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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Wheat posted substantial gains overnight after wheat prices in Germany moved to a 28-month high on worries over the effects of a rainy harvest season. The poor harvest co0nditions are leading to ideas that half of this year’s German wheat crop could be reduced to feed quality. This comes as demand for wheat remains strong in the huge North African and Middle Eastern import market. The EU cleared well over 800,000 tonnes of wheat for export last week and the strong pace of exports along with the potential losses in Germany are causing some worries about the sustainability of large scale EU wheat exports into the Mediterranean basin in coming months. Morocco is in the market for 167,500 tonnes of milling quality wheat. With a short crop, Morocco will cancel duties on imports of soft wheat from September 16th to December 31st which is expected to boost import demand and help secure a good supply on the domestic market. Pakistan’s minister for food and agriculture said today that the country is deferring plans to export its wheat surplus this year. Traders said that this was not a surprise following weeks of devastating floods that may have wiped out 500,000 tonnes of wheat stocks in addition to damaging some cropland. Neighboring India has still not indicated that it will move to export its large wheat surplus although an Indian firm is offering wheat to Bangladesh against its tender for 50,000 tonnes. The US and Canada are moving into their harvest seasons for spring wheat. Given this year’s weather problems in Europe, traders indicate that the market will be concerned over any substantial rains in the US northern Plains or the Canadian Prairie. For now, conditions in Canada are mainly dry to favorable, with crop development running behind normal. In addition, Australia’s western wheat belt is still suffering from a substantial moisture deficit in some areas. This region produces about half of the country’s wheat crop and the bulk of its exportable surplus. The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 24th showed continued buying by trend-following (managed) funds. They were net buyers of 2,083 contracts to shift to a net long position of 1,466. This is the first time these traders have been net long in wheat since early 2008. Tomorrow is First Notice Day for the September wheat futures contract.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Crop weather remains worrisome in a number of key growing areas around the world, not the least of which is still Russia which needs more rain in order to have a successful launch of its winter grain crops in the next few weeks. A recent bias to the short side by traders may result in further short covering in wheat, especially if the dollar moves lowers and North Africa continues to buy. First support in the December contract is at 688 3/4 and then at 677 1/2 to 680 with next support near 663 3/4. Resistance is at 708 to 712 and then at 738 to 740.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: There seems to be enough weather issues (Germany, Argentina and Australia) along with strong demand to secure inventory from importers to provide support over the near-term with first key technical resistance at 750 1/4 and then 772 3/4, a 50% correction of the August 6th to August 18th break.
Wheat Market Commentary – 2010.08.30
by Terry Roggensack on August 30, 2010
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Wheat posted substantial gains overnight after wheat prices in Germany moved to a 28-month high on worries over the effects of a rainy harvest season. The poor harvest co0nditions are leading to ideas that half of this year’s German wheat crop could be reduced to feed quality. This comes as demand for wheat remains strong in the huge North African and Middle Eastern import market. The EU cleared well over 800,000 tonnes of wheat for export last week and the strong pace of exports along with the potential losses in Germany are causing some worries about the sustainability of large scale EU wheat exports into the Mediterranean basin in coming months. Morocco is in the market for 167,500 tonnes of milling quality wheat. With a short crop, Morocco will cancel duties on imports of soft wheat from September 16th to December 31st which is expected to boost import demand and help secure a good supply on the domestic market. Pakistan’s minister for food and agriculture said today that the country is deferring plans to export its wheat surplus this year. Traders said that this was not a surprise following weeks of devastating floods that may have wiped out 500,000 tonnes of wheat stocks in addition to damaging some cropland. Neighboring India has still not indicated that it will move to export its large wheat surplus although an Indian firm is offering wheat to Bangladesh against its tender for 50,000 tonnes. The US and Canada are moving into their harvest seasons for spring wheat. Given this year’s weather problems in Europe, traders indicate that the market will be concerned over any substantial rains in the US northern Plains or the Canadian Prairie. For now, conditions in Canada are mainly dry to favorable, with crop development running behind normal. In addition, Australia’s western wheat belt is still suffering from a substantial moisture deficit in some areas. This region produces about half of the country’s wheat crop and the bulk of its exportable surplus. The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 24th showed continued buying by trend-following (managed) funds. They were net buyers of 2,083 contracts to shift to a net long position of 1,466. This is the first time these traders have been net long in wheat since early 2008. Tomorrow is First Notice Day for the September wheat futures contract.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Crop weather remains worrisome in a number of key growing areas around the world, not the least of which is still Russia which needs more rain in order to have a successful launch of its winter grain crops in the next few weeks. A recent bias to the short side by traders may result in further short covering in wheat, especially if the dollar moves lowers and North Africa continues to buy. First support in the December contract is at 688 3/4 and then at 677 1/2 to 680 with next support near 663 3/4. Resistance is at 708 to 712 and then at 738 to 740.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: There seems to be enough weather issues (Germany, Argentina and Australia) along with strong demand to secure inventory from importers to provide support over the near-term with first key technical resistance at 750 1/4 and then 772 3/4, a 50% correction of the August 6th to August 18th break.
Tags: Grains, Wheat
About Terry Roggensack