Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
European debt issues resurfaced as a key negative force for stock markets and commodity markets around the world as there is a fear that the weakening economies in Europe will spread to China and other parts of the world to slow growth prospects. Risk avoidance was also a key force. Near perfect weather for the Brazil harvest in the forecast has added to the bearish tone with above normal temperatures and dry weather seen in the next week. September coffee continued to move further away from last week’s highs, as general pressure throughout the commodity markets turned yesterday’s slide into a rout. The upcoming harvest of this season’s crop from Brazil will keep the market under some pressure for an extended period, particularly as there has been no damaging frost as yet to diminish expectations that this crop will be huge. There are indications that the crop harvest is nearly 1/3rd complete. In addition, a major brokerage house has lifted their worldwide forecast for next season’s crop by over 11%, up to 140 million bags. Officials in Costa Rica increased their forecast for next season’s coffee production by close to 12%, up to 1.66 million bags. ICE certified coffee stocks for the day were down 1,525 bags to 2.228 million with zero bags pending review. Stocks at the end of June 2009 were 3.6271 million bags. Brazil exports through June 28th reached 1.262 million bags which is down from 1.765 million in May for the same time frame.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: While the chart pattern looks weak, it appears to be a high risk sell at present with deliverable stocks still declining and Colombia coffee prices still near 70 cents over the board.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Resistance comes in near 167.45 for September coffee with support at 159.45 and 154.15.
Coffee Market Commentary – 2010.06.30
by Terry Roggensack on June 30, 2010
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
European debt issues resurfaced as a key negative force for stock markets and commodity markets around the world as there is a fear that the weakening economies in Europe will spread to China and other parts of the world to slow growth prospects. Risk avoidance was also a key force. Near perfect weather for the Brazil harvest in the forecast has added to the bearish tone with above normal temperatures and dry weather seen in the next week. September coffee continued to move further away from last week’s highs, as general pressure throughout the commodity markets turned yesterday’s slide into a rout. The upcoming harvest of this season’s crop from Brazil will keep the market under some pressure for an extended period, particularly as there has been no damaging frost as yet to diminish expectations that this crop will be huge. There are indications that the crop harvest is nearly 1/3rd complete. In addition, a major brokerage house has lifted their worldwide forecast for next season’s crop by over 11%, up to 140 million bags. Officials in Costa Rica increased their forecast for next season’s coffee production by close to 12%, up to 1.66 million bags. ICE certified coffee stocks for the day were down 1,525 bags to 2.228 million with zero bags pending review. Stocks at the end of June 2009 were 3.6271 million bags. Brazil exports through June 28th reached 1.262 million bags which is down from 1.765 million in May for the same time frame.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: While the chart pattern looks weak, it appears to be a high risk sell at present with deliverable stocks still declining and Colombia coffee prices still near 70 cents over the board.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Resistance comes in near 167.45 for September coffee with support at 159.45 and 154.15.
Tags: Coffee, Softs
About Terry Roggensack