Tag Archives: Soyoil

Soybeans: Short-Term Rally

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: From April to early October, November soybeans moved from a 5 cent carry to a 12 cent carry and it took only a few days to see the bull spread move back to 5 under. The bull spreads were a feature of the session yesterday as traders see strong cash basis levels and a lack of producer selling during harvest as a signal that the flat price or the spreads may need to move to a higher level to attract selling from producers. With news of the re-stocking activities in China, many traders have adjusted their China total import estimates to near 58 million tonnes from 56.5 million posted in last week’s supply/demand update. In addition to a smaller crop in China, the National Grains and Oils Information Centre in China believes that crushing capacity in China will jump to 125 million tonnes for 2012, up 12.5 million tonnes. As a result, demand could be on the rise. Weaker crush margins in the US and fears of low protein content have supported bull spreads in meal as well. Crush margins have also weakened in China and Europe so some traders see sluggish demand for soybeans in the short-term. November soybeans closed slightly lower on the session yesterday but up sharply from the early lows. The market was down sharply early due to perceived weak data regarding the China economy and poor economic news from Europe. With gold, silver and energy markets down sharply, traders expected aggressive selling from fund traders but a recovery in the US stock market helped support a strong recover from the early lows. The soybean harvest is 69% complete compared to 51% last week and 81% last year and traders mentioned harvest pressures as another negative force. However, a lack of producer selling during the active harvest season has helped to provide some support as cash basis levels are improving. Weekly export inspections came in at 45 million bushels which was well above trade expectations and compares with 28.1 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. The solid recovery in the stock market and in energy markets plus a move higher on the day for corn were seen as the primary reasons for the strong close.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The lack of producer selling suggest higher trade just ahead in order to get more soybeans in commercial hands. This mostly provides underlying support as basis and spreads could also invoke new selling from producers.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Look for a rally short-term but we remain concerned with outside forces so consider smaller objectives and tighter risks on traders in the short-term.

SOYBEANS: Weather Mixed to Positive; Lower Yield than August USDA?

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The market saw an impressive upside break-out on Friday and with a positive tilt to outside markets, more buying emerged overnight to support sharply higher trade and a move to the highest level since June for nearby futures. Traders see dryness concerns for central Illinois and southern Minnesota as short-term supply factors which might be causing declining yield estimates from traders. Traders see another 1-2% decline in crop ratings for tonight’s weekly update. The rally overnight was especially impressive given the crop tour results from Friday afternoon. In the annual Pro Farmer crop tour, the average soybean yield estimate came in at 41.8 bu/acre as compared with the USDA estimate from the August report at 41.4. If we plug in this yield estimate and leave all the other numbers unchanged, ending stocks come in at 185 million bushels with a stocks/usage of 5.9%. This is up from the USDA August estimate of 155 million bushels. The tour did note that good rains would be necessary to support the higher yields and this is certainly in question. Rain events look active in the next ten days in the northern Corn Belt and in the southern sections of the Corn Belt and the northern delta but limited rains for the central part of the Midwest could keep crops in dry areas under stress. A sharp set-back in corn production this year might spark better demand for meal and December meal matched the March 31st contract high on Friday and surged to new contract highs this morning. The Commitments of Traders reports as of August 23rd showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 129,790 contracts for soybeans, an increase of 50,535 contracts in just one week. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 164,046 contracts, up 3,470. The aggressive buying trend from fund traders is seen as a positive short-term force. For Meal, Non-Commercial traders were net long 32,442 contracts, an increase of 15,087 contracts for the week. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 49,500 contracts, up 22,737 contracts for the week. For oil, Non-Commercial traders were net long 9,792 contracts, an increase of 11,597 contracts for the week. The shift from a net short to net long position is seen as positive. After some choppy and lower trade early, November soybeans saw a major technical break-out to the upside on Friday and moved sharply higher on the day. Talk that yield could slip below the August USDA report helped to support the solid recovery and rally to higher on the day.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The weather is mixed to slightly positive and traders see even lower yield than the USDA in August as a serious threat. Bullish outside market forces and a return of aggressive fund trader buying in grains is also seen as a supportive force. Trend-following funds increased their net long position by nearly 50,000 contracts to 94,835 for the week ending August 23rd.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Buying support for November soybeans moves up to 1421 1/2 and 1409 1/2, with 1458 and 1498 as next upside objectives.

Soybeans: Follow Wheat Down or Corn Up?

