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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: After falling short of last week’s highs yesterday, November soybeans moved lower overnight. Traders said that a modest recovery in the dollar yesterday and follow through strength in the dollar overnight contributed to the stall in the rally in soybeans. Other contributing factors were said to be evening up ahead of Thursday’s big Crop Production report from the USDA along with a lower wheat market and an unchanged quality rating for the US soybean crop this week. The USDA’s Crop Progress report showed the good-to-excellent rating for soybeans at 66% as of Sunday, unchanged from last week and also unchanged from last year. The 10 year average good-to-excellent rating for this time of year is 59%. China’s soybean imports slowed in July to 4.95 million tonnes, down from the record import total in June of 6.2 million tonnes. However, despite the drop the July total is still the second largest monthly import total on record. Weather remains very hot in most soybean growing areas of the US, and this is expected to continue for the remainder of the week. Mid to upper 90s are expected in the central and southern tiers of the Midwest with low 90s expected in Most of Iowa, northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s in the Delta with 100 degree readings in northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas. The North China Plain needs rain and cooler temperatures would be welcome. Rain would also be welcome in central and western portions of the NE soybeans belt in China. August soybeans finished substantially lower yesterday, despite the fact that deliveries remain at zero for soybeans. The USDA announced a sale of 284,000 tonnes of soybeans to China yesterday for delivery during the 2010/11 crop marketing year. This week’s export inspections for soybeans were 7.131 million bushels, down from 10.659 million last week.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: With weakness in other grains and outside markets today and the potential for negative news for Thursday’s reports, November soybeans could retreat to support back at 1015 or even 1005 over the near-term with 1029 1/2 as stiff resistance today. December meal support is back at 286.20. Soybean oil made new highs for the move yesterday and then retreated along with the rest of the soybean complex. Oil looks to remain the leader over the short term as soybeans and meal see liquidation pressure ahead of Thursday’s reports from the USDA. A lack of damage from the ongoing heat wave last week may divert attention back to the big South American supplies and next year’s projected jump in US ending stocks. However, if the USDA lowers China’s 2010/11 soybean production estimate on Thursday, or if this week’s heat is believed to be damaging the US soybean crop, this could be enough to generate renewed buying.
Soybean Market Commentary – 2010.08.10
by Terry Roggensack on August 10, 2010
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: After falling short of last week’s highs yesterday, November soybeans moved lower overnight. Traders said that a modest recovery in the dollar yesterday and follow through strength in the dollar overnight contributed to the stall in the rally in soybeans. Other contributing factors were said to be evening up ahead of Thursday’s big Crop Production report from the USDA along with a lower wheat market and an unchanged quality rating for the US soybean crop this week. The USDA’s Crop Progress report showed the good-to-excellent rating for soybeans at 66% as of Sunday, unchanged from last week and also unchanged from last year. The 10 year average good-to-excellent rating for this time of year is 59%. China’s soybean imports slowed in July to 4.95 million tonnes, down from the record import total in June of 6.2 million tonnes. However, despite the drop the July total is still the second largest monthly import total on record. Weather remains very hot in most soybean growing areas of the US, and this is expected to continue for the remainder of the week. Mid to upper 90s are expected in the central and southern tiers of the Midwest with low 90s expected in Most of Iowa, northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s in the Delta with 100 degree readings in northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas. The North China Plain needs rain and cooler temperatures would be welcome. Rain would also be welcome in central and western portions of the NE soybeans belt in China. August soybeans finished substantially lower yesterday, despite the fact that deliveries remain at zero for soybeans. The USDA announced a sale of 284,000 tonnes of soybeans to China yesterday for delivery during the 2010/11 crop marketing year. This week’s export inspections for soybeans were 7.131 million bushels, down from 10.659 million last week.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: With weakness in other grains and outside markets today and the potential for negative news for Thursday’s reports, November soybeans could retreat to support back at 1015 or even 1005 over the near-term with 1029 1/2 as stiff resistance today. December meal support is back at 286.20. Soybean oil made new highs for the move yesterday and then retreated along with the rest of the soybean complex. Oil looks to remain the leader over the short term as soybeans and meal see liquidation pressure ahead of Thursday’s reports from the USDA. A lack of damage from the ongoing heat wave last week may divert attention back to the big South American supplies and next year’s projected jump in US ending stocks. However, if the USDA lowers China’s 2010/11 soybean production estimate on Thursday, or if this week’s heat is believed to be damaging the US soybean crop, this could be enough to generate renewed buying.
Tags: Beanoil, Grains, Soybeans, Soymeal, Soyoil
About Terry Roggensack