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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Outside market forces are looking slightly negative today. A weak demand tone for the USDA clashed with short-term positive demand news to helped the market see a strong recovery off of the early lows yesterday. March soybeans were down 53 cents early in the session yesterday but managed to rally 37 1/4 cents off of the early lows to late session highs. The USDA data was mostly bearish across the board but especially for the corn market and a limit-down move in corn helped to drive soybeans sharply lower. US soybean production came in at 3.056 billion bushels, up 10 million from previous estimate. Ending stocks, however, were pegged at 275 million bushels as compared with trade expectations looking for 233 million. Exports were revised lower by 25 million and crush down by 10 million. Without a serious drop in South America production, the USDA was in a position to drop usage and the increase in production and lower usage fell directly to the bottom line. World ending stocks for the 2011/12 season came in at 63.43 million tonnes as compared with 64.54 million last month. December 1st soybean stocks came in at 2.366 billion bushels, up 42 million from trade expectations. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 434,200 tonnes. Sales of 296,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net meal sales came in at 47,600 tonnes which was below trade expectations and compares with sales of 99,000 tonnes needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at just 1,100 metric tonnes which was also lower than expected. As of January 5th, cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 31.7% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 42.0%. Sales of 10,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. On top of the weekly sales, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 414,000 tonnes of US soybeans to unknown destination. The USDA news was negative but traders believe that the market would not be down as much as it was except for the outlook for improving weather in South America in another 8-9 days after heavy rains in the past few days. Traders will be closely monitoring weather forecasts in South America for direction as a return to a hotter and drier condition could cause further production losses while a shift to a wetter pattern would hold down losses. South Korea bought 55,000 tonnes of South America meal. India vegetable oil imports for December totaled 669,000 tonnes, down 22%. China officials want to raise self sufficiency in edible oils with an output target for domestic production at 24.4 million tonnes by 2015 from 20.1 million tonnes this season.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The South America crop conditions improved with the soaking rains this week and there is follow-up rains in the forecast for late in the 6-10 day period. This rain window will be important and could mean the difference between continued weak demand for US soybeans or a jump in demand as buyers shift away from South America if production concerns pick-up.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The technical action is weak. March soybean resistance is at 1191 1/4 with 1174 3/4 and 1158 as support. Look for 1158 to 1191 range for now.

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Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: From April to early October, November soybeans moved from a 5 cent carry to a 12 cent carry and it took only a few days to see the bull spread move back to 5 under. The bull spreads were a feature of the session yesterday as traders see strong cash basis levels and a lack of producer selling during harvest as a signal that the flat price or the spreads may need to move to a higher level to attract selling from producers. With news of the re-stocking activities in China, many traders have adjusted their China total import estimates to near 58 million tonnes from 56.5 million posted in last week’s supply/demand update. In addition to a smaller crop in China, the National Grains and Oils Information Centre in China believes that crushing capacity in China will jump to 125 million tonnes for 2012, up 12.5 million tonnes. As a result, demand could be on the rise. Weaker crush margins in the US and fears of low protein content have supported bull spreads in meal as well. Crush margins have also weakened in China and Europe so some traders see sluggish demand for soybeans in the short-term. November soybeans closed slightly lower on the session yesterday but up sharply from the early lows. The market was down sharply early due to perceived weak data regarding the China economy and poor economic news from Europe. With gold, silver and energy markets down sharply, traders expected aggressive selling from fund traders but a recovery in the US stock market helped support a strong recover from the early lows. The soybean harvest is 69% complete compared to 51% last week and 81% last year and traders mentioned harvest pressures as another negative force. However, a lack of producer selling during the active harvest season has helped to provide some support as cash basis levels are improving. Weekly export inspections came in at 45 million bushels which was well above trade expectations and compares with 28.1 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. The solid recovery in the stock market and in energy markets plus a move higher on the day for corn were seen as the primary reasons for the strong close.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The lack of producer selling suggest higher trade just ahead in order to get more soybeans in commercial hands. This mostly provides underlying support as basis and spreads could also invoke new selling from producers.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Look for a rally short-term but we remain concerned with outside forces so consider smaller objectives and tighter risks on traders in the short-term.

