Tag Archives: Wheat

Wheat: Lower Prices May be Necessary to Attract Demand.

by on January 13, 2012

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: There was not much in the way of positive news from the USDA yesterday and the market gave back a large portion of the late December rally. March wheat closed sharply lower on the session yesterday as both wheat and corn data from the USDA was bearish enough to spark aggressive selling. US usage came in below trade expectations and wheat plantings for the 2012 crop came in well above trade expectations. The USDA pegged total winter wheat planted acreage for 2012 at 41.947 million acres as compared with trade expectations for near 40.933 million. Hard red winter wheat acreage was up 662,000 above trade expectations to over 30 million and soft red was up nearly 600,000 above expectations at 8.37 million. Ending stocks for the 2011/12 season were pegged at 870 million bushels, about 30 million above trade expectations. While exports were revised higher (as expected) feed usage was revised lower by 15 million bushels to 145 million which was bearish as traders expected a boost in wheat feeding. Wheat stocks as of December 1st were pegged at 1.656 billion bushels as compared with trade expectations at 1.695 billion. For the world report, 2011/12 ending stocks were pegged at 210.02 million tonnes, up more than 2 million from trade expectations and up from 199.9 last year and 202 million for the 2009/10 season. Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 365,200 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 73,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 438,200. Cumulative wheat sales stand at 77.2% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 75.2%. Sales of 279,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. On top of the weekly sales, Algeria bought 300,000 tonnes of optional origin milling wheat. Traders believe the origin is likely France or Argentina. The EU granted export licenses this week for 168,000 tonnes which pushed cumulative exports since the start of the 2011/12 season to 7.5 million tonnes as compared with 11.9 million last year at this time. March wheat is now down as much as 78 3/4 cents or 11.7% from the 2012 peak. Japan bought 139,000 tonnes of US wheat for March shipment. Egypt is tendering for optional origin wheat overnight with results expected this morning.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The technical action turned very weak with yesterday’s collapse and the build-up in open interest in the last few weeks suggest that the trade could stay volatile. Lower prices may be necessary to attract demand.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: March wheat resistance comes in at 622 with 588 as next support.

Wheat: See Longer Trend Down but Could See Significant Recovery Bounce

by on October 27, 2011

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Outside market forces turned very positive overnight and with speculators holding a hefty net short position in the last COT report, some traders expect active short-covering today. Russia exported a record 3.8 million tonnes of grain and flour in September and took all of the Egypt tender business yesterday. Egypt bought 120,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia in their tender and some traders saw this as negative as Ukraine may be a little more aggressive on the next tender. Traders were a bit surprised that Ukraine was not a more aggressive on the tender with offers near $6.00 per tonne higher than Russia. There is 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain/snow in the short-term forecast for the southern plains winter wheat areas and traders see the moisture as beneficial but the cold is a bit of a concern. In addition, the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast models look dry. Crop conditions to start the season are unchanged from last year but still the worst since at least 1986. Ukraine areas also look dry. December wheat closed sharply lower on the session yesterday and closed near the lows. Funds were aggressive sellers on the day for grains and other agriculture and energy markets. The market had a firm tone into the opening on dry weather issues for winter wheat crops in the US and Ukraine but weakness in outside markets helped to pressure the market to trade sharply lower on the day and near the lows into the mid-session. A turn up in the US dollar had traders “less” interested in risky assets like agricultural futures and a long liquidation selling trend emerged. Traders see weekly export sales for this morning near 450,000 tonnes.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: With open interest rising to the highest level since August this week, we can only assume that fund traders have built a larger net short position. The supply fundamentals are bearish but the new crop outlook is in question for the US and Ukraine and commodity markets are likely to attract “risk-on” buying after the markets avoided a major debt crises in Europe. While the longer-term trend may be down, we can not rule out a significant recovery bounce.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: December wheat support is at 628 and 622 3/4, with 642 1/4 and 660 as resistance. With help from the other grains and fund short-covering, look for solid gains in the near-term. Keep 17.67 and 18.68 as next targets for January rough rice with light support today at 17.19.

