The Hightower Report

STOCKS: After some initial weakness we suspect the market will recover
BONDS: Unless the numbers lift prices early expect a bit of a correction
CURRENCIES: Minor Dollar weakness with the Euro and Swiss primary benefactors
COPPER: Traders should look to recoveries as a chance to implement fresh shorts
METALS: After some early weakness expect a weak attempt to bounce later on
CATTLE: Improved beef trend could support packer margins; tighter supply ahead
HOGS: Probing for near-term low with talk of weak demand for this week; chop
BEANS: Soybeans and meal seem to want to go higher. Who is there to stop them?
CORN: Corn prices are being held up by lack of selling. This should continue.
WHEAT: If downside correction is coming, it’s likely to be today or tomorrow.
ENERGY: Look to rallies as an opportunity to implement fresh shorts
COTTON: Slow steady uptrend but demand still weak and spec selling soon?
COFFEE: Set-up for uptrend into 2009 but short-term soft demand pressures
SUGAR: Choppy to lower downtrend; long liquidation into New Year?
COCOA: Overbought and still vulnerable to pre-holiday profit taking

STOCKS: Minor weakness and profit taking expected this morning
BONDS: Slight back and fill action today before Tuesday numbers lift prices
CURRENCIES: Minor Dollar weakness through Tuesday #’s then expect a $ bounce
COPPER: The path of least resistance remains down in copper
METALS: The bulls hold an edge mostly off the prospect of a slumping Dollar
CATTLE: Weak cash action keeps trade choppy but tighter supply to support
HOGS: Taking out premium in a period of sloppy cash but supply tightens ahead
BEANS: Hot weekend weather in South America supports upside break-out
CORN: Relatively firm close on Friday may indicate further modest strength.
WHEAT: We’re waiting for a short term correction, but don’t get bearish.
ENERGY: Prospects of OPEC cuts not enough to counter declining real oil demand
COTTON: Energy or stock market weakness could spark another round of selling
COFFEE: Positive longer-term fundamentals but upfront demand concerns persist
SUGAR: Beginning stocks and recessionary demand may force more spec selling
COCOA: Vulnerable to profit taking but weak $ could attract fresh buyers

STOCKS: The bulls will need a bailout if the White House balks on loan package
BONDS: Today’s action is all about political decisions on the auto sector
CURRENCIES: Follow through short covering in the Dollar for today only
COPPER: The bulls only hope is a very robust auto sector bailout offer
METALS: Negative bias today is accentuated by technical profit taking prospects
CATTLE: Longer-term supply bull but short-term demand to allow for set-back
HOGS: Seems to have the supply set-up for a solid uptrend in 2009; buy breaks
BEANS: Soybeans holding up well despite bounce in the dollar. Buy on strength.
CORN: We are correcting the correction based on a lower dollar & weak demand.
WHEAT: Bulls need to pull in their horns a bit, but correction may be minor.
ENERGY: Without a very strong auto sector bailout the bears retain control
COTTON: Weak recessionary demand for cotton and negative outside markets; down
COFFEE: Positive longer-term set-up to support uptrend but weak today
SUGAR: Weak econ news and deflationary pressures to spark more spec selling
COCOA: Vulnerable to profit taking but pullback limited by bullish supply view

STOCKS: For some reason the market has a preference for the bull tilt
BONDS: Auto sector threats might prompt the President to act be defensive
CURRENCIES: The Dollar down draft looks set to continue
COPPER: More new contract lows ahead
METALS: More Dollar losses ahead should mean more gold and silver gains ahead
CATTLE: Positive supply fundamentals into next year; demand to remain volatile
HOGS: Reversal may be sign of near-term low; rejected lower price; up for now
BEANS: Traders may need to wait for a break to buy and a rally to sell.
CORN: Corn stalled yesterday on increased farmer selling; correct down?
WHEAT: Momentum is building. We’d still buy despite recent series of gains.
ENERGY: Without a weaker Dollar the bulls have no case
COTTON: Saw a recovery bounce and could begin to see demand pressures mount
COFFEE: Coffee demand does not normally drop off significantly in recession
SUGAR: Weakening economic news and weak energy sector may keep cash tone weak
COCOA: Profit taking on overbought technicals & uncertain supply outlook

STOCKS: It all comes down to the tilt of the Senate the bulls need a bill badly
BONDS: The trend is up but the Senate vote is a major pivot point decision
CURRENCIES: Many currencies are behaving as if a deal is going to be reached
COPPER: Look to sell after the market forges a sharp recovery bounce
METALS: At least initially the bull camp looks to retain control
CATTLE: Weakening beef price this week but trade believes cash will firm?
HOGS: Big premium, seasonal weakness hams; buyers can be patient; chop for now
BEANS: USDA report to set tone today; outside forces supportive
CORN: Support from outside markets may extend the short-covering rally.
WHEAT: If the dollar keeps breaking, this is more than a short-covering rally.
ENERGY: The bulls need help from the Senate or macro selling will resume
COTTON: A weakening world demand trend to keep ending stock news bearish; weak
COFFEE: Coffee supply declining into 2009 while demand only slightly down
SUGAR: Impressive bounce off of lows but demand news still lacking; deflation?
COCOA: With supplies tight, a weak Dollar provides an extra buying incentive

