Tag Archives: Yen

Currencies: Dollar Getting Support from Euro-Zone; Waiting on FOMC

by on January 25, 2012

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar has ground out a moderate gain this morning as prices are holding well above this week’s lows. While the market appears to be getting used to unresolved debt problems in Europe, attention will shift back to the US later on during today’s session. Post-meeting comments from the FOMC could erode a portion of the Dollar’s recent support, especially if the Fed points towards more accommodative US monetary policy during the near future. A private survey of US housing could also provide further direction for the Dollar if there are surprisingly positive results on a report that is expected to be softer but the market may ultimately be waiting to see the Fed’s outlook before letting the Dollar put together any substantial recovery. The Dollar may find resistance near the 80.50 level during today’s session, and it may be able to extend today’s rebound if the Fed meeting results do not erode market sentiment.

EURO: The March Euro failed to benefit from decent economic data out of Germany and has slid back below the 130.00 level this morning. The failure to finalize a Greek debt swap deal has become a serious impediment to any further recovery in the Euro, and that news has certainly kept risk concerns at elevated levels. If Euro zone nations start to have problems with the market taking down their debt at upcoming auctions, the March Euro could end up revisiting the mid-January lows again during the near future. The March Euro may find support near the 129.25 level today, and it will need some sense of resolution with peripheral EU debt problems in order to revive this month’s recovery.

YEN: The March Yen remains in a tailspin this morning, as prices have fallen to their lowest levels since mid-December. Last night’s Japanese Trade numbers confirmed market expectations of Japan’s first annual trade deficit in over three decades, which for their export-driven economy has underscored the sluggish conditions in Japan right now. Japanese authorities may be keeping their powder dry, with the market doing their job of weakening the Yen, but any intervention at this point would send prices back towards the late October lows in a hurry. The March Yen may find support at the 127.85 level today, and it should remain on the defensive during the balance of today’s session.

SWISS: The March Swiss has come under pressure this morning from Euro zone debt anxiety but may find support near the recent lows, as the market may be looking forward to a test of the 1.20 Swiss/Euro rate, that the Swiss National Bank has vowed to defend. While any breakthrough is unlikely, look for the Swiss to outperform the Euro, as long as Greek debt concerns weigh on market sentiment. The March Swiss may find support near the 107.00 level and it is likely to stay well below this week’s highs as long as Euro zone debt problems hold onto the market’s attention.

POUND: The March Pound is holding up fairly well considering the negative impact of today’s weak UK GDP number, as well as the reaction to the Bank of England meeting minutes that may be pointing towards fresh quantitative easing measures during the near future. If macro-economic sentiment can produce a rebound later on during the session, the March Pound could rally back into new high ground for this current rally. The March Pound may find resistance at the 156.00 level and may be on track to post a new 2012 high, if today’s intra-day recovery gains further momentum.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The March Canadian has fallen well below Monday’s 21/2 month highs as yesterday’s Canadian Retail Sales numbers highlighted the lukewarm tone of recent economic data. If the March Canadian is to be more reliant on commodity and equity markets to extend this rally, any chance of a rebound today may have to wait until FOMC post-meeting comments are out of the way. The March Canadian may find support near the 98.25 level this morning and it may need to see a broad-market turnaround in order to retest this week’s highs.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar should find enough support from ongoing Euro zone anxiety to hold onto early gains but could fall back towards this week’s lows if the market receives post-FOMC meeting comments as a sign of easier US monetary policy in the near future. If there is a widespread improvement with broad-markets sentiment later in the session, the March Pound could rally up towards a new weekly high.

Currencies: Good China Data Pressures Dollar

by on January 17, 2012

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar has come under significant pressure this morning as well received Chinese economic data helped to lift macro-economic sentiment. In addition, global markets appear to have taken the negative impact of recent credit rating downgrades in Europe in stride. While this has eroded a large portion of the Dollar’s recent safe-haven support, a further pullback beyond last week’s lows may require clearer signs of progress from Greek debt negotiations. With few US economic numbers this morning that could diminish broad-market optimism, however, the Dollar should remain squarely on the defensive during the balance of today’s session. The Dollar may find support around the 80.95 level and may need another European risk flare-up to recover any sizable portion of this morning’s losses. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of January 10th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 44,730 contracts, an increase of 2,337 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 53,206 contracts, an increase of 3,266 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 8,476 contracts, an increase of 929 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 53,206 contracts. This represents an increase of 3,266 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

