Tag Archives: Beanoil

Soybeans: Yield Reports From the Field Showing Better Than Expect

by on October 27, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Ideas that the break was overdone yesterday plus the sharp break in the US dollar to the lowest level since February 7th plus a surging stock market are all seen as positive forces to start the sessions today. Rumors that a large brokerage firm may need to exit long positions in grains, livestock and energy markets if the firm needs to be sold helped to keep pressure on the market late in the session yesterday with November soybeans closing near the lows despite a jump in equity and metal markets. Long traders appeared to be stepping aside due to more volatile trade in financial markets into the EU meetings on the debt crises and this sparked fund trader selling in a wide range of industrial and agricultural commodity markets. Traders indicated good weather for the planting season in South America and concerns for slower than expected US soybean exports ahead as negative factors. Many traders are pushing export forecasts down by 50-75 million bushels due to recent sluggish demand and indications that South America is still an active exporter this late in their season. There were rumors yesterday that China bought a few cargoes from Brazil for December through February shipment which added to the negative export forecast ideas. Brazil is typically out of soybeans at this time of the year with most of the business moving to the US. In addition, commercial traders indicate that Europe has bought no new crop soybeans yet. Weak crush margins have added to the negative tone. Sunflower meal from the Black Sea region is selling at a stiff discount to soymeal. Wet weather for the Eastern Corn Belt was seen as slowing the tail end of the harvest. December oil closed at the lowest level since October 10th. For the weekly export sales report this morning, traders see soybean sales near 800,000 tonnes and meal near 150,000 tonnes.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Yield reports in recent weeks have shown as many “better than expected” surprises as compared with disappointment. We have to believe that there is a possibility that the November estimate is raised slightly. If yield is up, South America supply still high, demand sluggish and next years acreage and yield move higher, one could see a significant jump in ending stocks for this year and next. Slow producer selling and supportive outside markets are short-term positive forces but the market looks vulnerable to more weakness ahead.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The close under 1226 3/4 for January soybeans soured the technical picture and the bulls need to see a close over 1254 1/2 to expect a more significant recovery bounce off of the lows. Resistance comes in at 1245 1/2 and 1254 1/2, with 1219 1/2 and 1209 1/2 as support. A resumption of the downtrend would leave 1117 1/2 as an objective. Outside market forces look powerful today and sellers may want to hold off for now.

Soybeans: Harvest Pressures Next Week and Fund Selling This Week; Oversold?

by on September 23, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Outside market forces remain weak as hedge funds from around the world seem to be exiting the “commodities” play with a focus on the deflationary aspects of actions in Europe and the US. Fund traders were active sellers yesterday to drive the market sharply lower and the selling continued overnight to drive November soybeans down to the lowest level since March 16th. November soybeans are now down as much as $2.15 in just 16 trading sessions or 14.7% off of the highs. Sharp losses in Asian and European stock markets plus a collapse in energy and metal markets sparked an aggressive long liquidation selling trend from speculators. Poor news for China manufacturing seemed to spark the global economic fears yesterday after traders saw little help from US monetary policy. The USDA confirmed a daily sale of 180,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China yesterday and the weekly sales came in about as expected at 404,400 metric tonnes. This pushed cumulative sales to 39.6% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 36.4%. Sales of 458,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Meal sales were better than expected showing cancellations of 21,200 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 197,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 175,900. Sales of 120,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Oil sales were below expectations showing cancellations of 8,400 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 10,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 2,500. India vegetable oil imports for the season beginning November are expected to be near 9 million tonnes due to rising consumption. Imports for the current season as expected near 8.2 to 8.5 million tonnes. November soybeans have lost as much as $1.05 1/2 for the week and short-term technical indicators are showing oversold readings. Speculative long liquidation selling, fears of increased harvest selling pressures ahead plus ideas that China is buying more Brazil than US soybeans during a time frame which is normally US dominated are seen as negative forces.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: While the stocks report next week or the October 12th production report could be supportive news, the short-term focus is on outside market forces and short-term supply does not seem tight enough to offer much of an offset to the liquidation selling trend. November soybean resistance is at 1282 with 1212 as next technical objective.


