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OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Asian equity markets were generally stronger this morning, off mostly up beat data flows. However, European equities were mixed to slightly weaker overnight off some softer than expected guidance from a couple multinational heavyweights. In the early action today, US equities were showing mixed action, and it would appear that the US market is looking for some guidance from scheduled data or perhaps from a series of Fed speeches later today. From the US scheduled data front, the markets will be presented with a private layoff report early on and that will be followed by weekly claims figures, which are expected to post a minor decline. While the market will also see a US Productivity reading, the trade doesn’t think that today’s Productivity readings are likely to have a noted impact on Fed policy. It is also possible that a series of Fed speeches/testimony could have an impact on precious metals and physical commodity markets during the session today. A portion of the trade thinks the Fed will hint at more assistance for the US economy.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: At least to start today, the gold market appears to lack a definitive opinion, even though Asian stocks were higher and the S&P seemed to have somewhat positive views toward the potential track of the European economy. In fact, S&P suggested that the odds were tilted in favor of a mild European recession/slow recovery and that is certainly a better proposition than the hard landing or worse fears that dominated the European landscape off and on for the last 12 months. Gold might have been partially undermined by predictions of a slight decline in Indian gold imports for the month of January versus year ago levels, especially after the Indian gold price peg was lifted earlier this week. However, gold reportedly saw some improved demand in Asia overnight but that might have been catch up action to the gains forged in the US Wednesday gold trade. Some traders think the $1,750 level has become a pivot point in the April gold contract, but others think gold will need to see more gains in the Euro and or gains in US equities today just to put the bull camp in definitive control of gold prices. It would seem like gold prices have continued to mostly track physical commodity market fundamentals and therefore the claims figures today might serve to set the tone of prices for the Thursday morning US trade. Comex Gold Stocks were 11.493 million ounces down 964 ounces. Gold stocks have declined in 12 of the last 20 days.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The March silver contract continued to consolidate in the overnight action and to the bear camp that hints at a loss of momentum. However, the bull camp might spin the consolidation action into a positive by suggesting the market is simply building a base above $33.00. Like gold, silver continues to track classic physical commodity market fundamentals and that means the bulls need a stronger Euro and something positive from US scheduled data and or from the US Fed. However, in the early action today silver seems to be lagging relative to gold and platinum prices and that might embolden some in the bear camp. In fact, silver seems to be tracking closely with copper and that could suggest the silver trade might be looking for direction from US claims and from the US equity markets. Some silver bulls are hopeful that dialogue from various Fed sources today will serve to provide some fresh lift to silver prices. Comex Silver Stocks were 128.983 million ounces up 312,407 ounces. Silver stocks have increased 14 of the last 20 days.

PLATINUM: The platinum market has also shown some consolidation action of late but prices enter the Thursday US trade within close proximity to this week’s highs. It would also seem like platinum is tracking with gold instead of silver and copper and that might mean platinum could be less dependant on the scheduled data than some might have expected. Platinum might be garnering some support from news that labor conflict has continued at Impala, with that company reportedly firing up to 13,000 workers who participated in what was ruled to be an illegal strike action. A critical pivot point might be seen in April platinum at $1,616 but the early action seems to hint at a possible return to the highest levels since November 15th on the charts.

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CRUDE OIL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: March crude oil broke below the $97.00 handle this morning, falling to its lowest level since December 20th. It seems that yesterday’s larger than expected EIA inventory build and new 11-year low in gasoline demand has offset optimism from recent economic data points. The outside market tone is flat to fractionally lower this morning, with slight losses in equity markets and the Euro currency. EIA crude stocks rose 4.175 million barrels, which was about double market expectations. Some traders were concerned over total US product demand, which came in at 17.7 million barrels per day, and that might be indicative of a sluggish economy. Current inventory levels are 4.217 million barrels below year ago levels but 10.405 million barrels above the five year average. Crude oil imports for the week stood at 8.88 million barrels per day compared to 8.853 million barrels the previous week. The refinery operating rate slipped 0.4% to 81.8%, compared to 84.5% last year and the five year average of 83.47%. Some traders saw the drop in refinery capacity as a factor that might have inspired the large build in crude stocks last week. March crude oil has downside support below at its 200 day moving average at $96.22. This level also corresponds with downtrend channel support off of the January high, which adds a little more credence to the level. The early edge goes to the bear camp, with resistance at $98.40 and then $99.49.