Wheat: More of a Follower of Corn For Now

by on October 19, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: While the recent USDA reports showed ample US and global wheat supply, the market continues to find some underlying support from fears of significant production declines in the US and Ukraine for the coming year “if” weather conditions remain dry in the weeks and months just ahead. It looks dry for the next few weeks in both locations. In addition, talk of the record or near record net short position of speculators in Chicago wheat has helped spark oversold condition fears and this has helped support as well. Wheat followed corn higher after early steep losses yesterday. Saudi Arabia plans to import 1.9 million tonnes of wheat this year due to rising consumption. Egypt, the world’s largest importer, plans to grow 3 million acres of wheat this season from 2.6 million last year and 2.1 million the previous year. December wheat closed slightly higher on the session yesterday with other months mixed. December KC wheat closed down 2 3/4 cents while December Minneapolis wheat closed up 10 3/4 cents. The market was under pressure early led by weakness in outside markets and strength in the US dollar but a lack of aggressive new selling plus higher trade in Minneapolis wheat helped support a strong rally from the early lows to trade moderately higher on the day. Weakness in the other grains helped to limit the advance and the market set-back to near unchanged on the day into the mid-session. Taiwan is tendering to buy 43,950 tonnes of US wheat. Japan is tendering for 102,652 tonnes of food wheat at their weekly tender. Weekly export inspections came in at 16.36 million bushels which was near the low end of trade expectations and compares with 18.4 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the year.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Unless the winter wheat conditions in the US and Ukraine deteriorate further, wheat looks more like a follower of corn than anything else. The market is vulnerable to a short-covering trend if corn manages to push to a higher level.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Look for resistance for December wheat near 635 and 642 1/4, with 608 and 597 as support. A move through resistance would leave 688 as key resistance. Wheat looks to follow corn for now.

USDA Supply Demand Review – 2011.10

by on October 12, 2011

SOYBEANS

The USDA reports were considered bullish for soybeans with the market called cents 5-10 cents higher on the opening. The USDA pegged soybean production at 3.06 billion bushels from 3.085 billion last month and trade expectations near 3.095 billion. Average yield came in at just 41.5 bushels per acre from 41.8 last month and trade expectations near 42. Ending stocks for the 2011/12 season came in at just 160 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at near 185 million and 165 million as last months estimate. World ending stocks for the 2011/12 season came in at 63.01 million tonnes as compared with 62.55 million last month and the increase came from an adjustment higher in the 2010/11 ending stocks to a record high 69.26 million tonnes.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Declining US and world ending stocks and a smaller than expected US crop plus active buying from China yesterday and rumors that China will be re-stocking reserves should keep the short-term trend up. Look for more up with 1282 1/4 and 1318 3/4 as next upside targets for January soybeans.

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CORN

The USDA report this morning was considered slightly negative against trade expectations with the market called 3-5 cents higher on the opening due to positive soybean news. Production came in at 12.433 billion bushels as compared with 12.497 billion bushels last month and this was about 60 million bushels below trade expectations. However, exports were revised lower so the USDA ending stocks forecast is now at 866 million bushels which is about 60 million above trade expectations and compares with 672 million last month. Harvested acres were revised down by 500,000 which was right in line with expectations and yield was unchanged at 148.1. World ending stocks were adjusted higher to 123.19 million tonnes from 117.39 million last month and 114.53 two months ago. Last year was 129.76.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Given the limit-up surge yesterday and a positive tilt to the soybean data, the market may see some follow-through higher on China buying rumors but December corn resistance should emerge near 675. A lower close today could suggest a set-back to 624 if outside forces turn sour.

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WHEAT

The USDA Supply/Demand report this morning was considered bearish for wheat with the market called slightly lower. US wheat ending stocks were pegged at 837 million bushels as compared with 761 million bushels last month and 671 million two months ago. Traders were looking for ending stocks near 735 million. The USDA lowered wheat feeding to 160 million from 240 million bushels last month and also lowered exports by 50 million bushels. For the world report, 2011/12 ending stocks were pegged at 202.4 million tonnes from 194.6 million last month. Demand numbers were far worse than expected with wheat feeding down in the US and down near 5 million tonnes for the world. World production was revised up by 3 million tonnes.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The jump in US and world ending stocks was not anticipated and the market looks to work lower over the near-term with support for December wheat emerging at 622 3/4 and 608.