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: A sluggish world demand tone and weakness in wheat are negative forces today as the market gave back a good portion of yesterday’s gains in overnight action. Traders see the market in need of warmer and drier weather and a hot and dry outlook into the 4th of July weekend is bringing mixed reviews. Palm oil production is expected to climb in the second half of 2011 and stocks are expected to rise above the 16-month high of 1.92 million tonnes posted last month. Indonesia will raise export taxes in July which is expected to boost exports from Indonesia for the remainder of this month and slow exports from Malaysia. Feed companies in China consumed 35 million tonnes of meal last year which was up 13% from 2009. Higher pork prices this year are expected to encourage increased feed usage for the coming year and with high corn prices, meal demand should remain strong. The market managed to recover from a mid-session set-back yesterday to close moderately higher on the session. New crop found some support from a little more threatening weather for early July and strength in corn and the US stock market also helped. The outlook for a hot and dry ridge to move into the western Corn Belt for the 4th of July weekend plus weakness in the US dollar and strength in other commodity markets and equity markets helped support the higher trade early in the session. Talk of the oversold condition of the market after a 7-session break of 86 1/2 cents into Friday’s lows added to the positive tone. The weekly crop updates did not bring any surprises with 94% of the crop planted as of Sunday and 82% of the crop emerged from 86% as the 5-year average. The crop is rated 68% in good to excellent condition which was up 1% from last week and unchanged from the 10-year average. A positive tone to edible oil prices due to higher palm futures and continued talk of tighter supply from Europe due to spring drought and damage to the Canadian crop due to too much rain were seen as factors to support soybean oil. However, the sharp break in palm oil overnight helped push July soybean oil under yesterday’s lows in overnight action.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The soybean market seems undecided on whether to follow wheat lower or corn higher. The weather outlook is seen as bearish by some traders and this may be the case if there is just a few days of hot and dry weather but the models suggests a strong high pressure ridge with 95-100 degrees across a good portion of the corn belt in the 6-10 and 11-15 day forecast models. An extended ridge pattern should be considered bullish as corn damage will be possible if the heat lasts into July. The market needs a high yield this year to avoid significant tightness and the forecast opens the door for the market to begin to build a weather premium.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The technical action is weak and November soybeans close in support will need to hold at 1339 3/4 or the market looks vulnerable to another swing down to the 1320 level. Look for support to hold on a closing basis. A move over 1358 1/2 and especially 1367 3/4 will put the market back on a bull track with 1433 3/4 as next upside target.

Soybeans: Limited Old Crop Upside with Higher Ending Stocks Expected

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Fund trader buying emerged to support a strong recovery yesterday and the market inched higher in overnight trade. While the US weather looks favorable for planting, adverse weather for Canada and to some extent China has traders uncomfortable in assuming a strong oilseed crop this season. The USDA attache in China believes that soybean imports for the 2011/12 season will reach 58 million tonnes from 54.5 million this year. Production is expected to slip to 14.4 million tonnes from 15.2 million this season. Private traders still see the 54.5 million tonnes this year as too high and there is talk that many traders are adjusting old crop ending stocks higher for the June supply/demand report next week. Brazil meal exports reached 1.5 million tonnes for May from 1.2 million in April and from 1.4 million last year. Oil exports reached 165,000 tonnes from 59,000 April and 102,000 last year. A late spurt of buying from fund traders helped support solid gains yesterday and the highest close for November soybeans since April 25th. Weakness in outside market forces and in wheat helped to pressure the market early as traders see better weather for planting in the US and some significant rains into the weekend for Europe as negative forces. However, the slow plantings pace for soybeans and a bounce in corn and meal helped support the market to trade higher. A private firm released a US soybean planted acreage estimate of just 74.89 million acres and this might have helped support the market late in the day. If we plug in this estimate to the supply/demand table and leave the rest of the USDA numbers from May unchanged, US ending stocks come in at 87 million bushels as compared with the USDA estimate of 160 million for the 2011/12 season. Planting progress last week was lower than expected at just 51% complete compared to 71% last year. Only 7% of the Ohio crop is planted and just 29% is planted in North Dakota but Iowa is already 87% complete. Ideas that fund traders may emerge as buyers of commodity markets during early June also helped to provide some support.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The weather news was a short-term negative force for grains yesterday but the market shrugged off this news and closed strong. After another 6-8 days of dry and sometimes hot weather in the Midwest, the extended forecast models suggest a shift back toward more seasonal weather. The upside for old crop looks limited by expectations for higher old crop ending stocks in next week’s report.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: November soybean short-term support moves up to 1365 1/2 and then 1349 1/4 with 1393 1/2 and 1458 1/2 as next objectives. December soybean oil is showing good resistance near 60.08 but support at 59.27. Additional resistance is at 60.51.