Soybeans: USDA Report to Set This Week’s Tone

by on September 12, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The results of the USDA crop production and supply/demand report will set the tone for the market today and maybe for much of the week. Traders see US soybean production near 3.025 billion bushels from 3.056 billion last month and 3.329 billion last year. Yield is expected near 41 from 41.4 bu/acre last month and new crop ending stocks at 152 million bushels from 155 million last month and 230 million for the season which just ended. November soybeans closed 8 1/2 cents higher on the session Friday but down 19 cents for the shortened week. More talk of the potential for frost in the northern Corn Belt this week helped to support the market but this morning traders see potential frost just in the far northern sections of the plains and Midwest while others see potential damage to soybeans for Northern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and to northern Ohio later this week. Weakness in outside market forces on growing concerns for European debt issues helped to limit the buying support on Friday and may help pressure the market today; depending on the results of the USDA reports. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 444,900 metric tonnes which was near trade expectations. As of September 1st, cumulative soybean sales stand at 37.6% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 32.2%. Sales of 455,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. However, private exporters reported the cancellation of 240,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China. Meal sales came in showing cancellations of 24,500 metric tonnes for old crop and 172,500 for new crop for a total of 148,000 which was near the high end of expectations. Net oil sales came in at 5,900 tonnes, all for new crop. The Commitments of Traders reports as of September 6th showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 180,210 contracts, a decrease of 3,759 contracts for the week. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 173,961 contracts, down 2,779. The selling trend is seen as a short-term negative force. For meal, Non-Commercial traders were net long 57,564 contracts, an increase of 9,824 contracts for the week. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 75,535 contracts, up 7,957. The aggressive buying trend from speculators is seen as a short-term positive force. For oil, Non-Commercial traders were net long 43,885 contracts, an increase of 948. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 54,140 contracts, up 1,817. China confirmed imports of soybeans in August at 4.51 million tonnes, down 5% from last year and down 16% from July. For the year, imports reached 33.58 million tonnes, down 5.5% from the previous year.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: On bullish news, a move over 1143 1/4 resistance should be enough to confirm a resumption of the uptrend with 1486 3/4 as next target. On bearish news, support emerges at 1395 and 1373 1/2.

Soybeans: Weak Dollar, Record High Gold and Tighter Corn Market Support

by on August 3, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: A general perception that the USDA may lower soybean yield in next week’s USDA production and supply/demand report and the surge higher in corn values helped drive the market sharply higher yesterday. Traders continue to believe that the heat in July stressed soybean crops and could lower yield but the market was trading at the lowest level since July 12th early yesterday on the weather outlook which suggests that crops will see significant rain and more normal temperatures for the next few weeks. As a result, yield potential could improve as mid-August weather is most critical to soybeans. July weather may have permanently lowered yield potential for corn and a tighter corn supply has implications for meal prices and demand and as a result, soybeans followed corn higher yesterday. Some early trade estimates for yield are showing a drop of near 1 bushel/acre from the current USDA estimate of 43.4 bu/acre. If so, and demand numbers are left unchanged, ending stocks for the 2011/12 season would slip to just 100 million bushels and a stocks/usage of 3.1%. This would be the lowest stocks since 1972 and the lowest stocks/usage on record (back to 1964). November soybeans closed sharply higher on the session yesterday and closed above the range of the past few sessions. The market followed the weather news lower early in the day and followed the corn market higher late in the day. Deteriorating crop conditions for the past week helped support but active selling from fund traders contributed to a sharply lower trade into the mid-session. Talk that rains should ease crop stress into the weekend plus talk that the 6-10 day and 11-15 day models show periods of above normal precipitation helped to pressure. Temperatures are also expected to decline to more normal levels in the next two weeks as the heat moves to the south and the west. Private exporters reported to the USDA the cancellation of 550,000 tonnes of US soybean exports to China for the 2010/11 season and reported export sales of 550,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2011/12 season.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Record high gold prices and a weaker US dollar plus growing concerns for a tighter corn market this year has helped support. With smaller planted area in China this year and China vegoil makers now in a position to raise prices, China demand could shift from the sluggish pace of the past several months to a more robust pace ahead. It seems to be too early to indicate a drop in US yield; especially with the bearish weather forecast but with continued stress on crops in the south, the market is at risk of tightness ahead.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The technical action improved dramatically yesterday as the market was able to hold key support at 1348 1/2 and the close back over 1363 1/2 (now support) suggests another test of the highs and upside targets of 1431 3/4 and 1459 for November soybeans. However it will take a close above 1380 1/2 to turn the minor trend back up. December meal held key support yesterday and another close higher today suggests an upside target of 377.80. December oil support is at 57.42 with 60.13 as upside target.