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The results of the USDA crop production and supply/demand report will set the tone for the market today and maybe for much of the week. Traders see US soybean production near 3.025 billion bushels from 3.056 billion last month and 3.329 billion last year. Yield is expected near 41 from 41.4 bu/acre last month and new crop ending stocks at 152 million bushels from 155 million last month and 230 million for the season which just ended. November soybeans closed 8 1/2 cents higher on the session Friday but down 19 cents for the shortened week. More talk of the potential for frost in the northern Corn Belt this week helped to support the market but this morning traders see potential frost just in the far northern sections of the plains and Midwest while others see potential damage to soybeans for Northern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and to northern Ohio later this week. Weakness in outside market forces on growing concerns for European debt issues helped to limit the buying support on Friday and may help pressure the market today; depending on the results of the USDA reports. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 444,900 metric tonnes which was near trade expectations. As of September 1st, cumulative soybean sales stand at 37.6% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 32.2%. Sales of 455,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. However, private exporters reported the cancellation of 240,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China. Meal sales came in showing cancellations of 24,500 metric tonnes for old crop and 172,500 for new crop for a total of 148,000 which was near the high end of expectations. Net oil sales came in at 5,900 tonnes, all for new crop. The Commitments of Traders reports as of September 6th showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 180,210 contracts, a decrease of 3,759 contracts for the week. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 173,961 contracts, down 2,779. The selling trend is seen as a short-term negative force. For meal, Non-Commercial traders were net long 57,564 contracts, an increase of 9,824 contracts for the week. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 75,535 contracts, up 7,957. The aggressive buying trend from speculators is seen as a short-term positive force. For oil, Non-Commercial traders were net long 43,885 contracts, an increase of 948. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 54,140 contracts, up 1,817. China confirmed imports of soybeans in August at 4.51 million tonnes, down 5% from last year and down 16% from July. For the year, imports reached 33.58 million tonnes, down 5.5% from the previous year.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: On bullish news, a move over 1143 1/4 resistance should be enough to confirm a resumption of the uptrend with 1486 3/4 as next target. On bearish news, support emerges at 1395 and 1373 1/2.

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The market saw an impressive upside break-out on Friday and with a positive tilt to outside markets, more buying emerged overnight to support sharply higher trade and a move to the highest level since June for nearby futures. Traders see dryness concerns for central Illinois and southern Minnesota as short-term supply factors which might be causing declining yield estimates from traders. Traders see another 1-2% decline in crop ratings for tonight’s weekly update. The rally overnight was especially impressive given the crop tour results from Friday afternoon. In the annual Pro Farmer crop tour, the average soybean yield estimate came in at 41.8 bu/acre as compared with the USDA estimate from the August report at 41.4. If we plug in this yield estimate and leave all the other numbers unchanged, ending stocks come in at 185 million bushels with a stocks/usage of 5.9%. This is up from the USDA August estimate of 155 million bushels. The tour did note that good rains would be necessary to support the higher yields and this is certainly in question. Rain events look active in the next ten days in the northern Corn Belt and in the southern sections of the Corn Belt and the northern delta but limited rains for the central part of the Midwest could keep crops in dry areas under stress. A sharp set-back in corn production this year might spark better demand for meal and December meal matched the March 31st contract high on Friday and surged to new contract highs this morning. The Commitments of Traders reports as of August 23rd showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 129,790 contracts for soybeans, an increase of 50,535 contracts in just one week. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 164,046 contracts, up 3,470. The aggressive buying trend from fund traders is seen as a positive short-term force. For Meal, Non-Commercial traders were net long 32,442 contracts, an increase of 15,087 contracts for the week. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 49,500 contracts, up 22,737 contracts for the week. For oil, Non-Commercial traders were net long 9,792 contracts, an increase of 11,597 contracts for the week. The shift from a net short to net long position is seen as positive. After some choppy and lower trade early, November soybeans saw a major technical break-out to the upside on Friday and moved sharply higher on the day. Talk that yield could slip below the August USDA report helped to support the solid recovery and rally to higher on the day.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The weather is mixed to slightly positive and traders see even lower yield than the USDA in August as a serious threat. Bullish outside market forces and a return of aggressive fund trader buying in grains is also seen as a supportive force. Trend-following funds increased their net long position by nearly 50,000 contracts to 94,835 for the week ending August 23rd.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Buying support for November soybeans moves up to 1421 1/2 and 1409 1/2, with 1458 and 1498 as next upside objectives.