Soybeans: USDA To Set The Tone

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Outside market forces are quite negative this morning and traders see the possibility of some negative news from the USDA. The supply/demand results this morning could influence trade but after the sharp break of the past four trading sessions, it may take some very negative results to cause further weakness. Traders see the possibility of a higher Brazil crop estimate and a possible adjustment lower in China import demand as reasons to suspect that US ending stocks might come in a little higher than last month. World ending stocks should also increase with traders looking for an increase of near 1 million tonnes from 58.21 million posted in February. China imported just 2.32 million tonnes of soybeans in February which was down 21% from last year and down 54.9% from January. January-February combined imports are at 7.45 million tonnes, up 6.1% from last year. Traders expect a recovery for March. The USDA attache from China believes that imports for the 2011/12 season will reach 58 million tonnes, up 5.5% from this season. An expanding livestock herd and continued growth in edible oil consumption are reasons for the increased imports. May soybeans closed sharply lower on the session yesterday and pushed to the lowest level since February 25th. Continued concerns that the Brazil and Argentina crop production estimates are increasing due to higher yield expectations provided a bearish influence on the market and helped spark another round of long liquidation selling to drive soybeans sharply lower. This pushed the market to the lowest level since March 1st and funds were noted as active sellers for the second day in a row. Liquidation ahead of the report was active and the selling intensified on the move under Tuesday’s lows. Talk of more rain for the Argentina crop for the coming weekend was also seen as a negative force. Brazil northern areas continue to see hefty rain totals in the forecast and this may be seen as a positive development as unharvested soybeans may be at greater risk to excess moisture issues. Soybean basis at the gulf was said to have jumped 5 cents to 80 cents over for spot delivery as tight supply helped support the higher bids. Traders see weekly export sales for soybeans for release ahead of the opening near 550,000 tonnes.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Eventually, the focus is likely to shift to the end of the month reports and with high profitability for corn and cotton compared with soybeans, there is a sense that soybean planted acreage estimates will begin to move down to lower than last year. If so, there will be little room for anything but near record yields to avoid further tightness for next year. If we were to see soybean planted area come down slightly this year to 77.0 million acres and yield at a simple 5-year average of 42.4 bushels per acre, soybean ending stocks would come in at just 43 million bushels for the 2011/12 season. With tight stocks and uncertainty over planted acreage in the US, the downside appears somewhat limited. On negative news for the reports this morning, next support for May soybeans comes in at the 1335 to 1310 zone. On supportive news, 1361 1/2 and 1381 3/4 are next resistance.

Soybeans: If Other Grains Higher, Nov Beans Needs to Follow

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The new highs for the move for palm oil overnight and news that China soybean futures were strong coming back from holiday plus the jump in wheat futures helped support the market overnight. The positive tilt to grains and food security concerns continue to provide underlying support which has been offset recently by improving supply news from South America. Heavy rains this week in Argentina have eased any dryness concerns for now even though there is a mostly dry forecast just ahead. Brazil officials pegged the soybean crop at a record 70.1 million tonnes from 68.55 million as their January forecast. A late rally in meal after early pressure to the lowest level since February 1st yesterday helped to support a strong close in the soybean complex. November soybeans pushed higher as traders see the need for soybeans to compete with other crops to expand planted area for the coming season. November soybeans posted a new high for the move overnight. A potential slowdown in the China economy due to an interest rate hike was seen as a negative factor, especially for markets like soybeans where China is the major importer on the world market. Talk of the overbought condition of the market, talk of higher/record Brazil production for the upcoming harvest and talk of the hefty net long position of fund traders were all factors which led to the long liquidation selling following the China news. Traders see higher exports as a reason to suspect lower ending stocks in the supply/demand update for this morning with many traders looking for a decline of 5-10 million bushels from 140 million posted last month. Gulf basis levels were steady to higher with slow river movement and firm export tone helping to support. The late rally pulled March soybeans up near 20 cents from the day’s lows to close near the day’s highs.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Brazil news and good rains in Argentina this week are slowing the flow of funds to the soybean complex but tightening vegetable oil supply continues to provide support. If the other grains move higher, November soybeans needs to follow as there is a threat that planted area will be lower for soybeans this year due to corn, cotton and wheat rallies.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: November soybean buying support comes in at 1371 with 1445 and then 1498 as upside targets. May soybean support moves up to 1428 3/4 with 1484 3/4 as next objective. May soybean oil support is 58.97 with 61.75 as next upside objective.

