The Hightower Report

STOCKS: Hope for the stimulus package leaves the bulls with control
BONDS: Expect a fresh downside breakout off fresh supply evidence
CURRENCIES: Dollar and Yen dominance is starting to break down
COPPER: The bulls have the edge but the market should be limited
METALS: Residual bullishness in place – A shift away from flight to quality?
CATTLE: Need strong demand signals to see sharp up; expect chop/higher
HOGS: Forming s low and preparing to absorb smaller supply ahead; consolidate
BEANS: Fundamentals somewhat negative, but technicals point higher for now.
CORN: Outlook still bearish, but selling may be temporarily exhausted.
WHEAT: Further tests of the recent lows may be followed by short covering.
ENERGY: For now supply builds are being discounted
COTTON: Will need confidence in world economy to buy; sell calls
COFFEE: In position to remain in uptrend but may need some help from outside
SUGAR: Buy rumor; sell fact selling ahead; Overbought and due for set-back
COCOA: Still looks overbought & speculators may lack buying incentive right now

STOCKS: More slowing evidence favors the bear camp directly ahead
BONDS: Minor short covering capacity despite extremely weak US numbers
CURRENCIES: More Dollar strength but Friday payroll reading is problematic
COPPER: Sell rallies as industrial demand destruction looks set to continue
METALS: Initial weakness but flight to quality fears remain in place
CATTLE: Supply outlook tightening ahead but beef price still probing for low
HOGS: Short-term demand news still weak but declining supply ahead; firm
BEANS: Improved South American weather and absence of China somewhat negative.
CORN: February may be the month when farmers increase selling in corn.
WHEAT: Wheat remains under pressure from the dollar and ample world supplies.
ENERGY: Under pressure as global economic conditions leave fuel demand weak
COTTON: Short-term economic news remains weak; more down March cotton
COFFEE: Positive COT but outside market forces still weak; buy corrections
SUGAR: Watch out for “sell the fact” long liquidation selling if India imports
COCOA: Overbought with outside market action inspiring profit taking

STOCKS: After some early weakness off GDP we expect the mkt to find support
BONDS: Until there is a headline change the bears should retain control
CURRENCIES: More Dollar and Yen gains in the face of US slowing evidence
COPPER: Rising LME supply, declining production/demand favors the bears
METALS: The bulls have control mostly off ongoing flight to quality buying
CATTLE: Consumer demand weak as lower production but lower beef price; weak
HOGS: Weak demand tone suggests big problems moving pork exports; Buy 59.67
BEANS: Possibility of more rain in South America keeping the pressure on.
CORN: Fundamental factors are in rough balance. Dollar may decide direction.
WHEAT: Wheat looks like it will follow the dollar. Today, that means lower.
ENERGY: The bears remain in control with more demand destruction fears ahead
COTTON: Short-term economic news remains weak; home furnishings not moving
COFFEE: In position to see steady uptrend ahead; buy corrective breaks
SUGAR: Too much demand uncertainty and supply tightness in India temporary
COCOA: Bull case still in place but vulnerable to end of week profit taking

STOCKS: A slightly weak bias today mostly off classic profit taking
BONDS: We think this week’s lows have become a very critical pivot zone
CURRENCIES: Dollar and Yen are once again leadership currencies
COPPER: The bear camp has the edge especially in face of rising stocks
METALS: A minor negative bias remains in place for the precious metals
CATTLE: Slow demand from consumer continues to force beef lower; more down
HOGS: Reversal for Feb hogs to spark short-covering bounce; Feb to 59?
BEANS: Soybeans waiting for key demand data today. Weather still a mixed bag.
CORN: Weather a mixed bag. Exports and farmer selling the main factors now.
WHEAT: Wheat can start to gain on corn if this week’s sales are not too weak.
ENERGY: The bears have the edge as demand destruction continues
COTTON: New crop may grind higher but overbought condition for March; chop
COFFEE: Overbought and due for some consolidation but trend to remain up
SUGAR: Speculative long liquidation and weak outside markets; 12.19 March
COCOA: Outside market action to inspire short lived profit taking

STOCKS: The market is managing to embrace the positives more minor gains
BONDS: This week’s lows were probably too cheap for the near term
CURRENCIES: More $ Yen losses ahead as flight to quality vanes
COPPER: A minor rally attempt today but the copper mkt needs government help
METALS: Minor corrective action to continue through the FOMC statement
CATTLE: Supply fundamentals more positive but beef trend down; weak consumer
HOGS: Still no sign of low as consumer meat demand still faltering
BEANS: Soybeans broke on better weather, but the Argentine crop still at risk.
CORN: Bullish weather is sidelined and a weak dollar is not helping. Lower.
WHEAT: Wheat is a follower this week, but it has several supportive factors.
ENERGY: Will need a bullish EIA inventory surprise to offset economic gloom
COTTON: Improved demand, smaller 2009/10 crop and buying by funds.
COFFEE: Decline in open interest could be trouble for the bulls
SUGAR: Some India buying but overbought and slow demand news; consolidate
COCOA: Bulls need to see close above $2,720 but vulnerable to profit taking