PRODUCT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: GASOLINE: March RBOB prices extended their decline following yesterday’s bearish reversal. The market is growing more concerned over extremely weak US gasoline demand readings at the same time that supply concerns ease over recent refinery closures. Meanwhile, yesterday’s price decline and lower cash prices seemed to inspire modest buying interest. The test will be if that buying interest shows up again this morning. Yesterday’s EIA report showed a larger than expected increase in gasoline stocks of 3.017 million barrels. It is possible that some of that large build came on rising retail gasoline prices that might have weighed on demand. The build reduced the deficit compared to year ago levels to 6.081 million barrels. Average total gasoline demand for the past four weeks was down 7.29% compared to last year. Gasoline imports came in at 1.045 million barrels per day compared to 722,000 barrels the previous week. The early bias favors the bear camp, while the short-trend trend points up until the $2.8360 low comes out. It is possible that the March RBOB is setting up a double top pattern on the short term charts, with support at $2.8537. Confirmation below that support level targets a deeper break toward $2.7740.

HEATING OIL: March heating oil prices are on a slightly lower track during the overnight hours, pressured by weakness in the crude oil market. Yesterday’s price action fell short of Tuesday’s high of $3.0900, reversed and established a lower low. This suggests that the higher prices has encouraged more supply on to the market and caused the rejection in upward action. The negative reversal in heating oil prices came on the heels of a slight EIA distillate inventory decline of 135,000 barrels. EIA distillate stocks are 18.668 million barrels below last year but 7,000 above the five year average. Distillate imports came in at 192,000 barrels per day compared to 146,000 barrels the previous week. Average total distillate demand for the past four weeks was down 1.65% compared to last year. Heating oil stocks slipped 1.256 million barrels on the week and registered their lowest level for this week of the year since 2008. March heating oil prices have support below at $3.0340. Further weakness below this level would mark a breakdown out of recent congestion and point to a deeper break toward $2.97. Near term resistance comes in at $3.0700.

TODAY’S ENERGY MARKET GUIDANCE: The crude oil complex is lower to start this morning, continuing to adjust to yesterday’s weak EIA readings. March crude oil has support below at its 200 day moving average this morning at $96.22. The price pattern off of this week’s high of $101.39 leaves the potential for a further break toward $95.40. March RBOB is closing in on short term support at $2.8537, and further weakness below this level targets a break toward $2.7740. The market appears to be pricing in the extremely weak demand readings and probably needs more refinery problems to tighten supplies and support the market.

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March cocoa continues to build on this month’s sharp rally, with prices rising more than 22% during the past three weeks. In addition to ongoing concern with this season’s cocoa crop in the Ivory Coast, a report that Indonesian cocoa production may decline 10% to 15% from last season’s already below-average levels provided further support for the market as that nation has been a traditional supplier to the US market. Many analysts are forecasting double-digit declines for cocoa production in the Ivory Coast and Ghana this season, due in large part to excessive dry weather over the past few months. The improvement in broad-market sentiment has also helped to underpin cocoa prices at these high levels, although any sort of Euro zone risk flare-up or weak US economic data could erode this support in a hurry. In addition, concerns over global demand have been elevated due to sluggish fourth quarter cocoa grinding data from Europe and North America.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: With prices rising over $200 during the past four sessions, end-of-week profit-taking could dampen upside momentum later on in the session. The upcoming Commitment of Traders data will reflect any substantial reduction of the non-Commercial net short position during this week’s rally, as fund short-covering has been a major component of this year’s huge rally.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: While this week’s upside breakout to fresh two-month highs should have plenty of technically-based support, prices could be vulnerable to a sharp pullback if outside markets fail to maintain their positive tone.

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While the Treasury market looks to come in above the prior two closes on the charts, the trade is probably hesitant to drive prices sharply in either direction ahead of the FOMC statement that will be released later today. In fact, with the FOMC statement today expected to be accompanied by individual Fed member interest rate forecasts and perhaps by inflation targets, many traders might take a wait and see attitude. However, some Treasury market support might be present this morning from the Euro zone situation, which in turn might be fostered by the avalanche of Press commentary flowing from the Davos conference as that coverage has tended to focus on the negatives from Europe.