EURO: The March Euro took a large step away from Friday’s lows as the market appears to have gotten past the recent series of credit rating downgrades. A private survey of German economic sentiment also saw the largest one-month increase in history, providing further strength to this morning’s Euro rebound. The wild card remains Greek debt, as a total collapse in current negotiations could derail this week’s rally. The March Euro may find resistance around the 128.20 level and should hold onto a large portion of this week’s recovery by the close. *The “combined” spec and fund Net Short position in the Euro has hit a new record level at 182,037 contracts. *The Non-Commercial Net Short position in the Euro has hit a new record level at 153,142 contracts. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of January 10th for Euro showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 153,142 contracts, an increase of 15,396 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 182,037 contracts, an increase of 14,454 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 28,895 contracts, a decrease of 943 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 182,037 contracts. This represents an increase of 14,453 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.

YEN: The March Yen was briefly able to post a new 2-month high before sliding back into the recent trading range. Strong Chinese data has provided some additional support for the March Yen but the upside may be limited given the ongoing threat of central bank intervention. The March Yen may test resistance near the 130.90 level and should hold onto moderate support throughout the session.

SWISS: The March Swiss received a boost from improved Euro zone sentiment, which may have put the brakes on a move towards new low ground. Uncertainty with Swiss National Bank leadership may increase market talk for a removal of their current peg with the Euro, but Swiss economic data needs to improve dramatically to take monetary easing measures fully off the table. The March Swiss may find resistance again near the 105.95 level and should continue to benefit from rising market sentiment in Europe.

POUND: The March Pound has been able to maintain early strength this morning as
improving sentiment from the Euro zone helped to lift prices well clear of Friday’s lows for the move. A sharp drop in UK inflation this morning may have increased chances for fresh quantitative easing later this year but strong equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic will help to underpin this morning’s gains. The March Pound may find resistance near the 154.00 level and would be a major beneficiary of any further broad market rally in equities.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The March Canadian found considerable support from overnight Chinese economic data as well as from stronger energy and metals prices that lifted to a 2-week high this morning. With the Bank of Canada unlikely to show any sign of easier Canadian monetary policy at today’s meeting, the March Canadian should be able to extend this morning’s early rally. The March Canadian may find resistance near the 98.80 area and could post a new high for 2012 if equity and commodity markets put together a strong up move later in the session.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar is likely to remain under pressure thorough the rest of today’s trading and would need another risk flare-up to see any substantial recovery from these current price levels. The March Canadian could make a strong move above the 99.00 level if broad-market optimism fuels a rally in global equity and commodity markets.

Currencies: US Dollar Maintains Its Safe Haven Roll

by on November 15, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar remains in safe-haven mode this morning as overseas risk concerns continue to smolder. While there has been no “watershed” event that has reinforced Dollar support, a clear lack of confidence with Euro zone debt solutions has lifted prices back towards last week’s highs. US economic data this morning could ease concerns on this side of the Atlantic but market focus is likely to remain on the Euro zone. The most recent Commitment of Traders report indicated that non-Commercial traders were trimming their net-long Dollar position as of last Tuesday, even as the market was heading up into new high ground. The Dollar is likely to remain well supported at these levels unless there is a major improvement in macro-economic sentiment during the near future. The Dollar may find resistance near the 78.20 level this morning and is likely to gain ground as EU debt problems dominate the markets. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of November 8th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 22,088 contracts, a decrease of 1,796 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 25,431 contracts, a decrease of 1,368 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 3,343 contracts, an increase of 428 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 25,431 contracts. This represents a decrease of 1,368 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

EURO: The Dec Euro has been on the defensive this morning, unable to find benefit from well-received GDP numbers out of Germany and France. Ongoing EU debt problems continue to drag prices lower, as recent optimism with Italian and Greek government changes has evaporated quickly. The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed that non-Commercial traders were reducing their net-short Euro position as of last Tuesday, even as the market was sliding down to new lows for November. Unless there is some market confidence in an eventual resolution with these debt problems, the Dec Euro will have difficulty regaining these recent losses. The Dec Euro may find support near the 135.00 level, and could be one negative news headline away from posting a new low for this sell off. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of November 8th for Euro showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 48,250 contracts, a decrease of 6,280 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 77,113 contracts, a decrease of 984 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 28,863 contracts, an increase of 5,296 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 77,113 contracts. This represents a decrease of only 984 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.