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Like corn, the soybean market saw a noted increase in fund buying interest yesterday in what seemed to be a reawakening of the physical commodity markets. While the inflationary vibe this morning doesn’t appear to be as significant as the environment yesterday, the combination of residual gains in energy prices, a weaker Dollar and residual weather concerns give the bull camp more ammunition than the bear camp to start today. While rising soybean oil production views served to restrain the gains in the Asia action overnight, those markets also saw talk of increased oil demand overnight. However, the focus in the US soybean trade is likely to return to the adverse planting season weather in the US and perhaps on renewed interest or the lack of follow through buying interest from the funds. Some areas will see some planting activity today and that could continue ahead of the next weather system that is seen developing over the coming 36 hours. While the corn market probably sees Thursday and Friday US weather as very important, the soybean market might be looking ahead to the threat of rain next week, as the critical window for soybean plantings is starting to take on more significance. Export sales for Soybeans are expected to be moderately stronger than last week and overnight the trade saw a 60,000 ton purchase of Brazilian beans by a Taiwanese entity. The soybean oil trade will be watching the weather for a rain threat this weekend that might slow the recent progress in the Canadian rapeseed area.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The July soybean contract comes into the early Thursday US action sitting just above the 100 day moving average of $13.84 1/2. With some rain seen in the coming 36 hours and another wet and cold system projected for early next week, the bull camp looks to retain the edge. So far, short term technical indicators aren’t over wound but one could suggest that the fundamental track is moving to factor in fairly significant overall acre losses and therefore the weather will have to avoid offering up a noted dry window. We get the sense that bullishness on the weather is set to reach a zenith into the Friday close, as temperatures are starting to rise and that might allow for crop work unless rain fall totals remain robust.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: November soybeans managed to rise above the 100 day moving average yesterday and the market sits entrenched above that level in the early Thursday trade. While front month corn and wheat have seen comparatively bigger buying interest off the planting delays, minor rains due into Thursday night and into Friday and also early next week could begin to concern traders of tightening in the November soybean contract supply view. Near term upside targeting in July soybeans is at 14.00 with near term support seen at $13.77. July soybean oil support moves up to 57.26 and 57.30, with the 100 day moving average at 57.89 seen as initial resistance.

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Ideas that there will be some increased planting for Iowa and western Corn Belt producers into early May plus China demand concerns are factors which helped to pressure the market overnight. China crush margins are still weak and some plants have slowed or halted operations. Traders indicate that soybean stocks at China ports have reached 6.6 million tonnes due to recent slow demand and incoming cargoes. Domestic meal basis levels have improved in recent days but this does not appear to be enough to support. Soybean oil demand appears to be slow. The soybean market continues to experience some liquidation pressures due to China tightening concerns, slow import demand from China and increased flow of Argentina new crop soybeans. This helped pressure soybeans yesterday with talk that the recent three-day rally left the market in a slight overbought condition. Big planting expectations from Canada and weakness in the wheat market plus concerns of a shift in the US to more soybeans and less corn plantings helped to pressure the market. Taiwan is tendering for 23,000 tonnes of US corn and 12,000 tonnes of US soybeans. Palm oil was under some pressure overnight from increased supply estimates. Ideas that the rally early this week was overdone, talk of increasing supply from South America and ideas that the US will see more soybeans planted due to slow corn plantings added to the negative tone. Canadian producers intend to plant 19.225 million acres of canola which would be up 14.3% from last year and is up from trade expectations near 18.5 million. This would be a record high if weather allows producers to get the crop planted. Meal basis levels have improved recently and has helped provide some support but not enough to offset weakness in wheat and fund selling seen in soybeans. Keep in mind; the last COT report showed that trend-following fund traders (non-commercial without index funds) were holding a net long position of near 64,000 contracts. The data was as of April 19th when July soybeans closed at 1354. Open interest has declined on the rally since this date and this suggests short-covering, not new buying, is the foundation for the recent recovery bounce.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: There does not appear to be enough short-term demand news to offset speculative selling and the market looks vulnerable to more losses. Eventually, the market may be in a position where November soybeans are undervalued; especially if there is no major shift in acres from corn.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Old crop soybeans may continue to struggle with weak demand and sharp corrective breaks for November soybeans still look like buying opportunities. July soybean short-term selling resistance comes in at 1389 and 1398 3/4 with 1353 as support. Aggressive short-term traders can sell at 1376 1/2 with 1353 objective.