The US Treasury market garner some support from news that the UK 4th quarter GDP was negative and also because that reading was slightly below market expectations, as that in turn seemed to keep the fear of a global recession alive. On the other hand, the BOE MPC voted 9-0 to keep its QE efforts unchanged and they also suggested that there was a slightly reduced nearer term threat of a sharp contraction.

In looking ahead to the scheduled US data flows today, market expectations call for a minor contraction in pending home sales figures. Following the home sales release will be an 11:30 AM FOMC statement release, a mid day auction of $35 billion in 5 Year Notes and then a 1:15 Fed Press conference.

With the new format from the Fed offering additional information, it is difficult to predict the reaction in Treasury prices, especially with the rate and inflation forecasts lacking historical reference. Also due out today, is a report on mass layoffs, which could attract some attention, as the flow of scheduled data recently has been a little thin. At least for the coming 8 hours, the focus of the Treasury trade is likely to increase its attention to events on this side of the Atlantic, especially since the Greek debt talks have seemingly returned to square one.

With weaker equities to start, steady demand for the auction yesterday and unresolved Euro zone issues, the bull camp might think that the recent lows are capable of holding up prices. On the other hand, a clean sweep of better than expected US scheduled data and overtly upbeat dialogue from the US Fed, could revive the bearish attitude that seems to have dominated the US Treasury markets since the January 18th highs.

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Global equity markets turned lower during the early morning hours as they turned focus to more corporate earnings and the result of a 2-day FOMC meeting. While shares were modestly higher in Japan, the major global indices turned lower in Europe. It seems that lingering Greek debt default fears as well as disappointing quarterly results from Ericsson, which reported a plunge in quarterly demand have undermined sentiment. The German DAX is showing a smaller loss this morning, perhaps helped by German sentiment data that was up for the 3rd month in a row, as that in turn suggests the German economy might be able to stave off a recession. Last night’s State of the Union address from President Obama offered little lasting support to the stock market, but it was seen by some as a campaign speech. US economic data this morning offers up a look into the housing market, with December Pending Home Sales expected to show a slight decline from the November reading. More importantly is today’s verdict of the 2-day FOMC meeting.

S&P 500: The March S&P continues to dance around a short term equilibrium level at the 1311.00 area, with the last four daily settlements falling inside of an extremely tight 1-point range. This coiling-type action suggests that the market is in search of fresh fundamentals for its next direction. Meanwhile, some traders viewed the recent action as “toppy” and did not want to increase risk after the strong start of 2012, especially in front of a FOMC meeting result later in the session. ConocoPhillips was trading higher in early morning action on the hopes that the company can deliver a strong Q4 earnings report. Expectations are for the company to show an 11.5% increase from the year ago quarter. Yesterday’s mid-day weakness breeched swing low support but was able to end on a strong note. Nonetheless, the short term trend for the March S&P looks tired and due for a correction. Uptrend channel support this morning comes in at 1301.50.

DOW: The March E-mini Dow established a higher high during the early morning hours but has since turned into negative territory. It is possible that some of the early lift in the index came from a 1.0% gain in Boeing shares on reports of new business from Norwegian Air Shuttle. Boeing releases their Q4 earnings before the Wall Street open and are expected to show a nearly 10% decline compared to Q4 2010. United Technologies releases their Q4 earnings this morning, which are expected to show earnings growth of nearly 11.0% compared to Q4 2010. While yesterday’s earnings from Dow components McDonalds, J&J and DuPont came in better than expected, they failed to inspire fresh enthusiasm to the upside. This could be a sign of a market that has become tired and overbought. The intermediate term price trend in the March E-mini Dow points up, with support at 12,553. Confirmation of a move below 12,486 could put the bear camp on top.