YEN: The December Yen made a sizable recovery from overnight losses, and is climbing back towards the recent highs this morning. There is clearly a flight to safety out of the Euro zone that is providing fuel for this rebound but the shadow of potential intervention will hang over the market as prices continue to climb higher. The December Yen may find resistance near the 130.15 level, and is likely to stay below Monday’s high for the move unless the EU debt situation starts to unravel later on today.

SWISS: The Dec Swiss has been in a tailspin this morning, with prices reaching their lowest levels since mid-October. A comment from a Swiss National Bank official that the Swiss Franc was “still very strong” has revived ideas that the current “peg” with the Euro may be raised to 1.25 or higher. The December Swiss may find support near the 109.00 level and will remain under pressure as long as the market feels that a “peg” change may be on the near-term horizon.

POUND: The Dec Pound finally made a downside breakout this morning, although prices have seen little follow-through to the downside. Today UK CPI numbers were weaker than expected, which may encourage the Bank of England to become more aggressive with their quantitative easing measures. The Dec Pound may find support near the 158.30 level, and may have trouble putting together a recovery unless the EU debt situation provides some signs of progress.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Dec Canadian has been pressured by weak commodity and equity markets, and has found little relief from sluggish Canadian economic data. Unless there is a turnaround in market sentiment, the Dec Canadian is likely to make new lows for this sell off. The Dec Canadian may find support near the 97.35 level today, and could see heavier losses if outside markets continue to deteriorate.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar should hold onto this morning’s gains through the balance of today’s session, although any improvement in market sentiment could bring this rally to a quick halt. If sentiment remains negative during the session, the Dec Swiss could extend today’s slide to a fresh low for the move.

FOREX: Focus on EU Situation

by on October 10, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar remains under heavy pressure going into this morning’s trading, with prices sliding to their lowest levels since late September. Renewed optimism towards a resolution to the Euro zone debt crisis has dampened global risk concerns, which in turn eroded a large portion of the Dollar’s safe-haven support. The most recent Commitment of Traders report indicated that the “combined” spec and fund net long Dollar position has hit a new record level at 49,966 contracts as of last Tuesday, even after the pullback from new high ground. As long as global optimism receives a boost from overseas risk developments, the Dollar is likely to remain on the defensive during the balance of todays trading. The Dollar may find support near the 78.20 level early this morning but could reach lower levels if global equity markets can maintain their strength throughout the session. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of October 4th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 40,671 contracts, an increase of 1,981. The Commercial traders were net short 49,966 contracts, an increase of 2,871. The Nonreportable traders were net long 9,295 contracts, an increase of 891 contracts. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 49,966 contracts. This represents an increase of 2,872 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

EURO: The Dec Euro started out this week with a huge upside move, clearly finding strength from weekend discussions between German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy. While details are sorely lacking at this point, the magic words “bank recapitalization” have helped to lift prices back into the late September trading range. The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed that the Nonreportable Net Short Dollar position hit a new record level at 28,567 contracts as of last Tuesday, before the market started to recover late last week. Given the severity of today’s move, any sort of negative news item from inside the Euro zone could derail this rally in a hurry. For now, the Dec Euro may find resistance near the 135.90 level during today’s trading and should hold today’s early strength through the rest of the session. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of October 4th for Euro showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 78,897 contracts, a decrease of 746 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 107,464 contracts, a decrease of 464 contracts. The Nonreportable traders were net short 28,567 contracts, an increase of 282 contracts. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net short position of 107,464 contracts. This represents a decrease of 464 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.

YEN: The December Yen has posted moderate gains this morning, although prices have remained well within the recent trading range. Improving Euro zone sentiment may erode a portion of the December Yen’s recent safe-haven support while the threat of intervention may resume once Japanese markets start up after today’s holiday. The December Yen may find resistance near the 130.80 level, and may require a flare-up of risk tensions in order to climb back towards the recent highs during the near future.

