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DOLLAR: The Dollar has unable to sustain any sort of recovery today, and has fallen back towards the lows of yesterday’s selloff. The global rebound in equity markets continues to dampen general risk concerns, which in turn has kept the Dollar under pressure this morning. While yesterday’s Consumer Confidence number managed to lift some of the gloom toward upcoming US economic prospects, there will be an increasing focus put on tomorrow’s US Employment report during today’s session. Even if today’s data comes in fairly positive, there may be some reluctance from the market to make any strong Dollar moves before tomorrow’s numbers are heard from. The Dollar is likely to be weak during the balance of today’s session, but should find support near the 82.25 area today, as the market waits for tomorrow’s numbers.
EURO: The September Euro has been able to continue with a recovery, supported by decent Euro zone economic data, as well as some well-received debt auctions from France and Spain today. Even with the positive tone for the September Euro, it may be difficult for prices to travel far to the upside with the shadow of tomorrow’s US Employment data hanging over the market. There may be an additional boost for the September Euro, if news from today’s European Central Bank meeting produces no surprises, but a large extension of this current rebound may have to wait until US Employment data comes out tomorrow. The September Euro may see a test of the 1.2860 level post-ECB meeting, but that may be as far as today’s strength can take the market.
YEN: While the volatility in the September Yen appears to have calmed down, the uncertainty has not as prices continue to hold their ground near the highs for the move. Although comments by the probable challenger to the Japanese Prime Minister may project a more aggressive attitude towards weakening the September Yen’s current strength, the Bank of Japan will likely have the final say when stronger measures will be applied to their problem. The erosion of safe haven support due to the global equity rebound may keep any gains for the September Yen under control, at least until tomorrow’s economic data is out of the way. Look for the September Yen to drift back towards the 119.00 resistance level during the course of today’s session, but prospects for a large downside move will increase later on this week, so a move back to today’s highs may be used as an area to enter into long put option strategies.
SWISS: A strong Swiss GDP number this morning has been able to support the September Swiss this morning, which has been weakened by the loss of safe-haven support from the global equities rally. The swift pullback from yesterday’s rally above the 99.00 level may be an indication that the September Swiss may be topping out, particularly with the threat of intervention from the Swiss National Bank, if they feel the market has become too strong. The September Swiss should continue to remain well supported, but look for a move back towards the 98.25 level before considering the long side
POUND: A weak private survey of UK housing data has added to the pressure on the September Pound, which has moved back towards the lower end of this week’s trading range. The recent contrast with UK and Euro zone economic data has not been to the September Pound’s benefit, even as the longer-term UK economic situation remains fairly positive. Look for the September Pound to move towards support near the 1.5350 level, but it should hold at those levels unless there is a major reversal in global equity market strength today.
CANADIAN DOLLAR: Calmer market conditions continue to support the Sept Canadian, even as recent Canadian economic data has lost its upbeat outlook. Given the recent volatility with the Sept Canadian, a consolidation at these levels may be of some benefit as there will likely be a large reaction to tomorrow’s US Employment numbers in any case. Look for the Sept Canadian to find support near the 95.00 level, but a strong move above this trading range may wait until tomorrow’s numbers are out of the way.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar may remain weak during today’s session, but any big moves are likely to wait for tomorrow’s US Employment numbers. The September Swiss should continue to remain strong, but a pullback towards today’s lows should be considered before entering the long side.
Currency Market Commentary – 2010.09.02
by Dave Hightower on September 2, 2010
Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
DOLLAR: The Dollar has unable to sustain any sort of recovery today, and has fallen back towards the lows of yesterday’s selloff. The global rebound in equity markets continues to dampen general risk concerns, which in turn has kept the Dollar under pressure this morning. While yesterday’s Consumer Confidence number managed to lift some of the gloom toward upcoming US economic prospects, there will be an increasing focus put on tomorrow’s US Employment report during today’s session. Even if today’s data comes in fairly positive, there may be some reluctance from the market to make any strong Dollar moves before tomorrow’s numbers are heard from. The Dollar is likely to be weak during the balance of today’s session, but should find support near the 82.25 area today, as the market waits for tomorrow’s numbers.
EURO: The September Euro has been able to continue with a recovery, supported by decent Euro zone economic data, as well as some well-received debt auctions from France and Spain today. Even with the positive tone for the September Euro, it may be difficult for prices to travel far to the upside with the shadow of tomorrow’s US Employment data hanging over the market. There may be an additional boost for the September Euro, if news from today’s European Central Bank meeting produces no surprises, but a large extension of this current rebound may have to wait until US Employment data comes out tomorrow. The September Euro may see a test of the 1.2860 level post-ECB meeting, but that may be as far as today’s strength can take the market.
YEN: While the volatility in the September Yen appears to have calmed down, the uncertainty has not as prices continue to hold their ground near the highs for the move. Although comments by the probable challenger to the Japanese Prime Minister may project a more aggressive attitude towards weakening the September Yen’s current strength, the Bank of Japan will likely have the final say when stronger measures will be applied to their problem. The erosion of safe haven support due to the global equity rebound may keep any gains for the September Yen under control, at least until tomorrow’s economic data is out of the way. Look for the September Yen to drift back towards the 119.00 resistance level during the course of today’s session, but prospects for a large downside move will increase later on this week, so a move back to today’s highs may be used as an area to enter into long put option strategies.
SWISS: A strong Swiss GDP number this morning has been able to support the September Swiss this morning, which has been weakened by the loss of safe-haven support from the global equities rally. The swift pullback from yesterday’s rally above the 99.00 level may be an indication that the September Swiss may be topping out, particularly with the threat of intervention from the Swiss National Bank, if they feel the market has become too strong. The September Swiss should continue to remain well supported, but look for a move back towards the 98.25 level before considering the long side
POUND: A weak private survey of UK housing data has added to the pressure on the September Pound, which has moved back towards the lower end of this week’s trading range. The recent contrast with UK and Euro zone economic data has not been to the September Pound’s benefit, even as the longer-term UK economic situation remains fairly positive. Look for the September Pound to move towards support near the 1.5350 level, but it should hold at those levels unless there is a major reversal in global equity market strength today.
CANADIAN DOLLAR: Calmer market conditions continue to support the Sept Canadian, even as recent Canadian economic data has lost its upbeat outlook. Given the recent volatility with the Sept Canadian, a consolidation at these levels may be of some benefit as there will likely be a large reaction to tomorrow’s US Employment numbers in any case. Look for the Sept Canadian to find support near the 95.00 level, but a strong move above this trading range may wait until tomorrow’s numbers are out of the way.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar may remain weak during today’s session, but any big moves are likely to wait for tomorrow’s US Employment numbers. The September Swiss should continue to remain strong, but a pullback towards today’s lows should be considered before entering the long side.
Tags: Canadian, Dollar, Euro, Pound, Swiss, Yen
About Dave Hightower