NASDAQ: The March NASDAQ registered a new contract high overnight helped by Apple earnings. The company posted record sales and profits on the quarter that were supported by very strong holiday demand for its iPhone and iPad. Shares of Apple were up nearly 7.0% in German trading this morning, and that is a force that should limit weakness in the index this morning. Meanwhile, Yahoo’s Q4 revenues and sales fell short of estimates amid weak advertising demand. There was also a pair of warnings from AMD and Altera Corp yesterday that pointed to weaker tech-related sales prospects ahead. The bulls have the advantage this morning and remain in a short term uptrend pattern. Key swing low support for the March NASDAQ stands at 2419.50.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The major US indices start on a softer note this morning, with the exception of the NASDAQ which is benefiting from new record high prices in Apple. However, recent low trading volumes, growing level of complacency and overbought technicals suggest that the US indices could be ripe for a correction. There also appears to be change in sector leadership, with recent gainers failing to participate on rallies. Some technicians suggest that the current wave pattern in the S&P 500 is nearing the conclusion of its b-wave rally (off the October low), which suggests that next primary leg in the index is down, potentially targeting the 1050.00 area in the March S&P 500. We would like to see a bit more confirmation of a turn before getting short. Aggressive bears might consider buying out-of-the money puts on strength.

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DOLLAR: The Dollar has ground out a moderate gain this morning as prices are holding well above this week’s lows. While the market appears to be getting used to unresolved debt problems in Europe, attention will shift back to the US later on during today’s session. Post-meeting comments from the FOMC could erode a portion of the Dollar’s recent support, especially if the Fed points towards more accommodative US monetary policy during the near future. A private survey of US housing could also provide further direction for the Dollar if there are surprisingly positive results on a report that is expected to be softer but the market may ultimately be waiting to see the Fed’s outlook before letting the Dollar put together any substantial recovery. The Dollar may find resistance near the 80.50 level during today’s session, and it may be able to extend today’s rebound if the Fed meeting results do not erode market sentiment.

EURO: The March Euro failed to benefit from decent economic data out of Germany and has slid back below the 130.00 level this morning. The failure to finalize a Greek debt swap deal has become a serious impediment to any further recovery in the Euro, and that news has certainly kept risk concerns at elevated levels. If Euro zone nations start to have problems with the market taking down their debt at upcoming auctions, the March Euro could end up revisiting the mid-January lows again during the near future. The March Euro may find support near the 129.25 level today, and it will need some sense of resolution with peripheral EU debt problems in order to revive this month’s recovery.

YEN: The March Yen remains in a tailspin this morning, as prices have fallen to their lowest levels since mid-December. Last night’s Japanese Trade numbers confirmed market expectations of Japan’s first annual trade deficit in over three decades, which for their export-driven economy has underscored the sluggish conditions in Japan right now. Japanese authorities may be keeping their powder dry, with the market doing their job of weakening the Yen, but any intervention at this point would send prices back towards the late October lows in a hurry. The March Yen may find support at the 127.85 level today, and it should remain on the defensive during the balance of today’s session.

SWISS: The March Swiss has come under pressure this morning from Euro zone debt anxiety but may find support near the recent lows, as the market may be looking forward to a test of the 1.20 Swiss/Euro rate, that the Swiss National Bank has vowed to defend. While any breakthrough is unlikely, look for the Swiss to outperform the Euro, as long as Greek debt concerns weigh on market sentiment. The March Swiss may find support near the 107.00 level and it is likely to stay well below this week’s highs as long as Euro zone debt problems hold onto the market’s attention.

POUND: The March Pound is holding up fairly well considering the negative impact of today’s weak UK GDP number, as well as the reaction to the Bank of England meeting minutes that may be pointing towards fresh quantitative easing measures during the near future. If macro-economic sentiment can produce a rebound later on during the session, the March Pound could rally back into new high ground for this current rally. The March Pound may find resistance at the 156.00 level and may be on track to post a new 2012 high, if today’s intra-day recovery gains further momentum.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The March Canadian has fallen well below Monday’s 21/2 month highs as yesterday’s Canadian Retail Sales numbers highlighted the lukewarm tone of recent economic data. If the March Canadian is to be more reliant on commodity and equity markets to extend this rally, any chance of a rebound today may have to wait until FOMC post-meeting comments are out of the way. The March Canadian may find support near the 98.25 level this morning and it may need to see a broad-market turnaround in order to retest this week’s highs.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar should find enough support from ongoing Euro zone anxiety to hold onto early gains but could fall back towards this week’s lows if the market receives post-FOMC meeting comments as a sign of easier US monetary policy in the near future. If there is a widespread improvement with broad-markets sentiment later in the session, the March Pound could rally up towards a new weekly high.

