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OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Asian equity markets were generally stronger this morning, off mostly up beat data flows. However, European equities were mixed to slightly weaker overnight off some softer than expected guidance from a couple multinational heavyweights. In the early action today, US equities were showing mixed action, and it would appear that the US market is looking for some guidance from scheduled data or perhaps from a series of Fed speeches later today. From the US scheduled data front, the markets will be presented with a private layoff report early on and that will be followed by weekly claims figures, which are expected to post a minor decline. While the market will also see a US Productivity reading, the trade doesn’t think that today’s Productivity readings are likely to have a noted impact on Fed policy. It is also possible that a series of Fed speeches/testimony could have an impact on precious metals and physical commodity markets during the session today. A portion of the trade thinks the Fed will hint at more assistance for the US economy.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: At least to start today, the gold market appears to lack a definitive opinion, even though Asian stocks were higher and the S&P seemed to have somewhat positive views toward the potential track of the European economy. In fact, S&P suggested that the odds were tilted in favor of a mild European recession/slow recovery and that is certainly a better proposition than the hard landing or worse fears that dominated the European landscape off and on for the last 12 months. Gold might have been partially undermined by predictions of a slight decline in Indian gold imports for the month of January versus year ago levels, especially after the Indian gold price peg was lifted earlier this week. However, gold reportedly saw some improved demand in Asia overnight but that might have been catch up action to the gains forged in the US Wednesday gold trade. Some traders think the $1,750 level has become a pivot point in the April gold contract, but others think gold will need to see more gains in the Euro and or gains in US equities today just to put the bull camp in definitive control of gold prices. It would seem like gold prices have continued to mostly track physical commodity market fundamentals and therefore the claims figures today might serve to set the tone of prices for the Thursday morning US trade. Comex Gold Stocks were 11.493 million ounces down 964 ounces. Gold stocks have declined in 12 of the last 20 days.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The March silver contract continued to consolidate in the overnight action and to the bear camp that hints at a loss of momentum. However, the bull camp might spin the consolidation action into a positive by suggesting the market is simply building a base above $33.00. Like gold, silver continues to track classic physical commodity market fundamentals and that means the bulls need a stronger Euro and something positive from US scheduled data and or from the US Fed. However, in the early action today silver seems to be lagging relative to gold and platinum prices and that might embolden some in the bear camp. In fact, silver seems to be tracking closely with copper and that could suggest the silver trade might be looking for direction from US claims and from the US equity markets. Some silver bulls are hopeful that dialogue from various Fed sources today will serve to provide some fresh lift to silver prices. Comex Silver Stocks were 128.983 million ounces up 312,407 ounces. Silver stocks have increased 14 of the last 20 days.

PLATINUM: The platinum market has also shown some consolidation action of late but prices enter the Thursday US trade within close proximity to this week’s highs. It would also seem like platinum is tracking with gold instead of silver and copper and that might mean platinum could be less dependant on the scheduled data than some might have expected. Platinum might be garnering some support from news that labor conflict has continued at Impala, with that company reportedly firing up to 13,000 workers who participated in what was ruled to be an illegal strike action. A critical pivot point might be seen in April platinum at $1,616 but the early action seems to hint at a possible return to the highest levels since November 15th on the charts.

This content originated from - The Hightower Report.

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: While equity markets in Asia and Europe were generally higher during overnight trading, early indications are that US equity markets will open with substantial gains later on this morning. The US Dollar is sharply lower against most of the major currencies this morning. An Italian newspaper is reporting that Italy may receive a 600 billion Euro loan from the IMF if their debt problems get worse, although the IMF later denied that report. Belgium has passed a new austerity budget and may be closing in on forming a new government. A major credit rating agency warned that the current debt crisis could threaten the sovereign debt ratings of all Euro zone nations. The only major US economic number to be released this morning will be October New Home Sales at 9:00 AM.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: With an initial risk on vibe in place, precious metals and a host of physical commodities are starting off the week on a very positive track. In addition to sharp overnight gains in equities, noted strength in the Euro and calls for a wave of global stimulus, the bull camp in gold might be embracing a number of potentially bullish themes. However, the back bone of the bullish vibe today seems to be hope that the IMF might be poised to help Italy with as much as 600 billion Euros and that would certainly seem to be a large enough backstop to quell debt fears from Italy. With the reversal of last week’s vulnerable stance in gold, it is also possible that gold is seeing some classic short covering buying interest this morning. With the rise this morning, December gold has reached up to the highest level since November 21st and that might be the result of a measure of short covering. However, given the action in equities and the broad based price gains being seen in a number of physical commodity markets this morning, there might also be some justification for fresh outright buying of gold. With the gains starting in Asia and the Asian trade pointing to hope for Italian debt relief, commentary from the IMF might be critical for gold this week. It is also possible that part of gold’s gains today are the result of OECD calls for global stimulus, as several countries including the Euro zone, might be poised to reduce rates in an effort to cushion the world economy against Euro zone affairs. Others have even suggested that the US and UK need to launch additional QE measures as austerity in the UK and forced spending cuts in the US are expected to be a check on future growth rates. Some gold players might be buying gold off hopes that this Friday’s US Non Farm payroll reading will contribute to the risk on view. News that a major gold producer saw some reduced output probably isn’t contributing significantly to the bullish vibe this morning.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: While the gold market has forged a noted upside breakout overnight, December silver as of this writing wasn’t able to rise above the Friday highs. However, a broad based physical commodity market rally and significant gains in equities have fostered a favorable environment to start today and December silver has forged an early gain in excess of $1.00 an ounce. Some players even suggest that massive voter turn out in the Egyptian election is contributing to the optimism today. With a weaker dollar and hopes for another “European Plan” to contain the debt contagion, silver is seeing a number of optimistic tracks in the headlines this morning. However, for December silver to catch a definitive wave of technical short covering buying, might require a rise back above last week’s highs around the $33.04 level. In the near term, calls for global stimulus from the OECD and ideas that the IMF could ride to the rescue, have calmed frayed nerves and given the risk on crowd a temporary but suspect edge. The ultra bulls in silver might also suggest that silver is drawing some buying interest from hopes of a decent gain in US Non Farm payrolls at the end of this week.