Soybean Market Commentary – 2011.01.21

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: A weak US dollar and news that China inked deals for 3.07 million tonnes of US soybeans worth near $1.8 billion at the trade delegation meetings in Chicago failed to provide much support overnight. Traders see improving weather and crop conditions in Argentina and there is continued talk of the overbought technical condition of the market. Traders see recent rains in Argentina as beneficial and after 4-5 days of hot and dry weather, there is a cold front next week which could bring two days of showers and cooler weather which traders believe could be very beneficial to crop conditions. Traders remain concerned that China will slow their economy to fight inflation. China plans to continue to offer state reserves at auctions next week but will also be buying soybeans from producers to re-build state reserves. China plans to offer 300,000 tonnes of soybeans for auction on Tuesday. The corn market saw a strong recovery to close sharply higher on the session yesterday and the late buying in corn helped support a slightly higher close in old crop soybeans. November soybeans managed to recover from early losses to trade moderately higher on the day and to post a new high for the move. Traders see the “need” for November soybeans to move higher now in an effort to entice producers to shift to plant more soybeans. Cash markets are steady as recent weakness in futures has slowed producer selling. Traders see soybean weekly export sales for release before the opening near 600,000 tonnes, meal sales near 95,000 and oil sales of near 60,000 tonnes. Old crop oil sales need to average just 6,600 tonnes each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. Argentina truck drivers and port workers near the main grain terminal at Rosario plan to go on strike from next Wednesday to protest pay. This could disrupt to flow of oil and meal on the world market.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Private forecasters will be releasing planted area estimates today and if there is a continue guess that producers will not significantly raise soybean plantings, November soybeans still have time to “buy” the acres. As a result, while the Argentina weather looks bearish, the need for more acres could cause new crop soybeans to lead the rally higher. An extremely tight outlook for US stocks and the Argentina strikes are also supportive forces which should provide support on a shallow correction from the highs.

Soybean Market Commentary – 2011.01.04

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The market recovered part of yesterday’s sharp losses as the US dollar weakened and traders see a little less rain relief for Argentina this week. There is still a forecast for rain for Argentina for the next few days but traders do not see this as a trend and see a drier than normal trend for Argentina for next week. Rains could temporarily relieve stress from parts of the Argentina growing areas and this news helped spark the sell-off yesterday. Traders are also somewhat nervous that poor crush margins and hefty soybean stocks at ports could slow China buying of soybeans and that fund trader rebalancing could pressure grain markets into next week. March soybeans posted a contract high early in the session yesterday and closed sharply lower on the day and even managed to take out Friday’s lows. The market pushed to a new high for the move early but talk of better than expected weather for Argentina this week and some long liquidation selling helped to spark a sell-off and lower trade. Weekly export inspections for soybeans came in at just 20.15 million bushels, about half of what was expected by some traders and this compares with 30.7 million bushels last week and 22.8 million necessary each week to reach the forecast for the season. Higher trade in wheat and a positive tone to the economy and equity markets helped to provide some support. A new 33-month high for palm oil futures plus higher energy prices helped to support a run to contract highs for March soybean oil and the lower close is seen as a negative technical development. The Commitments of Traders reports as of December 28th, released after the close, showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 186,612 contracts, up 8,167 contracts for the week. The active buying trend from funds is seen as a short-term positive force. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 162,289 contracts. This represents an increase of 12,294 contracts for the week. For Soybean Oil, Non-Commercial traders were net long 64,497 contracts, an increase of 648 contracts. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 106,780 contracts, up 4,339 contracts for the week. For meal, Non-Commercial traders were net long 42,550 contracts, down slightly for the week. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 65,536 contracts, down 1,394 contracts for the week. The Chinese government will sell 100,000 tonnes of edible oil from state reserves on January 7th. South Korea is tendering for 25,000 tonnes of non-GMO soybeans and Egypt is tendering for up to 20,000 tonnes of soybean oil.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Rains this week are expected to ease the stress for the Argentina crop but traders still see a warmer and drier than normal trend for the Argentina weather into mid-January. Traders see tightening world and US soybean stocks for the USDA supply/demand report next week. Index fund trader rebalancing (selling near 7,000 contracts in soybeans and near 10,000 in oil) does not begin until later this week. With tight near-term supply for palm oil and the market facing a supply/demand update and final production update next week and uncertainty on the longer term weather in Argentina, the market should be well supported on a rain-led break early this week.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: March soybean buying support comes in at 1355 1/2 today with 1435 as next upside objective. Uptrend channel support is all the way back at 1345 today. The key reversal for March oil leaves first support at 56.64 and 56.07 with chart support at 55.71. March meal also saw a key reversal with initial support at 360.40 and 355.70. November soybean support is at 1285 and 1283 1/2 with 1304 3/4 and 1338 as next upside objectives. The market could set-back to 1257 1/2 and still remain in the uptrend channel.