Soybeans: Look for Market To Build Weather Premium This Week

by on July 19, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The market is seeing buying support overnight from threatening weather forecasts for much of the Midwest and delta growing areas and from a more positive tilt to outside market forces. Weather becomes more critical for soybean yield potential into early August but crop conditions are already deteriorating and traders see further deterioration this coming week. Traders expected to see crop conditions drop about 1% to in the good to excellent category for the weekly update. However, the report showed that 64% of the crop is now rated good/excellent compared to 66% last week and 67% last year. Argentina food and animal health inspectors are on strike this week which could disrupt exports of grains. This should not be a major factor unless the strike is extended beyond this week. November soybeans closed just slightly lower on the session yesterday and closed well up from the early lows. Weather concerns persist and there was talk that the weather models were a little drier and hotter which helped support. Yield uncertainties persist to help support and traders see harsh weather for this week for the Midwest and the delta as supportive. Weekly export inspections came in 3.7 million bushels which was below expectations. Inspections need to average 12.2 million bushels per week for the rest of the season to reach the USDA projection. The USDA supply/demand outlook is already tight and any reductions in the yield outlook could have a significant impact on the price outlook. The USDA currently projects ending stocks for the 2011/12 season at just 175 million bushels which is 5.3% of usage. If average yield drops 1 bushel per acre to 42.4, ending stocks slip to 100 million or 3.1% of usage. If we see a 2 bushel drop to 41.4 million, ending stocks slip to just 26 million, less than 1% of usage.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The hot and mostly dry outlook for the next several days with relief in the form of good rains expected for just the northern sections of the corn belt this week and to the east next week appears threatening enough to help support additional weather premium for the key reproductive period of the crop into August. Look for the market to build weather premium this week.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Support for November soybeans comes in at 1391 and 1380 with 1411 1/4 and 1450 3/4 as next upside targets. December soyoil support is at 57.99 and 57.47 with 58.71 and 60.22 as next resistance.

Soybeans: Follow Wheat Down or Corn Up?

by on June 22, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: A sluggish world demand tone and weakness in wheat are negative forces today as the market gave back a good portion of yesterday’s gains in overnight action. Traders see the market in need of warmer and drier weather and a hot and dry outlook into the 4th of July weekend is bringing mixed reviews. Palm oil production is expected to climb in the second half of 2011 and stocks are expected to rise above the 16-month high of 1.92 million tonnes posted last month. Indonesia will raise export taxes in July which is expected to boost exports from Indonesia for the remainder of this month and slow exports from Malaysia. Feed companies in China consumed 35 million tonnes of meal last year which was up 13% from 2009. Higher pork prices this year are expected to encourage increased feed usage for the coming year and with high corn prices, meal demand should remain strong. The market managed to recover from a mid-session set-back yesterday to close moderately higher on the session. New crop found some support from a little more threatening weather for early July and strength in corn and the US stock market also helped. The outlook for a hot and dry ridge to move into the western Corn Belt for the 4th of July weekend plus weakness in the US dollar and strength in other commodity markets and equity markets helped support the higher trade early in the session. Talk of the oversold condition of the market after a 7-session break of 86 1/2 cents into Friday’s lows added to the positive tone. The weekly crop updates did not bring any surprises with 94% of the crop planted as of Sunday and 82% of the crop emerged from 86% as the 5-year average. The crop is rated 68% in good to excellent condition which was up 1% from last week and unchanged from the 10-year average. A positive tone to edible oil prices due to higher palm futures and continued talk of tighter supply from Europe due to spring drought and damage to the Canadian crop due to too much rain were seen as factors to support soybean oil. However, the sharp break in palm oil overnight helped push July soybean oil under yesterday’s lows in overnight action.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The soybean market seems undecided on whether to follow wheat lower or corn higher. The weather outlook is seen as bearish by some traders and this may be the case if there is just a few days of hot and dry weather but the models suggests a strong high pressure ridge with 95-100 degrees across a good portion of the corn belt in the 6-10 and 11-15 day forecast models. An extended ridge pattern should be considered bullish as corn damage will be possible if the heat lasts into July. The market needs a high yield this year to avoid significant tightness and the forecast opens the door for the market to begin to build a weather premium.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The technical action is weak and November soybeans close in support will need to hold at 1339 3/4 or the market looks vulnerable to another swing down to the 1320 level. Look for support to hold on a closing basis. A move over 1358 1/2 and especially 1367 3/4 will put the market back on a bull track with 1433 3/4 as next upside target.