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Continued weakness in the US dollar overnight plus advancing wheat values and weather uncertainty in Argentina has helped support the rally to new highs for the week overnight. Recent rains have helped boost Argentina plantings by 10% in the past week to about 57.2% complete but this is still down 8.3% from last year’s pace and there is little rain in the forecast for the next week. There is a chance of more abundant rains into next weekend but this is too far out for much confidence. There were no bids for the 295,800 tonnes of state owned soybean reserves in China today as buyers saw the offer price too high. This was seen as a positive factor for prices as China appears to be helping to support high prices to the farmer offering soybeans near market-value. In the top producing state of Heilongjiang in the northeast where local stocks of 246,000 tonnes were being offered, only 55,000 tonnes sold. The government will offer 100,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil on December 7th. In the weekly export sales report from the US yesterday, China was a buyer of 1.48 million tonnes, the highest weekly purchase in near 4 months. Traders believe China will import more than 5 million tonnes of soybeans in November from 3.73 million in October due to better crush margins. Net US weekly soybean sales came in at 1.341 million tonnes for this marketing year and 60,000 for next year for a total of 1.401 million. China’s purchases were actually above the grand total due to cancellations. Cumulative soybean sales stand at 76.7% of the USDA forecast for 2010/2011 versus a 5 year average of 55.2%. Meal sales came in at 133,800 tonnes and oil sales were 32,100 tonnes. Cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 61.0% of the USDA forecast for 2010/2011 versus a 5 year average of 26.5%. January soybeans traded in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged yesterday before ending the day with a modest loss. Meal was also lower while soybean oil finished higher. Census soybean oil stocks for October were 3.239 billion pounds, down from 3.358 billion in September. Leading soybean experts in the health and science fields appear to agree now that including soyfoods in a balanced diet will have beneficial effects and improve nutrient intake among the US population, according to the 2010 Journal of Nutrition Supplement.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Potential tightness in palm oil for the next few months, uncertainty over Argentina weather and continued strong demand from China appear to be bullish forces at work in soybeans. Weather forecast for Argentina turn hot into the weekend and there does not appear to be a chance of good rains until at least next weekend. Traders are already lowering their production estimates for Brazil and Argentina for this season due to a rough start. Buying support for November 2011 soybeans is at 1187 3/4 with 1208 and 1229 3/4 as next resistance.

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Talk of a probe in China over fund trading activity at the Shanghai exchange for rubber was seen as a reason for the sharp sell-off in soybeans overnight. Trade focus is on the USDA Crop Production and Supply/demand reports to be released on Friday morning. Solid demand from China this week for soybeans and oil and ideas that China demand will remain strong into the new crop season has helped support ideas that both beginning and ending stocks will be trimmed for the upcoming report. Traders see a slight revision down of 5-10 million bushels for the 2009/10 ending stocks which were last pegged at 160 million bushels. This estimate was at 245 million bushels at the start of the year but strong demand from China has caused stocks to tighten. With lower beginning stocks and ideas that there will be revisions higher in export and a slight decline in the production forecast, traders see ending stocks for the 2010/11 season falling 60-80 million bushels from 360 million as the last forecast. A combination of lower yield and lower planted area has traders looking for a 30-40 million bushel decline in soybean production from 3.433 billion bushels (44 yield) in last months forecast. A better crop in India this year has traders looking for meal exports to jump to near 3.0 million tonnes from 2.5 million this season. US meal consumption also looks to be on the rise with another jump in the weekly eggs set numbers which should boost poultry production into the 4th quarter. November soybeans pushed to a new high for the move yesterday before a late break and a modest loss for the session. Soy oil finished fractionally lower, but it managed to post a modest gain versus meal on the day. The USDA announced a sale of 115,000 tonnes of soybeans to China.
Weather has been favorable to late crop development and early harvest with the exception of excessive dryness in the SE and parts of the eastern Corn Belt along with some areas of excessive wetness in parts of Missouri and southern Illinois. This is overall favorable situation is expected to continue to be the case into the end of the week or longer.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: It may take a bullish surprise for the USDA reports on Friday morning to see much follow-through on the upside break-out this week. If outside market forces turn week into the report and the report does not show a surprise, long liquidation selling from specs and producer selling could help spark a significant correction.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Resistance for November soybeans comes in at 1045 and 1057 with support back at 1028 3/4 and 1022 1/4. It will take a close under support to sour the chart pattern which is currently supportive.