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So far, 2012 has seen a better than expected chain of events than might have been expected at the end of 2011, as Euro zone fears have tempered slightly, there have been indications that China could be in the process of shifting away from a tightening stance, and US economic activity has continued to give off signs of forward progress. Certainly the floating of surging European debt will be a long, drawn out affair that could at any time serve to yank the rug out from under the markets, but so far the take-down of their debt has gone favorably. It is possible that the markets are starting to settle on the idea that Greece might be allowed to fail and in turn be forced from the EU. While that event will most certainly foster significant volatility, it could end up being the de facto end of the Euro crisis. On the other hand, with even a moderate improvement in macroeconomic conditions in the Euro zone, it could become increasingly more difficult to spark full-blown anxiety events, and that more than anything could speed the crisis toward a favorable outcome. Recent suggestions from the US Fed seem to indicate that the US will remain supportive of the global economy, even in the face of improvement in the job market and, more surprisingly, even in the face of an increase in near term inflationary pressures. In other words, some members of the US Fed are acknowledging the severity of the Euro zone crisis, and they are apparently willing to increase the risk of inflation pressures in the US in order to facilitate a return to global stability.

From a physical commodity market perspective, it might not take much forward movement in the global economy to see many commodity prices rally in 2012. We would suggest that commodity markets in general have already seen a healthy liquidation of speculative long positions (as can be seen in a chart of the composite non-commercial and nonreportable net long positions for non-financial commodities). Therefore, we think that the risk to longs in markets like silver, copper, platinum, rice, cocoa, natural gas, and soybean meal might be somewhat limited in the months ahead.

Traders should not underestimate how important China is to several physical commodity markets. In addition to their possible shift to an easier monetary policy stance, China will also have a noted impact on commodity markets that receive fresh demand from restocking efforts. Those include corn, soybeans, sugar, cotton, copper and pork. In the near term, the best leading indicator for many commodities might be the action in the Shanghai stock market, which appears to have managed a bottom with the action in early January. If the equity market action isn’t convincing enough to declare a turn up in the Chinese economy, one might simply look back to China’s four record monthly coal import readings over the last year as evidence that their economy has retained its capacity for forward motion.

So far, 2012 has seen a better than expected chain of events than might have been expected at the end of 2011, as Euro zone fears have tempered slightly, there have been indications that China could be in the process of shifting away from a tightening stance, and US economic activity has continued to give off signs of forward progress. Certainly the floating of surging European debt will be a long, drawn out affair that could at any time serve to yank the rug out from under the markets, but so far the take-down of their debt has gone favorably. It is possible that the markets are starting to settle on the idea that Greece might be allowed to fail and in turn be forced from the EU. While that event will most certainly foster significant volatility, it could end up being the de facto end of the Euro crisis. On the other hand, with even a moderate improvement in macroeconomic conditions in the Euro zone, it could become increasingly more difficult to spark full-blown anxiety events, and that more than anything could speed the crisis toward a favorable outcome. Recent suggestions from the US Fed seem to indicate that the US will remain supportive of the global economy, even in the face of improvement in the job market and, more surprisingly, even in the face of an increase in near term inflationary pressures. In other words, some members of the US Fed are acknowledging the severity of the Euro zone crisis, and they are apparently willing to increase the risk of inflation pressures in the US in order to facilitate a return to global stability.
From a physical commodity market perspective, it might not take much forward movement in the global economy to see many commodity prices rally in 2012. We would suggest that commodity markets in general have already seen a healthy liquidation of speculative long positions (as can be seen in a chart of the composite non-commercial and nonreportable net long positions for non-financial commodities). Therefore, we think that the risk to longs in markets like silver, copper, platinum, rice, cocoa, natural gas, and soybean meal might be somewhat limited in the months ahead.
Traders should not underestimate how important China is to several physical commodity markets. In addition to their possible shift to an easier monetary policy stance, China will also have a noted impact on commodity markets that receive fresh demand from restocking efforts. Those include corn, soybeans, sugar, cotton, copper and pork. In the near term, the best leading indicator for many commodities might be the action in the Shanghai stock market, which appears to have managed a bottom with the action in early January. If the equity market action isn’t convincing enough to declare a turn up in the Chinese economy, one might simply look back to China’s four record monthly coal import readings over the last year as evidence that their economy has retained its capacity for forward motion.