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USDA October Supply Demand Preview

by on October 7, 2011

SOYBEANS

The soybean market has seen a collapse of more than $3.00 since late August and is extremely oversold going into the key October USDA Crop Production and Supply Demand reports on Wednesday, October 12th. On top of the bearish macroeconomic news of the past six weeks, the market is also absorbing better weather for September and a general expectation for higher yields in the report. There have been recent indications that yield in areas which were hit with dryness could be down due to low moisture content. However, we still expect to see a jump in yield to around 42.8 bushels/acre, up 1 bushel/acre from last month. While the late start to corn plantings might have pushed actual soybean planted area a bit higher, the FSA data has indicated the opposite. We lowered our estimate of harvested acreage by 100,000 acres. With a record South America supply on September 1st, we also lowered our export forecast by 10 million bushels. As a result, we see ending stocks increasing to 233 million bushels from 165 projected last month. This would push the stocks/usage ratio to 7.4%, a 5-year high.

PRICE OUTLOOK: We see a bounce in January soybeans to the 1211 3/4 to 1266 3/4 zone as a selling opportunity, with 1145 and 1139 as next downside objectives.

CORN

There is also plenty of talk from the early harvest of higher than expected yield. While the weather in July was some of the worst on record, subsoil moisture ahead of the heat was good. Producers used record high profitability on paper to justify spending more on inputs (such as fertilizer) in order to attain optimal yields. On top of that, the weather in September was nearly ideal. We are looking for a jump in yield in this report to the vicinity of 150 bushels/acre, up from 148.1 last month. This would more than offset a drop the harvested acreage of 500,000 acres that we think resulted from the poor weather earlier in the growing season. Based on these changes, we are looking for production to come in around 12.585 billion bushels, which is still below projected usage. We have lowered our estimate of ethanol usage by 25 million bushels and have raised our exports estimate by 50 million bushels due to expected increases in demand from China. As a result, we see ending stocks increasing to 943 million bushels from 672 projected last month. This would push the stocks/usage ratio to 7.4%.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The increase in ending stocks is expected, and even if yield is left unchanged, ending stocks will increase to 858 million bushels (784 million with the acreage adjustment), so it will be tough to see a bullish surprise for the report. Our concern is that the soybean numbers could be negative enough to carry the other grains lower after the report. The long liquidation trend by hedge funds and index funds is a concern. Look for December corn resistance at the 630 to 651 zone, with support at the 575 to 551 zone.

WHEAT

The Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains numbers (which included wheat production were released last week, so a good deal of the uncertainty in the wheat outlook has already been absorbed by the market. As a result, the “by class” estimates will be the most important data for the wheat market in Wednesday’s Supply/Demand report. Hard spring wheat ending stocks could slip below 100 million bushels, which would be the second tightest on record. (In 2007, record low stocks contributed to the rally to $24.00 per bushel.) While this could be the bullish highlight of the report, US total ending stocks and especially world ending stocks data are not showing any abnormal tightness. US ending stocks could drop to 725 million bushels from 761 million last month and 861 million last year. Production was already revised down by 69 million bushels last week.

PRICE OUTLOOK: With the extremely oversold condition, it will not take much in the way of positive news or even some relief from global economic concerns to spark at least a short-covering bounce in wheat. Dryness in Ukraine is still an issue, and there could also be a return to dry weather in the US southern plains that could spark concerns for next year’s supply. Given the huge profitability for corn and soybean producers around the world, the wheat market might also be caught up in a battle for planted acreage. Close-in support for December wheat is 610, with 642 and 676 1/2 as stiff resistance. The double bottom might spark some short-covering ahead, with funds holding a record high net long position.

COTTON

Traders see yields coming down for this report, which could drag production down by 150,000-250,000 bales. Pakistan’s production may also be revised lower. However, there are still concerns that other key exporters like India will be more competitive than the US, which could raise questions on the ability of the US to export 12 million bales this season. It is too early in the marketing year and the current export pace is too strong for us to expect the USDA to revise is US export estimate lower. With that in mind, the US ending stocks might come in at 3.2 to 3.3 million bales versus 3.4 million last month and 2.6 million last year. World demand is still in question as well, so lower US and Pakistan production estimates may not necessarily lower world ending stocks.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Look for a range of 106.80 to 94.55 for December cotton over the near term.