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Soybean Market Commentary – 2011.11.04

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Ideas that quantitative easing by the Fed will eventually lead to inflationary pressures and another sharp break in the US dollar overnight helped spark strong buying and an upside break-out of the recent trading range for January soybeans. The Brazil trade ministry indicated that October exports for soybeans were 1 million tonnes vs. 2 million in September. Weekly export sales news will be released this morning with traders looking for more than 1 million tonnes for soybeans but down from 2.025 million last week. India meal exports in October were up 61% from last year and have increased for the 4th month in a row. The market ended slightly higher on the session yesterday and sharply up from the lows of the day. January soybeans, December oil and December meal all reached a new high close for the recent uptrend. A sharp break in Treasury bonds and a lower US dollar shortly after the Fed announcement just after the grain close yesterday suggested that active quantitative easing might be seen as somewhat inflationary force ahead. A lack of surprises for the election and news of significant rains in the formally dry #1 producing state in Brazil may be factors which added to the selling pressure in soybeans. Mato Grosso plantings have been behind normal due to dry conditions so the hefty rain totals of the past few days has traders thinking that planting progress will be very active in the weeks just ahead. Argentina rain totals have been lower recently and there are still concerns over a dry growing season due to La Nina patterns for the region. Many areas of Argentina should receive rains into the weekend but the Cordoba region is beginning to dry down and traders will be monitoring this situation closely.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Outside market forces have turned very bullish and this is pushing sellers to the sidelines and attracting new buying from fund traders. With harvest about complete, traders are also looking at next years battle for acres as cotton and corn producers may be showing higher profitability than soybeans and this could limit soybean acres. This may have helped support the November 2011 contract recently.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The upside break-out for January soybeans leaves 1291 1/4 as next upside objective and then 1324 1/4 on the weekly charts. Support is at 1240. The upside break-out leaves 54.69 as next upside objective for nearby oil futures with support for December oil at 50.22.

Soybean Market Commentary – 2010.10.27

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Ideas that the US Fed will take a slow and measured approach with quantitative easing has helped to stabilize the US dollar and this has helped trigger selling in many commodity markets in the past few days. November soybeans managed to post a new high for the move in overnight trade before pushing sharply lower on the session this morning and even testing psychological support at 12.00 with a low of 12.00 1/4. The run to 12.29 was the highest trade for nearby futures since August of 2009. Talk that China has booked near 250,000 tonnes of soyoil from Argentina this week pulling the total for the month to 400,000 helped to support the market and China soybean buying from the US has added to the positive tone for the market in recent days. The China Grain and Oils Information Centre indicated that crush capacity in the country will increase by 11 million tonnes to 95 million tonnes for this season. The dollar was moderately higher yesterday and this was seen as a limiting force but other outside factors were considered slightly supportive including a sharp rally in wheat. No soybean sales were announced by the USDA yesterday morning which was a change. Weather was not considered a crop problem yesterday since soybeans are 96-97% harvested in Illinois, Iowa and Indiana with Ohio at 95% harvested. The heaviest winds were expected in Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Harvest figures are as of Sunday, so the completion percentages are even higher as producers tried to finish up ahead of the storm. Brazil weather seems to be improving with more moisture in the forecast for this coming weekend after decent rains in the past several days.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The market looks vulnerable to post a negative outside-day down reversal today and this may attract some technical selling. Selling from US dollar bears may also help pressure and producers have been very quiet in the past week despite the near completion of harvest. Weather appears to be improving in South America, the market appears to be overbought technically.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: November soybean short-term resistance moves down to 1214 today with 1154 1/2 as first strong technical support. December meal is still operating under the negative technical influence of the October 21st reversal. Look for set-back to 319.70 with selling resistance today at 334.80.