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While March 30-Year Bond prices climbed to a new 4-week high recently, we feel they are richly priced and vulnerable to a temporary setback. The recent trend of US economic data has shown continued improvement, suggesting that the US recovery could be gaining some momentum. While the US Treasury market will continue to ebb and flow with developments surrounding the European debt debacle, it is possible that the worst of that situation has already been priced into the market. So far in 2012, European debt auctions have gone generally better than expected, and that has helped to thaw short term lending markets in the region. Also, interest rates yields in Italy and Spain have eased from their recent extremes. Those governments have come to the market with new issuance, but so far the market doesn’t appear to be extracting a high cost for their borrowings. One of the market’s primary fears became a reality back on Friday January 13th when Standard and Poor’s downgraded credit ratings on eight European countries, but even that didn’t seem to prompt a typical anxiety event. While that negative headlines generated some safety bids and in turn served to push March Notes above their December highs, March bonds were not able to take out their December highs. Europe’s ability to successfully tap the capital markets could extract some of the fear premium out of the US Treasury market in the coming weeks.

The recent trend of US economic data has provided some hope that the US recovery will begin to stand on its own. The US labor market saw continuing jobless claims fall precipitously from their June 2009 peak of 6.398 million to the lowest level in 13 quarters at 3.657 million as of December 10th. More recently, US June Consumer Confidence climbed to its best level in eight months to 64.5 in December, and manufacturing activity has shown signs of leaving its 2011 summer trough. Additionally, the US housing market has also shown signs of improvement, evidenced by a surge in building permits and construction spending and US housing starts reaching 685,000 in November, their highest level since April 2010. Meanwhile, inflation is beginning to increase, with the December Producer Price Index (excluding food and energy) coming in at an annualized rate of 3.0%, the highest level since June 2009. Coincidentally, there has been a growing chorus of Fed officials that are leaning toward a pro-inflationary stance, as indicated by the continued commitment to extremely low interest rates even in the face of modest inflationary pressures.

While the latest string of US Treasury auctions showed very active participation at extremely low interest rates, there is growing competition from other nations (particularly the Euro zone) as well as from the private sector seeking capital. This could present a challenge in the weeks ahead. If the situation in Europe shows any sign of progress, that could help drive up rates on US Treasuries as they try to attract demand.

March Bonds have traded within a trading of 146-12 to 134-22 over the past four months. The market’s inability to rally to new highs in the wake of the latest European debt downgrade and in the face of recent promises of more easy monetary policy from the US Fed suggests that prices are a bit rich at 145-00.

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CRUDE OIL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: March crude oil prices traded down to a new 3-session low during the initial morning hours, which leaves this week’s high of $102.24 as resistance. Early weakness in the crude oil market comes from a rally in the US dollar and slight weakening trend in US equity markets. There appears to be fresh concerns regarding European demand following reports that Swiss refiner Petroplus was putting one of its 5 refineries up for sale, with the prospect of selling two more. The market also appears to have an interest in debt swap talks in Greece, which so far has been a slow and tedious process especially since bondholders are expected to take more than a 60% loss on their investment. Meanwhile, weakness this morning could be tempered by expectations that EU leaders will reach an agreement on an embargo of Iranian oil as early Monday. Recent price action in March crude oil could be seen as a bearish victory in the wake of yesterday’s unexpected crude inventory draw. EIA crude stocks fell 3.438 million barrels, quite different than expectations for a 2.0 million barrel build. While some traders viewed the large 3.7 million barrel gasoline build and fall in demand seemed to offset the large crude inventory decline. EIA crude stocks are 4.52 million barrels below year ago levels but stand 9.09 million barrels above the five year average. One of the key factors behind the surprisingly large draw came from a sharp fall in crude oil imports for the week, down to 8.265 million barrels per day from 9.907 million barrels the previous week. The refinery operating rate was down 1.9% to 83.7%, which compares to 83.0% last year and the five year average of 83.7%. The drop in the refinery rate was partially seasonal as operations begin to prepare for seasonal maintenance. The intermediate price trend continues to favor the bear camp, with downside targeting $98.50. Swing high resistance stands at $103.19.