STOCKS: We can’t argue against periodic bounces but we doubt rallies will hold
BONDS: The bear camp retains the edge as the fear of funding troubles remains
CURRENCIES: Temporary lull in Dollar favor gives the C$ and Pound a temp lift
COPPER: The copper mkt might be able to bounce but gains should be fleeting
METALS: The bias in prices is clearly pointing upward to start the new week
CATTLE: USDA report news supportive for supply but demand concerns persist
HOGS: Probing for low enough price to encourage demand or exports; chop
BEANS: Two-sided trade near recent highs is supportive for meal and soybeans.
CORN: Lack of sellers supporting corn. This could take corn to the Jan highs.
WHEAT: Traders do not seem inclined to sell in wheat. We agree.
ENERGY: Bulls resolve will be tested by more bad economic news this week
COTTON: Large commercial take bulk of deliverable stocks; exports strong
COFFEE: Slight overbought technical condition but breaks still a buy
SUGAR: Outside market support but demand concerns persist; a bit overbought
COCOA: A pickup in fund participation may be needed for a push above $2,720

STOCKS: The trend might be down but an attempt to bounce is seen early today
BONDS: Minor downward bias as slowing fears are overshadowed by supply fear
CURRENCIES: The flow should continue to favor the $ as the lesser of evils
COPPER: The edge remains with the bear camp
METALS: Divergence between precious and industrial metals to continue
CATTLE: Should not take much in the way of positive demand news to turn up
HOGS: Watch for Technical sign of a low to buy February hogs; cash trend up
BEANS: Mixed weather outlook opens door for influence from outside markets.
CORN: Lack of upside follow-through yesterday suggests a more 2-sided outlook.
WHEAT: Wheat got most of the downside potential out of the way yesterday.
ENERGY: Up on tech bounce but need firm equities for gains to hold
COTTON: Choppy to lower trade ahead as world economic news worsens; weak
COFFEE: In position to work higher with 2009/2010 world production deficit
SUGAR: Sugar in bull trend despite negative outside market forces; 13.14
COCOA: Choppy range bound trade as fundamentals keep market hemmed in

STOCKS: Euphoria versus economic reality, euphoria temporarily gains control
BONDS: The bears have control for at least the coming two trading sessions
CURRENCIES: The Dollar is king at least for the coming two sessions
COPPER: The bears have an edge but political euphoria is countervailing
METALS: Expect initial strength in gold and silver to prevail until mid day
CATTLE: Consumer psychology may benefit from new Administration; firm
HOGS: Probing for low enough price to adjust for slower demand/less meat
BEANS: Complex surprisingly strong overnight considering outside markets.
CORN: Over-sold condition was deeper than we thought. Corn could make a run.
WHEAT: Wheat has the biggest problem with a strong dollar. Look to sell.
ENERGY: Selling inspired by negative economic conditions & strong Dollar
COTTON: Choppy to lower trade ahead with negative outside market forces
COFFEE: Consolidated recent gains from Jan 5th lows; minor bull news supports
SUGAR: Still supported by long term production deficit and inflation fears
COCOA: Under pressure from bearish break in Pound & Dollar rally

STOCKS: The bears have fear and anxiety in their court expect more selling
BONDS: The bias remains up and the old highs are now a target
CURRENCIES: A critical junction for the Dollar after the numbers this morning
COPPER: The bears have control expect a pattern of lower lows ahead
METALS: Despite initial strength the bear camp retains the edge today
CATTLE: Weak demand outlook but Feb already discount; tighter supply ahead
HOGS: Collapse in hams plus futures premium to cash a bearish combination
BEANS: Soybeans may be poised for another step down. Best to sell on weakness.
CORN: Corn remains supported by a lack of sellers. This is temporary.
WHEAT: Sideways trade is setting wheat market up for a surge to the downside.
ENERGY: Sell rallies as demand destruction fears should escalate
COTTON: Choppy to lower trade expected to continue until econ outlook improves
COFFEE: World production deficit may spark increased coverage, short-covering
SUGAR: Clash of improving supply news against recessionary demand pricing
COCOA: Today’s economic data could trigger more selling unless Pound action offsets

STOCKS: Renewed slowing concerns, poor earnings, financial concerns
BONDS: The bias is up with more slowing views expected directly ahead
CURRENCIES: The Yen and $ dominate at the expense of Euro, Pound & C$
COPPER: Slackening demand and rising supply gives the bears the edge
METALS: The bears retain the edge off a higher Dollar and slowing fears
CATTLE: Probing for low enough price to entice demand; supply on the decline
HOGS: Cash trend up, cold weather ahead and slightly oversold; watch for low
BEANS: Bearish USDA reports may diminish fund buying – a long term problem.
CORN: The surprise was a bearish one. This is extending the needed correction.
WHEAT: Yesterday’s break was a major wake-up call. It may curtail fund buying.
ENERGY: With demand weak, expect weather related price support to be temporary
COTTON: Demand still weak but not enough plantings for 2009; chop down
COFFEE: Good position to see uptrend in 2009; oversold with production deficit
SUGAR: Some improving fundamentals but energy/deflation limits up
COCOA: The weak Pound, economic demand concerns offsetting supply tightness