managed to avoid fresh concerning news from the Euro zone again this morning and apparently the market is also discounting the threat of a double dip recession. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 22nd for S&P 500 Stock Index showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 6,883 contracts, a decrease of 4,056 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 20,718 contracts, an increase of 17,699 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 13,836 contracts, an increase of 21,756 contracts which represents a change from a net long to net short position. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 20,719 contracts and that could give the bull camp an initial technical edge.
DOW: While the September Mini Dow comes into the new week sitting close to the prior session’s high, we just don’t see the rational for calling an end to the downward bias that has been in place since June 21st. Certainly strength in European Bank stocks has provided the market with a positive start today, but we think the US scheduled data will generally remove the optimism and restart the downside track again. However, it will take a decline back below the 10,104 level, to give the bear camp the technical edge again. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 22nd for Dow Jones Index $5 showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 3,468 contracts, an increase of 3,297 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 874 contracts, an increase of 6,820 contracts which represents a change from a net long to net short position. The Non-reportable traders were net short 2,594 contracts, a decrease of 3,523 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 874 contracts. These traders have gone from a net short to a net long position.
NASDAQ: While the Nasdaq starts the new week out on a positive note, we doubt that tilt will remain in control throughout the trading session. Certainly the Nasdaq is emboldened by the Oracle news from last Friday, as that suggests the tech sector is capable of operating in the face of a slowing economy. However, until the September Nasdaq manages a climb back above last Friday’s high of 1856.00, we will remain bearish toward prices. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 22nd for Nasdaq Mini showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 11,737 contracts, an increase of 31,086 contracts which represents a change from a net short to net long position. The Commercial traders were net short 15,303 contracts, a decrease of 26,422 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 3,566 contracts, a decrease of 57,508 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 15,303 contracts. This represents a decrease of 26,422 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The bulls have initial control but the early numbers look to be the main threat to the trade today.
Tags: DOW, Financials, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Stocks
About Dave Hightower