SWISS: While the Dec Swiss has posted strong gains this morning, prices have only recovered a small portion of losses since the August highs. There has been continued talk that the Swiss National Bank could adjust their “peg” to the Euro well above the current 1.20/1 level, which could send prices back towards the recent lows. The Dec Swiss may find resistance near the 110.20 level today, and for the moment should continue to benefit from Euro zone optimism.

POUND: The Dec Pound was able to extend the post-Bank of England meeting up to new highs this morning, finding a large measure of support from potential Euro zone bank recapitalization measures. While the full impact of last week’s UK quantitative easing news may not be known for a while, the Dec Pound should find support from stronger equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic. The Dec Pound may find resistance around the 156.60 level later on this morning, and will remain strong as long as macro-economic sentiment continues to improve.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Dec Canadian has recovered most of Friday’s late pullback, and is climbing back towards new highs for this rebound. A very strong Canadian jobs numbers last week is combining with stronger commodity prices this week to provide a large amount of strength to the Dec Canadian this morning. The Dec Canadian may find resistance near the 97.35 level during the session, with potential for further gains if broad-market sentiment continues to improve.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: With no US economic data due to the Columbus Day holiday, market focus on diminishing Euro zone risk concerns will likely keep the Dollar on the defensive during today’s session. If this continues, the December Yen may turn lower as safe-haven support begins to erode.

FORX: Getting Direction from Euro Zone

by on September 20, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar has given up overnight gains and is heading towards a new low for the week, as diminishing Euro zone risk concerns may be starting to erode recent safe-haven support. While an “all-clear” signal is still well down the road on Greek debt problems, stronger equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic will likely be to the Dollar’s disadvantage. Market focus may shift towards the start of the FOMC meeting later this morning, where the potential for new quantitative easing measures from the US Fed could put further pressure on the Dollar. Today’s US Housing number could provide an opportunity for the Dollar to rebound if they are better than expected but any return to recent highs may require another risk flare-up out of the Euro zone. The Dollar may find support around the 77.30 level today, and could extend this sell off even further to the downside if global market sentiment continues to improve.

EURO: The Dec Euro has been through a volatile overnight session but may be finding some strength heading into this morning. A rating cut of Italy’s sovereign debt kept the Dec Euro on the defensive last night, but positive developments from Greece are helping to turn the market around to the upside. If there is a formal announcement from Athens that further bailout funds are coming, the Dec Euro will likely make a run at last week’s highs. With many other Euro zone problems yet to be resolved, however, the Dec Euro may have trouble holding onto today’s rebound. The Dec Euro may find initial resistance near the 137.25 level later on this morning, and could reach further to the upside if news from Greece remains positive.

YEN: The December Yen has held onto this week’s strength, recovering from overnight pressure to post moderate gains this morning. While recent flight to quality support may ease now that there are some positive signs from Greece, there is still plenty of potential trouble spots in that region to keep some measure of safe-haven support under the Yen. The December Yen may find resistance near the 131.20 level, and may have difficulty climbing above that area if conditions in the Euro zone continue to show some improvement.

SWISS: The Dec Swiss has recovered from overnight losses this morning, but the Swiss continues to have trouble recovering from this month’s steep losses. Today’s Swiss Trade surplus data indicated a large decline from the previous month, and that may provide further evidence to the Swiss National Bank to maintain their current “peg” to the Euro. The Dec Swiss may find resistance again near the 114.10 level today, and will need to hear positive development from Greece in order to retest last week’s highs.

POUND: The Dec Pound has been able to post moderate gains this morning but remains solidly at the bottom end of this month’s large sell off. Although the Dec Pound will be a main beneficiary of improved macro-economic sentiment, recent comments by Bank of England officials, hinting at new quantitative easing for the UK are going to weigh on prices. The Dec Pound may find resistance around the 157.25 level this morning, and could see additional gains if there is further positive news items out of Athens later on during the session.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Dec Canadian has found support from a broad-based commodity rebound this morning, although prices have posted only moderate gains so far. Today’s Canadian economic data may help to maintain this rebound but any chance for a return to last week’s highs may require the help of a global “relief” rally, triggered by good news from the Greece debt situation. The Dec Canadian may find resistance near the 101.00 area later today, and will likely need to have much lower global risk concerns, in order to have any extended recovery from these lower price levels.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar is taking direction this morning from events in the Euro zone, so any additional positive news on the Greece debt situation could send prices down towards the recent lows. The Dec Euro, Dec Swiss, and Dec Pound would all clearly benefit if the news that additional aid for Greece has been formally approved reaches the market later today.