STOCKS: Equity prices still seem to be relative expensive within the Nov range
BONDS: The trend is up but the mkts are overbought and today’s #’s are crucial
CURRENCIES: A major decision window for the Dollar this morning
COPPER: Unless the numbers provide economic hope the bears retain control
METALS: The metals are physical commodities facing more evidence of slowing
CATTLE: Demand news bearish but discount and supply outlook may support
HOGS: Not responding to tightening meat supply yet; still premium structure
BEANS: Momentum developing to the downside. China demand is all we have.
CORN: Recent downward pattern keeping the pressure on. Corn not yet oversold.
WHEAT: Wheat may see a temporary short covering bounce. This is a sale.
ENERGY: Unless economic sentiment improves we see crude falling below $40
COTTON: Poor economic news, lack of new interested buyers may pressure ahead
COFFEE: Probing for lows with bearish outside forces; set-up bullish for 2009
SUGAR: Will need shift in outside market forces to turn trend; down for now
COCOA: Price dips should be short lived as long as a tight supply view holds

STOCKS: With a more active flow of data we expect the bear camp to control
BONDS: Traders should look to buy the weaker opening this morning
CURRENCIES: Relative strength ranking Yen, $, Canadian, Swiss, Euro, Pound
COPPER: The downward bias remains in place despite production cut news
METALS: The path of least resistance is still pointing downward
CATTLE: Oversold and futures stiff discount; declining supply; sell puts
HOGS: Poor environment for chasing big premium; chop/lower for now
BEANS: The market is acknowledging the increasingly bearish fundamentals.
CORN: Compressed trading ranges are negative. We may see a stair-step down.
WHEAT: Lack of a rally yesterday suggests new lows by Friday. Wheat is a sale.
ENERGY: The fear of further demand loss should continue to dominate
COTTON: Declining China demand may result in rising US ending stocks; weak
COFFEE: Still probing for lows; consider bull call spreads for May coffee
SUGAR: Too many longs waiting for bullish long-term forces; more down for now
COCOA: Tech profit taking still possible but buy dips on tight supply view

STOCKS: After an initial bounce expect the market to finish poorly
BONDS: Temporarily setback possible traders should be buying breaks
CURRENCIES: The yen remains the leadership currency not the US Dollar
COPPER: Traders should look to rallies as an opportunity to get short
METALS: Minor bounce potential this morning but gains should be fleeting
CATTLE: Oversold but packer demand slowing; chop down but support to hold
HOGS: Big premium a limiting force; wait for correction to buy
BEANS: Fundamentals shifting more toward the bear side. Sell on a bounce.
CORN: Stand aside today in case of a recovery rally. New lows still to come.
WHEAT: Outlook is negative, but there may be a 1-day reaction rally.
ENERGY: Temporary bounce potential but the trend in prices remains down
COTTON: Corrected oversold and must now absorb bearish econ news; weak
COFFEE: Probing for low but deflationary pressures persist; 108.05 obj
SUGAR: Bears seem to have the edge; weaker demand and deflationary pressures
COCOA: Buy a bull call spread in case Ivory Coast supplies stay tight

STOCKS: At least 2 days down off overdone technicals
BONDS: Ongoing slowing fears despite decent sales highlight bull control
CURRENCIES: Ongoing flight to quality interest in the Dollar and the Yen ahead
COPPER: Minor downside action ahead of fears of slowing re-surface
METALS: Renewed deflationary selling expected directly ahead
CATTLE: Weak consumer demand for higher-priced beef cuts to limit upside; weak
HOGS: Set-back in pork, strong dollar not good for holding stiff premium; chop
BEANS: Outside weakness pulling market lower. New lows? Maybe not by much.
CORN: Modest support from wheat and soybeans evaporating. New lows likely.
WHEAT: Wheat is eroding along with corn and soybeans, but it may gain on corn.
ENERGY: Global recession, OPEC inaction gives the bear camp leverage
COTTON: Recover bounce may be complete; March cotton obj 39.90 on weak demand
COFFEE: Saw a nice bounce in a bear trend; more up or 107.90 next objective
SUGAR: Without some help from outside forces; more long liquidation ahead
COCOA: Buy price corrections as long as Ivory Coast supply stays tight

STOCKS: Give the market some initial respect but be short before the close
BONDS: The bullish bias remains in place but ranges might narrow today
CURRENCIES: Look to be long the Yen on any weakness today
COPPER: Renewed fears of slowing give the bear camp the edge today
METALS: Profit taking could be accentuated by month end book squaring
CATTLE: Weak demand tone may support more back and fill action; chop for now
HOGS: Futures at stiff premium but cash news positive and trend up
BEANS: The 1-week rally based on improved economic sentiment is unimpressive.
CORN: Upside momentum in wheat & soybeans is slowing. Corn may make new lows.
WHEAT: Buy on a move through resistance levels or simply stand aside.
ENERGY: Early weakness may give way to sht covering if OPEC signals big cut
COTTON: Bounce helped ease oversold condition but demand news to weaken; down
COFFEE: Watch for bounce but not much more; 122.30 as key resistance for March
SUGAR: New news slow, weak demand from Russia; recovery bounce near complete?
COCOA: Up as the global supply/demand outlook turns bullish