Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The market saw an impressive upside break-out on Friday and with a positive tilt to outside markets, more buying emerged overnight to support sharply higher trade and a move to the highest level since June for nearby futures. Traders see dryness concerns for central Illinois and southern Minnesota as short-term supply factors which might be causing declining yield estimates from traders. Traders see another 1-2% decline in crop ratings for tonight’s weekly update. The rally overnight was especially impressive given the crop tour results from Friday afternoon. In the annual Pro Farmer crop tour, the average soybean yield estimate came in at 41.8 bu/acre as compared with the USDA estimate from the August report at 41.4. If we plug in this yield estimate and leave all the other numbers unchanged, ending stocks come in at 185 million bushels with a stocks/usage of 5.9%. This is up from the USDA August estimate of 155 million bushels. The tour did note that good rains would be necessary to support the higher yields and this is certainly in question. Rain events look active in the next ten days in the northern Corn Belt and in the southern sections of the Corn Belt and the northern delta but limited rains for the central part of the Midwest could keep crops in dry areas under stress. A sharp set-back in corn production this year might spark better demand for meal and December meal matched the March 31st contract high on Friday and surged to new contract highs this morning. The Commitments of Traders reports as of August 23rd showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 129,790 contracts for soybeans, an increase of 50,535 contracts in just one week. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 164,046 contracts, up 3,470. The aggressive buying trend from fund traders is seen as a positive short-term force. For Meal, Non-Commercial traders were net long 32,442 contracts, an increase of 15,087 contracts for the week. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 49,500 contracts, up 22,737 contracts for the week. For oil, Non-Commercial traders were net long 9,792 contracts, an increase of 11,597 contracts for the week. The shift from a net short to net long position is seen as positive. After some choppy and lower trade early, November soybeans saw a major technical break-out to the upside on Friday and moved sharply higher on the day. Talk that yield could slip below the August USDA report helped to support the solid recovery and rally to higher on the day.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The weather is mixed to slightly positive and traders see even lower yield than the USDA in August as a serious threat. Bullish outside market forces and a return of aggressive fund trader buying in grains is also seen as a supportive force. Trend-following funds increased their net long position by nearly 50,000 contracts to 94,835 for the week ending August 23rd.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Buying support for November soybeans moves up to 1421 1/2 and 1409 1/2, with 1458 and 1498 as next upside objectives.

Soybeans: Short-Term Rally
by Terry Roggensack on October 19, 2011
Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: From April to early October, November soybeans moved from a 5 cent carry to a 12 cent carry and it took only a few days to see the bull spread move back to 5 under. The bull spreads were a feature of the session yesterday as traders see strong cash basis levels and a lack of producer selling during harvest as a signal that the flat price or the spreads may need to move to a higher level to attract selling from producers. With news of the re-stocking activities in China, many traders have adjusted their China total import estimates to near 58 million tonnes from 56.5 million posted in last week’s supply/demand update. In addition to a smaller crop in China, the National Grains and Oils Information Centre in China believes that crushing capacity in China will jump to 125 million tonnes for 2012, up 12.5 million tonnes. As a result, demand could be on the rise. Weaker crush margins in the US and fears of low protein content have supported bull spreads in meal as well. Crush margins have also weakened in China and Europe so some traders see sluggish demand for soybeans in the short-term. November soybeans closed slightly lower on the session yesterday but up sharply from the early lows. The market was down sharply early due to perceived weak data regarding the China economy and poor economic news from Europe. With gold, silver and energy markets down sharply, traders expected aggressive selling from fund traders but a recovery in the US stock market helped support a strong recover from the early lows. The soybean harvest is 69% complete compared to 51% last week and 81% last year and traders mentioned harvest pressures as another negative force. However, a lack of producer selling during the active harvest season has helped to provide some support as cash basis levels are improving. Weekly export inspections came in at 45 million bushels which was well above trade expectations and compares with 28.1 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. The solid recovery in the stock market and in energy markets plus a move higher on the day for corn were seen as the primary reasons for the strong close.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The lack of producer selling suggest higher trade just ahead in order to get more soybeans in commercial hands. This mostly provides underlying support as basis and spreads could also invoke new selling from producers.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Look for a rally short-term but we remain concerned with outside forces so consider smaller objectives and tighter risks on traders in the short-term.