Currency: Dollar Should Hold Early Gains; May Extend if No Negative “Surprises”

by on September 8, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar has posted a small gain this morning, as trading has remained fairly quiet in front of today’s important market events. While lower global risk concerns are reflected by gains in other financial and commodity markets, the Dollar has generally held onto recent strength as other “safe-haven” assets are feeling more of a negative impact. Low expectations for tonight’s speech by President Obama to be a “game-changing” event may put more emphasis on upcoming US data as a gauge for the market, although any potential for new US quantitative easing may not be fully priced into the market just yet. The Dollar may find support near the 75.50 level early on in the session but will have difficulty retesting this week’s highs unless there are more risk flare-ups from the Euro zone later on today.

EURO: The Sept Euro continues to have trouble recovering from the recent slide in prices, with subdued market conditions helping to keep the market well away from retesting this week’s lows. This morning’s European Central Bank meeting is not expected to produce a change with Euro zone interest rates, although the market’s focus will likely remain on Greek and Italian economic problems. There is a strong chance that post-ECB meeting comments could help to lift the Sept Euro later on this morning but any chance of a sustained recovery will require a much calmer situation with the peripheral EU nations. The Sept Euro may find resistance near the 141.00 level after the ECB meeting but a flare-up of debt problems in Athens or Rome could send prices right back down towards this week’s lows in a hurry.

YEN: The September Yen has avoided a strong move in either direction this morning, with prices consolidating below the recent trading range. Today’s sluggish Japanese economic data has made little lasting impact on the market, as ongoing problems from the Euro zone may be providing a moderate flight to quality lift. The September Yen may find resistance near the 129.50 level today but would need a significant risk flare-up from Europe in order to retest the late August highs.

SWISS: The Sept Swiss remains solidly on the defensive, with today’s slide putting prices at their lowest levels since before the Memorial Day holiday. This morning’s Swiss Unemployment numbers provided little support for the markets, with most of the remaining safe-haven support for the Sept Swiss being obliterated by this week’s meltdown. The Sept Swiss may find support near the 115.55 area during the session, and is likely to stay down near this week’s lows even in the event of a full-scale Euro zone risk flare-up.

POUND: The Sept Pound recovered from a new low for the move overnight, with prices climbing back towards unchanged levels in front of the Bank of England meeting this morning. Although the chances for a UK rate hike are microscopic at best, some positive post-meeting rhetoric could help to lift prices further away from the recent lows. The Sept Pound may find resistance near the key 160.00 level this morning, and may find further benefit from stronger global equity markets once the BOE and ECB meetings are out of the way.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Sept Canadian continues to benefit from improving macro-economic sentiment, although prices still have some ways to go before reaching their late August highs. With Canadian economic conditions not as comparatively strong as was the case earlier this year, the Sept Canadian may be more dependent on carryover strength from energy markets in order to extend this week’s recovery. The Sept Canadian may find resistance near the 101.75 level today, and could see a much stronger move above that area if commodity and equity markets put together a large recovery.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar should hold onto moderate gains early on in the session, and could find further strength if today’s US data avoids any negative surprises. The Sep Canadian would be a major beneficiary if global equity and commodity market have a broad-based rally later on in the session.

Currencies: More Gains in Dollar Will Require US Equity Market Strength

by on August 8, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar has been weak this morning but has risen well above the evening lows, in what has been another turbulent overnight session. Friday’s US debt downgrade by S&P may be pressuring US equity markets, but the strength of Treasury futures may be providing some measure of support for the Dollar. In addition, a turnaround in Europe after early optimism could lift the Dollar up into positive territory later on today. The most recent Commitment of Traders reports showed that non-Commercial traders reduced their net-long Dollar position as of last Tuesday, before prices made a large upside surge late last week. It will be difficult for the Dollar to get past severe losses in US equity markets today, but this morning’s shift in risk concern back across the Atlantic may help to keep prices well away from the recent lows. The Dollar may find support near the 74.50 level during today’s session but prices will continue to have a bumpy ride until the close. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of August 2nd for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 627 contracts, a decrease of 1,976 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 3,342 contracts, a decrease of 1,683 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 2,715 contracts, an increase of 293 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 3,342 contracts. This represents a decrease of 1,683 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