PLATINUM: Platinum is catching some lift from the strong gains in gold prices overnight. However, gold seems to have caught a lot of initial support from favorable Asian hopes for the Euro zone. A weaker dollar and sharply higher equities also gives the platinum bulls some hope this morning. With January platinum to the lows Friday, sitting as much as $67 an ounce below last week’s highs, it is possible that a portion of today’s initial rise is indeed technical short covering buying. However, with calls for global stimulus from the OECD overnight, a bullish tilt toward the Euro zone situation and very positive US holiday sales talk, platinum is seeing a very favorable physical commodity market environment to start the new trading week. Initial support in January platinum is seen down at $1,558 and there might not be much in the way of resistance until the quasi double top of $1,574.

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Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Equity markets in Asia and Europe were weaker during overnight trading. Early indications are that US equity markets will open with moderate losses later on today. The US Dollar was stronger against most of the major currencies this morning but posting a loss versus the Yen. Greece passed a new austerity budget this morning, which was unable to reach their deficit targets. The “official” Chinese PMI index during September was 51.2, slightly below expectations but well above the critical 50 level. The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of Japanese economic conditions during the third quarter of 2011 was plus 2, in-line with expectations and a move back into positive territory. A private survey of German manufacturing during September was 50.3, higher than market expectations. A private survey of UK manufacturing during September was 51.1, was higher than market forecasts. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include August Construction Spending as well as a private survey of US manufacturing at 9:00 AM. In addition, Fed Regional President Lacker will give a speech after the session.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: With equities generally lower, the dollar higher and gold prices seeing a strong early bid to start the new month and quarter, one gets the sense that gold might have shifted back into a flight to quality mode again. The ultimate test of the focus of the gold trade will be the gold markets reaction to scheduled US data later this morning. However, some traders think that gold could be set to get enough lift off the ongoing fear of a Greece breakdown and that US scheduled data might be simply discounted. On the other hand, estimates for the US ISM readings aren’t expecting a definitively strong ISM manufacturing result this morning and that could leave the focus of the trade in the gold market on international events. Overnight the press reported higher Indian gold price action, but the trade supposedly saw some physical buyers balk at the higher gold price level. A strong Indian currency should deflect some of the higher flat price of gold to Indian buyers, but the ebb and flow of European debt problems looks to garner the most attention going forward. Despite seeing a reduction in net longs held by the Non Commercial and non reportable camps in the most recent positioning reports, the gold market has managed some gains this morning and for some bulls that might be a noted signal of a possible return to a classically bullish environment. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of September 27th for Gold showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 158,754 contracts, a decrease of 44,278 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 199,751 contracts, a decrease of 52,037 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 40,998 contracts, a decrease of 7,757 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 199,752 contracts. This represents a decrease of 52,035 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. Comex Gold Stocks were 11.223 million ounces down 42,906 ounces. Stocks have declined 12 of the last 20 days. Comex Gold stocks are at the lowest in the past 10 readings.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Unlike the gold market, December silver was unable to forge a quasi upside breakout on the charts this morning. However, December silver is trading within relatively close proximity to last week’s late highs. Silver might be somewhat held back by its physical commodity market standing today, but seeing early gains of almost $1.00 an ounce would seem to suggest that even silver is garnering some spillover flight to quality buying interest. In other words, weaker Copper and platinum prices probably held back silver prices this morning, especially with a noted brokerage firm overnight lowering its price targets for silver, for the coming month and quarter. At least in the near term, silver is likely to take more direction from the gold market and perhaps silver is poised to track inversely with the equity markets, in the face of renewed Greece default fears. Like gold, silver also saw a decline in the speculative positioning in weekly COT report and to some that might be a bearish signal, but to others that is old or backward looking information. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of September 27th for Silver showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 19,894 contracts, a decrease of 8,908 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 30,248 contracts, a decrease of 18,522 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 10,354 contracts, a decrease of 9,615 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 30,248 contracts. This represents a decrease of 18,523 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. Comex Silver Stocks were 106.742 million ounces down 482,339 ounces. Stocks have increased 13 of the last 20 days.