Soybeans: Limited Old Crop Upside with Higher Ending Stocks Expected

by on June 2, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Fund trader buying emerged to support a strong recovery yesterday and the market inched higher in overnight trade. While the US weather looks favorable for planting, adverse weather for Canada and to some extent China has traders uncomfortable in assuming a strong oilseed crop this season. The USDA attache in China believes that soybean imports for the 2011/12 season will reach 58 million tonnes from 54.5 million this year. Production is expected to slip to 14.4 million tonnes from 15.2 million this season. Private traders still see the 54.5 million tonnes this year as too high and there is talk that many traders are adjusting old crop ending stocks higher for the June supply/demand report next week. Brazil meal exports reached 1.5 million tonnes for May from 1.2 million in April and from 1.4 million last year. Oil exports reached 165,000 tonnes from 59,000 April and 102,000 last year. A late spurt of buying from fund traders helped support solid gains yesterday and the highest close for November soybeans since April 25th. Weakness in outside market forces and in wheat helped to pressure the market early as traders see better weather for planting in the US and some significant rains into the weekend for Europe as negative forces. However, the slow plantings pace for soybeans and a bounce in corn and meal helped support the market to trade higher. A private firm released a US soybean planted acreage estimate of just 74.89 million acres and this might have helped support the market late in the day. If we plug in this estimate to the supply/demand table and leave the rest of the USDA numbers from May unchanged, US ending stocks come in at 87 million bushels as compared with the USDA estimate of 160 million for the 2011/12 season. Planting progress last week was lower than expected at just 51% complete compared to 71% last year. Only 7% of the Ohio crop is planted and just 29% is planted in North Dakota but Iowa is already 87% complete. Ideas that fund traders may emerge as buyers of commodity markets during early June also helped to provide some support.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The weather news was a short-term negative force for grains yesterday but the market shrugged off this news and closed strong. After another 6-8 days of dry and sometimes hot weather in the Midwest, the extended forecast models suggest a shift back toward more seasonal weather. The upside for old crop looks limited by expectations for higher old crop ending stocks in next week’s report.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: November soybean short-term support moves up to 1365 1/2 and then 1349 1/4 with 1393 1/2 and 1458 1/2 as next objectives. December soybean oil is showing good resistance near 60.08 but support at 59.27. Additional resistance is at 60.51.

Soybeans: New Crop Looks to Work Higher

by on May 10, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: A positive tone from the wheat market and firm cash basis levels for soybeans and meal plus expectations for the USDA to keep the balance sheets tight for the supply/demand update in the morning has helped the market recover off of Friday’s lows. China imported 3.88 million tonnes of soybeans in April was up 10.5% from the previous month but still down 7.4% from last year. Total imports for the first four months of the year reached 14.84 million tonnes, down 2.6% from last year’s pace. China sold 89,719 tonnes of rapeseed from state reserves overnight. China edible oil imports for April were just 490,000 tonnes, down 12.5% from last year. India is tendering for 1,500 tonnes of soybean oil. In the US, producer plantings reached 7% complete as of Sunday which was as expected but still down from 28% last year and a 10-year average of 19%. The market closed a bit higher on the session yesterday with solid gains seen for soybean oil but sluggish trade in meal helped cause the market to set-back from the early highs to see July soybeans close 7 cents off of the highs. The surge higher in wheat prices and less negative influence from outside market forces are factors which helped support. Weekly export inspections came in at just 6.0 million bushels which was well below trade expectations and down from 12.7 million bushels needed as an average each week to reach the current USDA projection. There is talk that the USDA could lower their export projection for the supply/demand report this week which would push up ending stocks and help ease tightness concerns. Traders see old crop ending stocks near 155 million bushels from 140 million last month. For the first look at the 2011/12 season, traders see ending stocks near 170 million bushels. Rain in the Canadian Prairies for the first few days of this week could slow planting progress for canola.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: We see the USDA lowering both export and crush slightly for the report which could result in ending stocks for the 2010/11 season to increase to 165 million bushels from 140 million last month. For the new crop, we see trend yield near 43.4 and ending stocks near 155 million. July soybean support comes in at 1327 3/4 and 1322 1/4 with 1354 1/2 and 1376 1/4 as resistance. November support is at 1320 with 1349 1/4 and 1363 3/4 as resistance.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: July soybean oil support is at 55.82 with 57.20 and 57.92 resistance.  November soybeans held support last week and may be in a position to work higher in the next few weeks as the new crop outlook appears supportive for now.

Soybeans: Nov Needs to Move Up To Secure More Acres

by on April 1, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The market saw a minor set-back overnight with talk of the overbought condition, some concerns with China tightening measures again over the weekend and talk of weak crushing margins in China helping to pressure. While there is still some harvest delays in northern Brazil, a drier trend in southern Brazil and Argentina could keep the harvest active and soybeans and products flowing on the world market.