EURO: The Sept Euro gave back substantial gains during the past few hours, and has dropped back towards unchanged levels this morning. An agreement to have the ECB buy Spanish and Italian debt was well received by the market early in the overnight session, but this optimism could not be sustained for long. The most recent Commitment of Traders report indicated non Commercial traders had a substantial reduction in their net-long Euro position as of last Tuesday, a period when the market was descending towards the recent lows. Given how far the Sept Euro has pulled back from overnight highs, there may be further downside left to this sell off unless EU officials can further calm the markets. The Sept Euro may find support near the 142.25 level, and may need some help in order to ease this morning’s pressure. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of August 2nd for Euro showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 979 contracts, a decrease of 15,462 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 4,039 contracts, a decrease of 17,299 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 3,061 contracts, a decrease of 1,836 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 4,040 contracts. This represents a decrease of 17,298 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

YEN: The September Yen posted sharp gains during overnight trading, and is close to fully recovering from last week’s central bank intervention. While 4.5 trillion Yen down the drain may be painful for the Bank of Japan to swallow, the current flight to quality tilt may have been difficult to overcome given the pressure on global equity markets. Further intervention is by no means off the table, as the weekend G7 statement may hint at concerted action during the near future. The September Yen may find resistance near the 129.25 level today, and is likely to hold onto these large gains until global equity markets can put the brakes on this current meltdown.

SWISS: The Sept Swiss made another new record high during overnight trading and continues to post solid gains in spite of a substantial pullback from new high ground. As long as global equity markets remains under pressure during today’s session, the Sept Swiss will remain fairly close to these fresh highs. The Swiss National Bank may be closer to intervention now that last week’s rate cut had little lasting effect, but they may not step into the market until safe-haven support has eased somewhat. The Sept Swiss may find resistance near the 132.00 level later on today, and will remain well supported as long as global equity markets are heading to the downside.

POUND: The Sept Pound fell back from a 2-month high during the overnight session but has held onto moderate gains this morning. While overnight strength may have due in large part to carryover support from Euro zone debt support of Italy and Spain, the Sept Pound could be more likely to hold onto this morning’s gains. The Sept Pound may retest resistance near the 164.20 level this morning, and could see a further recovery if global equity markets can find a bottom.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Sept Canadian remains on the defensive this morning, and has fallen nearly 5 cents before last month’s highs. While recent Canadian economic data has been comparatively strong, a $16 decline in crude oil prices since July 26th has been difficult to overcome. The Sept Canadian may find support near the 101.00 level, and will likely need a turnaround in the energy markets in order to rebound from these current prices levels.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: While the Dollar has been able to make a large recovery from overnight lows, further gains from these price levels will require some strength from US equity markets. If equity markets both sides of the Atlantic call mount a recovery later on this morning, both the Sept Yen and Sept Swiss could see a substantial pullback from current prices levels.

Currencies: Dollar Needs Positive US Numbers; Canadian Likely To New Highs

by on July 26, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar continues to fall sharply this morning, reaching the lowest price levels since early May. Last night’s speeches by President Obama and Speaker Boehner were not well received by the markets, and have reinforced this week’s negative Dollar tone. This morning’s US data could provide some limited support to the Dollar if the numbers exceed market expectations. Unless there are some signs of progress towards a debt ceiling agreement, the Dollar is likely to remain on the defensive during today’s session. The Dollar may retest support near the 73.70 level later this morning, and could easily make a new low for 2011 if the situation in Washington continues to deteriorate.

EURO: The Sept Euro was able to make a strong move to the upside, easily reaching 3-week highs during overnight trading. Lukewarm private surveys of German and French consumer sentiment have taken some steam out of this rally but the market’s focus on US problems is likely to keep the Sept Euro well supported at these levels. A fresh flare-up of Euro zone debt concerns may cause some problems for the Sept Euro, however, as there are concerns that last week’s aid package for Greece may not be the last time help is needed for an EU nation that subject is far from completed. The Sept Euro may find resistance around the 144.80 level, and is likely to hold onto these gains as long as US debt problems dominate the news headlines.