USDA Grain Stocks Review – 2011.09.30

by on September 30, 2011

Below is The Hightower Report’s summary of the most recent USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks report.  This report is available with your subscription to our Daily Commentary. Sign up for a Free Trail.

Full Report: USDA Quarterly Grains Stocks Review – 2011.09.31

CORN

The USDA report this morning was considered bearish with the market called to open down 15-20 cents lower. September 1st corn stocks were pegged at 1.128 billion bushels, which was 164 million bushels above trade expectations and outside of the wide range of estimates.

This is the beginning stocks for the 2011/12 season and if we plug in the new number to the supply/demand report and leave all of the other numbers unchanged, ending stocks are adjusted to 836 million bushels from 672 million posted in the September supply/demand report.

PRICE OUTLOOK: A resumption of the downtrend for December corn leaves 616 and 603 1/4 as next support levels.

 

SOYBEANS

The USDA reports this morning were considered slightly supportive for the soybean market but a bearish number for corn has caused an opening call of 15-20 cents lower. The USDA pegged September 1st stocks at 214.7 million bushels which was about 10 million bushels below trade expectations. This is the beginning stocks for the 2011/12 season and will tighten the outlook somewhat for the coming season; depending on the October 12th production update.

PRICE OUTLOOK: A resumption of the recent downtrend due to bearish news for the corn market leaves 1187 as next downside target for November soybeans.

 

WHEAT

The USDA wheat production report this morning was considered positive to the wheat market but this was more than offset by bearish news for wheat stocks and corn stocks and the market is called 5-10 cents lower on the opening. Traders were looking for spring wheat production near 493 million bushels but the report came in at 462.5 million bushels which is supportive. As a result, all wheat production is pegged at 2.008 billion bushels which is 36 million below trade expectations and down from 2.077 billion as the last USDA estimate. However, September 1st stocks came in at 2.15 billion bushels which was 115 million bushels above trade expectations. The report suggests that wheat feeding was not as high as expected.

PRICE OUTLOOK: A resumption of the recent downtrend leaves 606 3/4 as next target for December wheat.

 

Wheat: 2012 Production Concerns?

by on September 23, 2011

Below is an excerpt from The Hightower Report’s most recent Newsletter. To receive access to this story, with trade strategies, and our daily coverage of 16 markets, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

The wheat market has been in a steep downtrend since peaking in late August, as the emergence of Black Sea exporters and a long liquidation selling trend in corn and soybeans have exerted pressure. Over the next six weeks, we could see some concerns develop for the 2012 production outlook. The southern US plains remain in a drought, and unless that area receives 6-10 inches of rain in the next few weeks, the winter wheat crop could get planted late or not at all this fall. In that case the market will be forced to count on spring-planted winter wheat or spring wheat next year. Argentina’s wheat growing areas are also dry, and dry weather is threatening to cause issues with Ukraine’s plantings as well. While soft red winter wheat stocks in the US are plentiful and world stocks are ample, the USDA could lower its 2011 US spring wheat estimate in the Small Grains report on September 30, as excessive rains this past spring likely reduced harvested area. Also, US feed wheat consumption has could have been driven higher because the drought in the southern plains pulled cattle off of pasture and onto feedlots. In the September Supply/Demand report, the USDA projected feed usage at just 240 million bushels, but the enclosed chart shows plenty of years in which it totaled 300 million bushels or more.

The winter wheat crop was only 14% planted as of September 18th, compared to 19% last year and a 10-year average of 22%. This level ties with the previous record low set in 2000 (with data going back to at least 1985). Texas was only 8% planted vs. 21% on average, and Oklahoma was 4% planted vs. 16% on average. A forecast for drier weather for the southern plains for the next few weeks could delay plantings even more. Kansas winter wheat crop insurance for this season is set at $8.62, up from $7.14 this past year, and this should boost efforts to get the crop planted. However, producers will be planting on any land possible. If it is too dry, they can collect insurance and plant a summer crop in the spring.