PLATINUM: The platinum and copper markets appear to be tracking their physical commodity market standing this morning, despite what appears to be renewed flight to quality strength in gold and silver prices. Therefore, platinum probably looks to take more direction from US scheduled data than other portions of the precious metals complex. Some bull players might be discouraged by the slight decline in speculative longs in platinum in the COT report, while others might simply discount that news as old news. Platinum might have seen some fundamental support from favorable Japanese auto sales figures overnight and the US platinum trade today might garner some support from any improvement in US domestic auto sales figures later today. However, even if US auto sales are positive, they might be lost in the focus toward the Euro zone and the platinum market might be destined to trade in sync with the US equity markets. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of September 27th for Platinum showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 20,785 contracts, a decrease of 3,438 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 24,514 contracts, a decrease of 6,039 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 3,729 contracts, a decrease of 2,601 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 24,514 contracts. This represents a decrease of 6,039 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. Extremely critical support in January platinum contract is seen at $1,510.30 and then again down at $1,504.40.

This content originated from - The Hightower Report.

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: While equity markets in Asia and Europe were generally stronger during overnight trading, early indications are that US equity markets will open with substantial gains later on today. The US Dollar is weaker against most of the major currencies this morning. The Spanish Prime Minister stated that there was no current proposal to expand the Euro zone bailout fund to 2 trillion Euros but that didn’t seem to dent optimism in many markets. The Greek Prime Minister said that he would “guarantee” that his nation would meet all commitments to receive further bailout funds from the IMF, EU and ECB. A private survey of German Consumer Sentiment during September was 5.2, higher than market expectations. Euro zone money growth during August was 2.8%, higher than forecasts. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include a private survey of US Home Sales at 8:00, a private survey of US Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM, and private surveys of store sales released during the session. In addition, Fed Regional Presidents Lockhart and Fisher will give speeches during the session.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: In addition to a more upbeat attitude toward the Greek/EU debt situation, the gold market overnight also saw favorable Indian gold demand news from the World Gold Council overnight. Apparently the WGC thinks that Indian demand for gold is set to firm in the wake of a good monsoon season and also because of increased seasonal interest. Not surprisingly, the Indian gold trade was higher overnight, but that move might have simply been the result of the “risk-on” mentality and a wave of higher price action in many physical commodity markets. Record exchange volume in some gold instruments yesterday, might give the recent bounce even more technical credibility, but many traders think the direction of gold is still tightly wound up in the direction of the equity markets. It does seem as if dialogue from the Greek Finance Minister and German dialogue on the debt subject overnight have contributed to a minor wave of optimism on the current EU debt crisis standing. In looking forward, the gold market is likely to see some impact from a rather active slate of US economic readings today, as the gold bulls seem to need favorable economic vibes to keep the sellers at bay. The gold market will probably keep a close eye on the odds of acceptance of the latest ECB plan in voting by member countries. Comex Gold Stocks were 11.367 million ounces up 5,837 ounces.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Like gold, the silver market has also managed a rather impressive recovery attempt overnight, with the December contract forging a climb above the $32.50 level. Silver seems to have established a tight positive correlation with the equity markets, which seem to be signaling a continuation of “risk-on” from the prior trading session. At least to start, a large measure of the optimism in the markets this morning, seems to be the result of hopes that the EU is coming together on a plan to bolster their back up fund. Since the silver market hasn’t paid that much attention to physical supply side developments recently, the silver market probably isn’t deriving that much support from news overnight of a minor silver production shutdown. All things considered, silver and other physical commodity markets appear to be emboldened by hope for calm waters from the Euro zone debt crisis. Given the recent fear of a global recession, the silver and equity markets are also likely to take some direction from a rather active slate of US economic data today. The 200 day moving average in the December silver contract is seen at $36.06 today, while the initial Fibonacci retracement level off the September slide was regained at $32.77 overnight. Comex Silver Stocks were 107.230 million ounces up 1,461,966 ounces and one has to wonder if that rise is the direct result of the steep liquidation in silver prices this month. Comex Silver Stocks are at the highest levels since 12/08/2010. Stocks have increased 12 of the last 20 days. Comex Silver stocks are at their highest levels in the past 10.

PLATINUM: The platinum market is showing the least impressive short covering bounce of the precious metals complex overnight. A normal retracement off the September slide in October platinum would seem to produce a pivot point up at $1,637, but the failure to hold the prior session’s close of $1,546 could be technically damaging for the platinum trade today. However, there is a positive macro economic vibe in place off hopes of progress for the latest EU debt plan and that has rekindled buying interest in physical commodity markets. In short, a risk on mentality is in place and seeing higher equity prices has added to that bias. Initial resistance in October platinum is seen up at $1,602.10 but seeing inflationary comments from noted analyst Jim Kramer overnight, might give the bull camp some added resolve.

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