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Hot weather in the Eastern Corn Belt this weekend with no rain in the forecast until Wednesday has helped futures build a weather premium in for the tail end of the growing season. Traders remain concerned that many areas of Indiana and Ohio were too dry recently and any filling soybeans which are not maturing could have seen a negative impact on yield. Hot weather in the southern Midwest along with sudden death syndrome in Iowa are also seen as trouble spots. Traders will be monitoring the weekly crop progress report tonight to see if the crops continued to deteriorate in the past week. Last week, 64% of the crop was in good to excellent condition as compared with 69% last year and 57% as the ten year average for this time of the year. The USDA currently projects a 44 yield, the same as last year. November soybeans pushed sharply higher for the second session in a row on Friday closing 22 cents higher for the week. This took the market to its highest level since August 19th. Impressive gains in equities added to the positive tone in a number of markets, along with the announcement of a fresh sale of 120,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China by the USDA. Basis levels in the interior were mixed. Early harvested soybeans from the Delta moved onto the cash markets at an accelerated pace last week and that brought a downturn in basis levels at the Gulf during mid week through Friday. A Taiwanese buyer bought 57,500 tonnes of US soybeans for delivery during the first half of November. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of August 24th for Soybeans showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 130,965 contracts, a decrease of 8,029 contracts for the week. The selling trend is seen as a short-term negative force. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 184,507 contracts, down 2,704 contracts for the week. In soybean oil, Non-Commercial traders were net long 31,659 contracts, a decrease of 16,219 contracts. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 43,835 contracts, down 19,658 contracts for the week and the aggressive selling was seen as a short-term negative force. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 100,297 contracts, down 5,506 contracts for the week. In meal, Non-Commercial traders were net long 67,425 contracts, a decrease of 3,777 contracts. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 85,854 contracts, down 2,778 contracts for the week.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The COT reports showed that the turn in the weather came just in time for the markets to avoid a significant sell-off of the large net long positions from fund traders in the soybean complex. Yield forecasts will become increasingly important and without a drop of more than 1 1/2 to 2 bushels per acre from last months USDA estimate of 44, the market may struggle with hefty supply into the futures with a forecast for record world ending stocks based on the assumption that Brazil and Argentina production will be down 8 1/2 million tonnes from this year. This means the market is already counting on either a sharp reduction in yield in the US or a continued La Nina drought situation in South America.

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: A turn up in the stock market late yesterday and a rally in energy markets along with some weakness in the US dollar was enough to spark strong gains in soybeans and products overnight but traders see the upside limited by a favorable weather forecast and a continued flow of new crop soybeans from South America. While investor confidence in commodity markets may be a bit more stable, many traders see the supply fundamentals as a reason to suspect that investors will shy away from soybeans over the near-term. Mostly dry weather this week with only scattered light rain in the forecast into early next week appears to be near ideal weather to see an aggressive plantings pace and a good start to the crop which was already planted. The collapse in livestock prices in the US does not provide confidence in feed demand and has meal traders a bit nervous. Taiwan bought 58,000 tonnes of soybeans from Brazil. Egypt is tendering for 15,000-20,000 tonnes of soybean oil and the same amount for sunoil. Basis levels for soybeans at the gulf were steady yesterday with talk of slow producer selling. There is also less talk in cash circles about any switching of US and South American cargo bookings. A backdrop of sharply lower crude oil and equities and a sharply higher dollar combined with favorable crop weather helped drive the market lower yesterday. The favorable crop weather in the US is reinforcing ideas that this year’s US soybean yields could be higher than the USDA’s current projection of 42.9 bushels per acre. Last year’s US soybean yield was 44.0 bushels per acre under, cool, wet and nearly ideal conditions. One analyst noted that the cooler forecast for the coming weekend and into next week and the possibility of improved rainfall later next week was particularly favorable in that it would keep the current hot and relatively dry spell from lasting long enough to cause stress to recently planted soybean fields.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The lack of bearish outside market forces could allow for a short-term bounce in the market but it will likely take a significant weather threat to see much follow-through to the upside. Ideas that China buying in soybeans might slow in the next few months and a surge higher in available supply from South America are seen as bearish forces. Dry weather in the US this week could cause producers to plant even more soybean acreage that anticipated. Keep in mind, if we see a 1 bu/acre increase in yield from last year, soybean ending stocks could increase to near 525 million bushels from 190 million this year and 138 million last year.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Rallies would appear to be selling opportunities. Downtrend channel selling resistance for November soybeans comes in at 914 1/4 today with 883 and 875 as next downside objectives. Selling resistance for July soybeans is at 945 3/4 with 895 1/2 as next downside objective.

This content originated from - The Hightower Report.