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Wheat: Still No Sign of Lows but Extremely Oversold and Cheap to Corn

by on September 23, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Weakness in outside markets and the steep sell-off in corn and soybeans has helped keep the market in a steep downtrend. A spring wheat production report will be released next Friday and traders see adjustments lower in production due to lower yield and possibly an adjustment lower in harvested acreage. For the October 12th supply/demand report, traders see a significant adjustment higher in wheat feeding demand. The USDA current estimate for wheat feeding is only 240 million bushels but there have been five years since 1990 where wheat feeding was above 300 million with two years above 375 million bushels. With wheat at a discount to corn, traders see stronger feed usage. Export demand remains slow as Black Sea region producers are expected to export 33.2 million tonnes this season from 14.39 million tonnes last year. The surge in exports from this region means sharply lower exports from Europe, US, Australia and others. Rains are clearing out of Oklahoma this week and the forecast for the southern plains looks dry. December wheat collapsed to trade down to 14 month lows yesterday as traders see weaker global demand and liquidation of speculative longs in riskier asset classes like commodity markets. A surge in the US dollar plus a massive sell-off in other commodity markets and equity markets sparked selling in wheat to drive the market to the lowest level since July of 2010. Weekly export sales came in at 679,500 metric tonnes which was much higher than expected. As of September 15th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 49.5% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 49.8%. Sales of 379,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Egypt bought 240,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia in their tender. Argentina officials see the 2011/12 wheat crop at 11-13 million tonnes which would be down from 14.7 million the prior season due to dry weather. While planted area was up 2.9% from last year, dry and windy weather has impacted yield. The International Grain Council raised their world production forecast by 2 million tonnes to 679 million tonnes. Taiwan is tendering to buy 52,920 tonnes of US wheat.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Open interest is up more than 21,000 contracts in the last 12 trading sessions during a period when the market has fallen $1.40. This suggests that fund traders have built a hefty net short position and when the smoke finally clears from negative outside market forces, wheat is likely to see a strong short-covering bounce. For now, the selling trend persists. The chart pattern is quite negative and the move under the harvest lows (639 December) projects a resumption of the downtrend with 573 1/2 as a longer-term swing objective. Resistance is 639 and 650. The market is extremely oversold after the recent break and futures could turn up at anytime.


Wheat: May be Tied Closer to Corn for Today’s USDA Report

by on September 12, 2011

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The USDA supply/demand report should impact wheat prices today but wheat may still take direction from the corn market. There is no production data for wheat as spring wheat production will show up in the small grains report at the end of the month. Traders see US ending stocks tightening about 5 million bushels from 671 million last month. Some traders see a bigger drop in ending stocks and a much larger wheat feeding number for this report. Traders will also monitor the world production and world ending stock numbers. December wheat closed moderately lower on the session Friday and down 45 3/4 cents for the shortened week. A surge higher in the US dollar led by European debt concerns helped to drive the market lower into the mid-session and to the lowest level since August 11th. Talk of some rains for the southern plains this week and ideas that Russia and Ukraine will continue to undercut US exporters helped to pressure. Weekly export sales came in at 512,200 metric tonnes which was a bit higher than expected. As of September 1st, cumulative wheat sales stand at 42.5% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 44.8%. Sales of 440,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. India sold 50,000 tonnes of wheat to Bangladesh. France exported 1.25 million tonnes of wheat in July, down 7% from last year. The Commitments of Traders reports as of September 6th showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 2,336 contracts, a decrease of 1,625 contracts for the week. The short-covering trend is seen as somewhat supportive.
Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net short position of 26,784 contracts, down 679. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 202,898 contracts, down 3,890 contracts for the week.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: A French nuclear accident today may have some impact. Wheat direction today may be tied closer to the corn numbers for the report than anything else. On supportive news, 755 and 764 1/2 become first good resistance levels for December wheat. On bearish news, 702 1/2 is next key support.

FOMC Minutes Show Fed May Provide Further Easing

by on August 31, 2011

Private job estimates over night come in a little under expectations and modestly below last month’s Payroll numbers. Rumors that the Fed will be there to provide easing if necessary, but there does seem to be some divided opinions in the FOMC. However, there are members who are willing to do some more innovative things to help the economy. US grain crops are still a concern with both corn and soybean yields coming more in question. Gold and Silver have priced in some significant uncertainty, but we do not think the news will be there to support.

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