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CORN: Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 413,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 413,100. As of October 23, cumulative corn sales stand at 32.8% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 36.1%. Sales of 764,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
SOYBEANS: Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 1,457,300 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 1,457,300. As of October 23, cumulative soybean sales stand at 49.9% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 45.9%. Sales of 321,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
SOY MEAL: Net meal sales came in at 130,200 metric tonnes for the current marketing year. Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 30.0% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 33.6%. Sales of 112,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
SOYOIL: Cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 16.0% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 20.8%. Sales of 18,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
WHEAT: Net weekly export sales for wheat, came in at 460,400 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 36,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 496,400. As of October 23, cumulative wheat sales stand at 69.2% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 58.6%. Sales of 266,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
COTTON: Net weekly export sales for cotton, came in at 57,100 running bales for the current marketing year and 500 for the next marketing year for a total of 57,600. As of October 23, cumulative cotton sales stand at 53.4% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 44.2%. Sales of 141,000 running bales are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
BEEF: Weekly US beef export sales for the week ending October 30 came in at 8,600 metric tonnes making it 488,400 metric tonnes for the year. This compares to year ago weekly sales of 9,800 metric tonnes and 375,100 for the year. Before Mad Cow (2003) cumulative sales as of this week were 728,300 metric tonnes.
Cattle: Yesterday’s Reversal Could Attract Increased Technical Buying
by Terry Roggensack on August 26, 2011
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The market seems to have absorbed the weaker cash market news this week and traders may begin to consider supply and demand forces for September and beyond. Supply is likely to gradually decline into early next year but the hefty upfront supply of feedlot cattle has traders expecting larger production. Weights are still high and demand factors remain negative. Consumer sentiment readings are low and pork supply is clearly on the rise. This has traders questioning the ability of market to absorb near-term supply with current high beef prices. October cattle closed slightly higher on the session yesterday after first seeing prices erode to the lowest level since June 16th. With cash cattle down to $112.50-$113.00 this week and fears that beef prices might slide next week, sellers turned a bit more active with further weakness in gold and the US stock market early yesterday. However, the selling slowed as gold and then grains recovered from early lows. Higher trade in hogs and the outlook for a continued decline in poultry production into the 4th quarter were also seen as factors to provide some support to help the market recover from the early losses. Weekly U.S. beef export sales for the week ending August 18th came in at 15,600 metric tonnes, compared with the prior 4-week average of 15,775. Cumulative sales for 2011 have reached 610,300 metric tonnes, up 36.0% from last year’s pace. The estimated cattle slaughter came in at 129,000 head yesterday. This brings the total for the week so far to 510,000 head, unchanged from last week at this time but down from 517,000 a year ago. Boxed beef cutout values were up 53 cents at mid-session yesterday and closed 17 cents higher at $187.79. This was up from $186.60 the prior week. This is the highest it has been since April 20th, when it was trading at $188.89. Average dressed steer weights for the week ending August 13th came in at 846 pounds, unchanged from 846 the previous week but still up from 840 pounds last year. It is still surprising that weights have remained much higher than last year for much of the year despite high corn prices.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: April cattle pushed down to the lowest level since July 1st and closed higher on the day. The reversal could attract increased technical buying. Beef supply will tighten considerably into early 2012.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: October cattle resistance is at 114.85, with support at 111.35. Ideally, a break to 121.42 for April cattle looks like a good buying opportunity but the turn up yesterday could be a sign of a near-term low. Longer-term, April may test 130.