YEN: The September Yen has gone through an extremely volatile overnight session but has held onto moderate gains this morning. Statements expressing “official” concern with recent Yen strength may be an early sign that the Japanese are getting ready for intervention, whether on their own or with concerted action involving other central banks. The September Yen may find resistance again near the 128.50 level but recent safe-haven support may not be enough to support prices if central banks start selling.

SWISS: The Sept Swiss continues to post new record highs, with market concern over the US debt situation providing plenty of flight to quality support. If there are some positive signs of progress towards a US debt ceiling agreement, the Sept Swiss could lose a significant portion of these recent gains. The Sept Swiss may find resistance again near the 125.00 level this morning, and may find new high ground once again, if there are few signs of progress from Washington.

POUND: The Sept Pound was able to overcome a sluggish UK GDP number this morning to post a new high for the current up move. While recent data may have pushed a Bank of England rate hike into 2012, UK austerity measures over the past year may be paying off now when contrasted with the gridlock on this side of the Atlantic. The Sept Pound may find resistance near the 164.00 level, and may gain further ground if US markets remain under pressure.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Sept Canadian posted a new high for the move during the overnight session, and remains fairly strong going into this morning. A rebound in commodity markets today is likely to provide some support, especially if crude oil makes a strong move above the $100 level. The Sept Canadian may find resistance near the 106.00 level, and may rise to another new high for this move if negative sentiment from the US does not weigh down the market.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar is likely to remain on the defensive this morning as long as US debt problems dominate the news headlines. Positively received US data later this morning could help the Dollar to recover some overnight losses. The Sept Canadian is likely to reach new high ground again as long as commodity prices maintain today’s rebound.

FOREX: Euro Vulnerable to Negative Sovereign Debt News

by on July 14, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar has made a large recovery from overnight lows but remains in negative territory in what has already been a turbulent session so far. With Fed Chairman Bernanke putting the Dollar on the defensive with hints of new quantitative easing, a credit rating agency warning for the US if the debt ceiling is not increased added further pressure to the market. A huge reversal during Asian trading provided some strength to the Dollar, but sentiment remains weak coming into this morning. Today’s US data may provide some support if the numbers exceed expectations, but the market may focus on Fed Chairman Bernanke’s Senate testimony to find further clarity on the potential for upcoming quantitative easing. The Dollar may find support near the 75.15 level this morning, and may need the market’s focus to shift back towards overseas problems in order to put together any extended recovery.

EURO: The Sept Euro was able to extend yesterday’s recovery but has fallen well back of the overnight highs this morning. Chairman Bernanke’s testimony and the US credit rating warning took the market’s attention away from a still problematic sovereign debt situation for the Euro zone. Today’s Italian debt auction had the highest 15-year yields on record, indicating there is still a large concern with contagion of this debt crisis. With one credit rating agency giving Greece the lowest debt rating in the world, there is still a large chance of this week’s rebound reversing to the downside. The Sept Euro may find resistance near the 141.90 level but needs some positive news on the sovereign debt front to hold onto these recent gains.

YEN: The September Yen posted a massive overnight range, and has traded back toward unchanged levels coming into this morning. Flight to quality out of the US and the Euro zone drove the market up to 4-month highs, but a huge selloff in Asian trading sent the market into a nosedive. There has been no official confirmation of intervention last night but the Bank of Japan may be ready at any time to sell the Yen at these current levels. The Sept Yen may find support near the 126.40 level, and may be vulnerable to further losses if central banks start to intervene against the Yen.

SWISS: The Sept Swiss built on yesterday’s huge gains with a large overnight rally, moving well beyond the previous record highs. Safe haven support from the Euro zone and the US clearly has been the main supportive factor for this rally, but a sizable pullback from the overnight highs may be a sign that this week’s upmove may have lost momentum. Swiss National Bank officials were already hinting at intervention when the Sept Swiss was below 121.00, so potential longs should be cautious now that market is far above that area. The Sept Swiss may find support near 122.40, and may need an additional risk flare-up in order to retest today’s new record high.