With a much tighter than expected stocks report for March 1st, and a tighter than normal stocks for on-farm storage, traders will monitor demand factors closely over the near-term. In addition, US and China soybean plantings look to come in lower than last year and it appears that the US yield will need to be up near last years high level or higher in order to avoid significant tightness for the coming year.

The USDA report news yesterday was enough to support the market to a sharply higher close even with continued concerns for more active movement of South American supply onto the world market and a weaker demand tone out of China recently. May soybeans ran up to the 60 cent limit early in the day but traded well off the highs for much of the session. March 1st stocks were pegged at 1.249 billion bushels, about 46 million bushels below trade expectations. Soybean planted acreage was pegged at 76.609 million acres or about 360,000 acres below trade expectations. This is 791,000 acres below last year. If we plug in the new plantings estimate and use a trendline yield of 43.4 bu/acre, ending stocks for the 2011/12 season come in at just 105 million bushels with a stocks/usage of 3.2%, a record low. November soybeans managed to push above the February highs on the early rally and to the highest level since July of 2008.

Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 144,800 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 113,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 257,800. Sales were considered well below expectations. Cumulative soybean sales stand at 93.3% of the USDA forecast for the season versus a 5 year average of 86.1% sold for this time of the year. Old crop sales of 126,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Meal sales came in at 86,500 tonnes which was also below trade expectations. Sales of 79,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Oil sales came in at 14,100 metric tonnes which was near the high end of expectations.

Cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 83.6% of the USDA forecast for 2010/2011 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 54.4%. Sales of 8,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Traders sense that it will be necessary for soybean values to outpace corn values if there is a chance to pull some acres away from corn to push soybean plantings to a higher level. This would suggest that November soybeans may remain in an uptrend and look set for a run at the next target of 1465. Some sluggish short-term demand factors from China may keep old crop trade choppy for now but surging corn values might help boost meal demand soon.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: For old crop May soybeans, look for some consolidation with key support at 1392 and resistance at 1447. Eventually, strength in new crop and steadier demand should support an upside break-out and 1542 as next objective. December oil key support is at 58.35 with 64.16 as a longer-term objective.

Soybeans: Need Big Planted Acreage to Avoid Tightness

by on March 29, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Aggravating showers in Brazil and positioning ahead of key USDA reports has helped hold the market in a consolidation for the past several sessions. Brazil continues to struggle to get the bumper and thought to be record size crop out of the ground but the harvest is nearing 60% complete. May soybeans experienced an outside day down yesterday and closed near the lows of the session but losses on the day were about half of the corn market. Weakness in corn helped spark long liquidation across the grain floor. Volume was said to be light. The head of Paraguay’s largest soybean producing group believes the country may produce a record crop of near 8 million tonnes from 7.48 as an early estimate. A continued wet weather forecast in parts of northern Brazil helped to support the market early with talk of declining quality and quantity for the late harvested crop. The wet weather looks to continue for another week or more in northern Brazil and southern Brazil looks wet for the next few days with some hefty rain totals possible which will slow harvest. China soybean futures were up on Monday and again overnight which helped to provide some underlying support. Poor crush margins in the US combined with talk of hefty meal stocks has traders talking about a slowing crushing pace. Positioning ahead of the USDA Planted Acreage and stocks reports for Thursday morning is helping to support with more talk of lower plantings as a factor supporting November soybeans. Weekly export inspections came in at 29.53 million bushels which was the high end of expectations. Shipments of 13.7 million bushels are needed each week to reach the USDA projection. China sold 91,586 tonnes of rapeseed oil from their reserves at auction overnight which was seen as stronger demand than last week as most of the oil offered was moved. Traders see March 1st stocks for soybeans near 1.3 billion bushels for the report on Thursday as compared with 1.27 billion bushels last year. Traders see planted acreage near 76.9 million acres as compared with 77.4 million last year and 78 million from the USDA Outlook Forum estimates from last month. Estimates are as high as 78.5 million and as low as 75 million. If producers plant just 75 million acres and usage comes in at 3.34 billion bushels, down from 3.355 billion this year, ending stocks would come in at just 22 million bushels. At 78 million, ending stocks come in at 150 million bushels using trend yield of 43.2 bu/acre. Ending stocks are projected at a tight 140 million bushels for this season.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The market will need to see a higher than expected planted acreage forecast this week in order to avoid an extremely tight outlook into next year. Demand has been slow with a noticeable decline in activity out of China as they continue to fight inflation. Any set-backs in November soybeans look like buying opportunities.

← Older posts