PRODUCT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: GASOLINE: March RBOB prices trended lower throughout the overnight and early morning hours as they remained inside of yesterday’s range. It appears that the market is digesting yesterday’s unexpectedly large inventory build in the face of the Hovensa refinery closure. Prices took yesterday’s EIA data that showed a 3.717 million barrels decline in gasoline stocks hard. Current inventory levels are 150,000 barrels below last year but 4.274 million above the five year average. The other negative factor in yesterday’s report was the fall in average total gasoline demand for the past four weeks, which was down 6.1% compared to last year. Gasoline imports came in at 553,000 barrels per day compared to 444,000 barrels the previous week. This week’s price action and advance to the highest level since August 2nd keeps the bull camp in charge. However, further weakness this morning below $2.8097 would be a negative.

HEATING OIL: March heating oil continued to hover around the 200 day moving average during the overnight session ($3.0372), and it also remains trapped inside of yesterday’s range. Prices broke down yesterday in response to EIA inventory data that showed continued weakness in distillate demand. While the weekly stocks figures showed a smaller than expected build of 438,000 barrels, demand from an abnormally warm winter hangs over the market. EIA distillate stocks stand 17.796 million barrels below last year but 189,000 above the five year average. Distillate imports came in at 219,000 barrels per day compared to 163,000 barrels the previous week. Average total distillate demand for the past four weeks was down 4.43% compared to last year. EIA Heating oil stocks fell 2.263 million barrels last week, but the 33.308 million barrel reading is the lowest for this week since 2008. The breakdown in March heating oil prices from last week’s high of $3.1286 continues to respect downtrend channel resistance at $3.0445. The short term price trend favors the bear camp, with targeting below at $2.9580.

TODAY’S ENERGY MARKET GUIDANCE: The crude oil complex has taken a lower track this morning and continues to look to the outside market for direction. The fundamental backdrop is a slight negative for the complex, but geopolitical risks (Iran) and recent boost in risk appetites offer support. February crude oil expires today, and that could be a factor injects an added level of volatility.

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Apparently the markets have mostly discounted the end of week credit ratings downgrade from Europe, as global equity markets are showing overnight gains. In fact, with Euro zone inflation readings overnight also prompting talk of easing from the ECB, the trade has found a number of issues to distract attention from last week’s downgrades. Even results from a Spanish debt auction overnight appear to have provided some fresh optimism for the equation this morning, as falling yields in the Euro zone go a long way in reversing the anxiety that was put in place late last week by the S&P. Sentiment might be drawing an additional lift from favorable Chinese data overnight, as portions of the trade have come to the conclusion that a downtick in Chinese inflation and signs of weakness in the Chinese GDP figures, have opened up the potential for Chinese easing. However, the slowing in China was limited and that in turn could tamp down fears that China might be flirting with a hard landing. With German ZEW economic expectations overnight showing a massive improvement to a reading of -21.6 from -53.8 in the prior reading, it isn’t surprising to see a quasi risk on tilt in place to start the US holiday shortened week. In the US action today, the market will have a somewhat thin scheduled report slate, with the Empire State Manufacturing report the only report due out. Expectations call for a modest increase in the Empire State figures and that might serve to embolden the bears in Treasuries further, especially if equities see additional lift in the wake of the data. There will be some key financial sector earnings released this morning and in the wake of somewhat disappointing JP Morgan results last week it is possible that bank earnings could damped the initial bullish tilt in equities and physical commodity markets. In looking forward, the markets will see a relatively light US scheduled data slate this week, with Industrial Production and PPI reports due out later this week but those reports aren’t expected to markedly alter existing sentiment.

The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of January 10th for U.S. Treasury Bonds showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 34,694 contracts, an increase of 5,966 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 15,942 contracts, an increase of 3,503 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 18,752 contracts, an increase of 2,463 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 15,942 contracts. This represents an increase of 3,503 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.

US Treasury 10 Year Notes showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 25,067 contracts, an increase of 15,921 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 11,164 contracts, an increase of 4,497 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 36,232 contracts, an increase of 20,419 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 11,165 contracts. This represents an increase of 4,498 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.

This content originated from - The Hightower Report.