POUND: The Sept Pound made a 3-week high early in today’s session but is sliding back towards unchanged levels. Sluggish UK economic data has undermined the case for Bank of England rate hikes, so prices may be vulnerable to a sharp selloff if Euro zone debt problems regain the market’s focus. The Sept Pound may find support near the 160.80 level, and will need positive UK economic news in order to climb back towards the overnight highs.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Sept Canadian was able to post a new 2-month high today, but lukewarm commodity markets have weakened this current recovery rally. With few major Canadian economic numbers until next week, the Sept Canadian may have to depend on the strength of crude oil and gold to hold onto these recent gains. The Sept Canadian may find support near the 103.85 level this morning, and may need a broad-based commodity rally in order to post a new high again today.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar will start out this morning in negative territory but a huge recovery from overnight lows could gain momentum if today’s US numbers are positively received by the market. The Sept Euro could see a sharp decline if there are any negative headlines on their sovereign debt crisis during the session.

Currencies: Needs Good US Numbers to Hold Recent Gains

by on July 5, 2011

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: While the Dollar has shown some strength this morning, prices have only recovered a small portion of last week’s losses. There has been some safe-haven support from news that Chinese banks have understated loans to local governments, but inconsistent US data over the past few weeks may be keeping Dollar gains in check. There will be few US economic numbers in front of Friday’s Payroll data, so the Dollar is likely to take some direction from overseas risk concerns. The most recent Commitment of Traders report indicated that non-Commercial traders had more than doubled their net-long Dollar position as of last Tuesday, which was during a sharp pullback from the recent highs. The Dollar may find resistance around the 74.95 level this morning but should hold enough support to remain well above the recent lows. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 28th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 12,971 contracts, an increase of 7,852 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 17,827 contracts, an increase of 8,130 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 4,857 contracts, an increase of 279 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 17,828 contracts. This represents an increase of 8,131 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

EURO: The Sept Euro fell back from overnight highs, coming under pressure from a weak Euro zone Retail Sales number this morning. With the Greek debt situation becoming less of a market factor, the Sept Euro may take more direction from economic conditions in the “core” Euro zone nations. Last week’s sluggish sentiment numbers may be an early warning sign that upcoming Euro zone data may fall short of expectations. The Sept Euro may find support near the 144.25 level during today’s session, and could fall further to the downside if there is a sudden risk flare-up out of the Greek debt situation. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 28th for Euro showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 34,756 contracts, an increase of 2,911 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 43,435 contracts, an increase of 2,551 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 8,679 contracts, a decrease of 361 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 43,435 contracts. This represents an increase of 2,550 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

YEN: The September Yen extended Friday’s sell off into this week, and is now closing in on a one month low this morning. The resignation of a key minister in the Japanese government has added pressure on the September Yen, which may find little benefit from an economy still recovering from the effects of the Sendai earthquake this spring. The September Yen may find support near the 123.10 level, with the potential for a downside breakout seen if that price area does not hold.

SWISS: The Sept Swiss was able to post a strong recovery from last week’s sell off but prices remain far below record high levels. There has been some safe-haven support from today’s poor Euro zone data, but the Sept Swiss may need further EU debt problems in order to reach new high ground again. The Sept Swiss may find resistance just above the 119.00 level today, and could see further gains if there are fresh headlines from the Greek debt situation.

POUND: The Sept Pound has been strengthened by a surprise jump in a private UK services survey this morning and it has climbed to the highest price levels since June 22nd. While today’s number may be in contrast to recent sluggish UK data, further strong economic numbers may be needed to persuade the Bank of England to hike rates during the near future. The Sept Pound may find resistance near the 161.25 level again this morning, but gains may be capped until there is further evidence of UK economic recovery.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Sept Canadian has been unable to take advantage of strong crude oil and gold prices this morning, and has drifted away from Friday’s highs. Even so, the Sept Canadian’s huge recovery from 3-month lows should help to keep prices well supported at these levels. The Sept Canadian may find support near the 103.50 area but could see a retest of last week’s highs if there is further broad-based strength for commodities during today’s session.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar should start out this week with moderate strength, and will need today’s US data to avoid a negative surprise in order to maintain these gains. The Sept Canadian could retest last week’s highs for the move if there is a strong rally in energy markets later today.

← Older posts